Upcoming Match-ups

Early NFL Props to Target for Conference Championships

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Jan 24, 2023 · 11:19 AM PST

49ers QB Brock Purdy shaking hands
Jan 14, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) talks to his offensive linemenin the fourth quarter of a wild card game against the Seattle Seahawks at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
  • There are some NFL props that bettors should be strongly considering as the lines are opening for this week’s Conference Championship games
  • Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles has a nose for the end zone like few other NFL QBs
  • Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce just keeps piling up the yardage

When it comes to the NFL player props to target for NFL Conference Championship Sunday, there’s a familiar feel to the picks.

Partially, that’s because there’s also a familiar feel to the matchups. In the AFC Championship Game, the Kansas City Chiefs are playing host to the Cincinnati Bengals in a rematch of last year’s title tilt. Over in the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers, losers last season to the Los Angeles Rams, are back for another crack at the crown. This year, the Niners are traveling to Philadelphia to face the Eagles.

The other factor to take into consideration is that this is the time of year when the cream rises to the top. If the names on some of these player prop picks look familiar, that’s because they are reliable performers who can be counted on to deliver the goods in big games.

Here’s a look at some of the key Conference Championship NFL player props you should be targeting as the NFL odds are opening up this week in the prop markets.

NFL Conference Championship Player Props to Target

Player (Team) Prop
Brock Purdy (SF) Under total interceptions
Jalen Hurts (PHI) Over rushing TD total
Joe Burrow (CIN) Under passing yardage total
Travis Kelce (KC) Over reception yardage total

See our top early prop bets to target for the NFL Conference Championship Sunday for Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Travis Kelce.

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49ers Purdy Doesn’t Beat Himself

Once known as Mr Irrelevant when he was the final player selected during his NFL Draft class, not only is San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy suddenly relevant, he might also be on the verge of a unique achievement. It’s entirely possible that he could win the Super Bowl before he loses his first NFL start.

Since taking over for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13, Purdy is 7-0 as an NFL starting QB. He’s thrown for 13 touchdowns and has been intercepted just four times.

The problem with most rookie QBs is they don’t know when to make a play and when to live another day. There’s strong evidence that Purdy gets that, though. He doesn’t make the type of game-turning mistakes often prone to first-year QBs.

Purdy’s interception rate is just 2.4%. He’s gone through three consecutive games and 95 pass attempts without being picked off. Take the price on the under for Purdy interceptions.

Pick: Brock Purdy (SF) under 0.5 interceptions (+126)

Bengals Burrow Through the Air

The passing yardage prop on Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow is set at 273.5 yards. In three career games against the Chiefs, Burrow has gone over that total twice.

The one game he went under, though, was in last year’s AFC Championship Game. In fact, during Cincinnati’s current 10-game win streak, Burrow has hit the over on 273.5 passing yards in only three games.

Watching Cincinnati’s absolute dismantling of the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round, Burrow operated the Bengals’ offense with surgical precision. Cincinnati put together scoring drives of 6:25, 6:11. and 5:33.

Burrow was in no hurry to get to the end zone. He was all about producing while at the same time, churning clock. That style of play doesn’t tend to add up to massively impressive personal stats. But it sure wins football games. As much as it will be tempting to play the passing yardage over in a Burrow vs Patrick Mahomes showdown, history tells us to go with the under.

Pick: Joe Burrow (CIN) under 273.5 passing yards (-133)

Eagles Hurts Just Finds End Zone

Is there anything that Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts can’t do on the football field? Well, okay, maybe losing a big game could be on that list.

If you need him to pass for a touchdown, he can do that. Hurts threw for two scores in Philly’s 38-7 Divisional Round drubbing of the New York Giants. In nine of his last 14 games, Hurts has passed for multiple TDs.

Running for a score is right up his alley, too. Hurts also did that against the Giants. He’s rambled for six TDs over his last five starts. With eight, he already has the second-most multi-rushing TD games by a QB in NFL history.

Hurts is the third QB in league history to throw for 3,500+ yards (3,701), 20+ TD passes (22) and rush for 10+ TDs (13) in a single season. Take Hurts to score an anytime TD in the NFC Conference Championship Game against the 49ers.

Pick: Jalen Hurts (PHI) anytime TD (+120)

Chiefs Kelce Is Money On Reception Yardage

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is the best in the business at his position. He was the lone NFL tight end this season to compile more than 1,000 yards in reception yardage (1,338). At the same time, Kelce was the only TE to hit triple digits in receptions (110) and double digits in TD catches (12).

On average this season, Kelce is going for 79.77 yards per game. It’s the fifth successive season in which he’s topped the 70 ypg plateau.

For Sunday’s AFC Championship Game against the Bengals, Kelce’s receiving yardage total is established at 76.5 yards. Mahomes is hurting, operating on a wonky ankle. When players are taken out of their comfort zone, the tendency is to go with trustworthy sources.

That was evident last week. Kelce finished the 27-20 Divisional Round win over the Jacksonville Jaguars with 14 catches for 98 yards and two TDs. He’ll again be the go-to pass catcher for KC against the Bengals.

Pick: Travis Kelce (KC) over 76.5 receiving yards (-119)

 

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