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NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread for Wild Card Weekend

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Jan 14, 2023 · 8:32 AM PST

49ers QB Brock Purdy after a win
Jan 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) gestures while jogging off the field after defeating the Arizona Cardinals at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
  • Get our top expert NFL Wild Card Weekend picks for January 14-16, 2023
  • Will the Bills cover as double-digit favorites? Can Tom Brady keep his undefeated streak against Dallas alive on MNF?
  • Read on for our expert NFL picks against the spread for Super Wild Card Weekend

It’s a clean sweep of Buccaneers picks in this week’s expert NFL picks against the spread for Wild Card Weekend. All three experts are riding with Tom Brady and the Bucs on MNF. Additionally, the 49ers as heavy home favorites over the Seahawks are also a popular pick.

Last week we compiled a 5-4 record in Week 18, leaving our season-long ATS record at 85-86-7.

Read on for our top expert Wild Card Weekend ATS picks against the spread below.

Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Wild Card Playoffs

Ryan Metivier Zach Reger Bob Duff
49ers (-9.5) 49ers (-9.5) Jaguars (+2.5)
Bills (-13.5) Giants (+3) Vikings (-3)
Buccaneers (+2.5) Buccaneers (+2.5) Buccaneers (+2.5)
19-31-3 Season Record 30-22-2 Season Record 29-20-1 Season Record

Odds as of January 13. Check out this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

Our expert ATS picks above include picks on six of the 12 teams playing on Super Wild Card Weekend, including three on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Dallas Cowboys.

Ryan Metivier ATS Picks

  • 49ers (-9.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook

San Francisco is riding a ten-game winning streak as they get set to host Geno Smith and the Seahawks. Seattle needed a host of things to go right last week to get into the playoffs and they got them. Still, they needed an overtime field goal to beat the now 5-12 LA Rams at home.

San Fran has been moneymakers for the bettors this season at 11-6 ATS. They have the top-ranked defense in the league and the fifth-ranked offense when it comes to yards per game allowed/gained.

The 49ers are 9.5-point favorites and the last 12 Wild Card teams that were favored by that amount or more are a perfect 12-0 both SU and ATS.

  • Bills (-13.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook

It’s the Skylar Thompson show for Miami this weekend and that just can’t be good. He was 20/31 last week against the Jets, throwing for only 151 yards. He didn’t throw an interception, but also didn’t throw a touchdown. The week prior, he was 12/21, 104 yards and one each, TD/INT.

The injuries don’t just end at QB though for Miami. RB Raheem Mostert broke his thumb last week. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both banged up. Three of five offensive linemen are listed as questionable. Linebackers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are also both questionable. How this mash unit will hang with a Buffalo team that has put up 28 or more points in six of their past eight games is anyone’s guess.

Josh Allen has plenty of weapons to use to attack Miami’s 27th-ranked pass defense which also ranks 28th in coverage rate as per PFF. As stated earlier, big favorites tend to do well on Wild Card Weekend, and we’ll back that to continue here.

  • Buccaneers (+2.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

I don’t feel good backing either of these teams right now but the options are limited for a third pick among just six games. Do you trust Dak Prescott who just went 14/37 for 128 yards in a 26-6 loss to the Commanders last week? Prescott led the league in interceptions this season with 15 despite playing only 12 games. He’s thrown a pick in seven straight games.

Alternatively, do you trust the Buccaneers who rank 25th in PPG? A Bucs team that won the NFC South win an 8-9 record, making them the worst team to qualify for this year’s playoffs? It’s a tough call.

But Dallas is 1-4 on grass, Brady is 7-0 versus Dallas and Brady is 20-8 SU on Monday Night Football. It was months ago, but Tampa held this Cowboys’ offense in check back in Week 1, winning 19-3 in Dallas. I’ll grab the short home dog here.

Bob Duff ATS Picks

  • Jaguars (+2.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

In Week 3, the Jacksonville Jaguars put a 38-10 beat down on the Chargers. That game was played in Los Angeles and the Jaguars weren’t nearly the team that they are now.

Both of these clubs are coming into the postseason riding hot streaks. Jacksonville has won five in a row and six of seven games. Los Angeles is 4-1 over the past five games. The Chargers are 4-0-1 ATS in the past five games while the Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

LA WR Mike Williams limped off the field in the Chargers’ Week 18 loss at Denver with back spasms. He’s a key cog in their offense and has since been ruled out for this weekend.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence threw for 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns. RB Travis Etienne ran for 1,125 yards. And Jacksonville’s coach Doug Pederson has won a Super Bowl.

  • Vikings (-3) at FanDuel Sportsbook

On Christmas Eve, Greg Joseph kicked a 61-yard field goal on the last play of the game to give Minnesota a 27-24 verdict over the Giants. That day, the Giants had no answers for Vikings All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson. He caught 12 passes for 133 yards and a TD.

Minnesota didn’t cover in that win over the Giants. The Vikings were just 7-9-1 ATS this season, while New York was an NFL-best 13-4. At the same time, the Vikings were 11-0 SU in games decided by the margin of one score.

  • Buccaneers (+2.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Seven times Tom Brady has faced the Dallas Cowboys. In all seven games, he’s beaten Dallas.

Anyone for eight-for-eight? At home, NFC South champion Tampa Bay is getting three points from the oddsmakers.

Brady is 7-3 SU and ATS as an underdog in the NFL Playoffs. The Cowboys are 1-4 SU in the last five postseason games. Dallas hasn’t won a road playoff game since 1992.

Zach Reger ATS Picks

  • 49ers (-9.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The 49ers and Seahawks know each other very well, but the 49ers have been the victor in this matchup of late. They beat Seattle both times this season, and what is even more impressive is that they covered the spread in both of those games as well. All eyes will be on Brock Purdy, but as long as he continues to do what he has done the past few weeks, the 49ers offense will have no problem moving the ball against this Seattle defense.

Other than the Colts-Bills matchup in 2020 that ended with a score of 27-24, seven seeds have struggled since they have been added to the playoffs. In the other three matchups, the seven seeds lost by 16 points, 21 points, and 12 points. I expect this one to be similar to those three games. The 49ers should roll.

  • Giants (+3) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The New York Giants have been the most profitable team against the spread this season with a record of 13-4. They have played in many close games and never seem out of the game when they give up a lead. I expect this game to be similar to the game we saw just a few weeks ago between these two teams.

The Giants rested their stars last week, so they will be ready to go and are wanting revenge after losing on a 61-yard field goal. This game will be close regardless, so New York will be able to stay within the number. They might even win this game outright.

  • Buccaneers (+2.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It’s tough to go against Tom Brady in the playoffs, so I will not. It is no secret that this has been a different Tom Brady team this season, but he has shown in a few games that he is still capable of leading game-winning drives.

The Cowboys are not going into this game with momentum. They just lost to the Commanders, and Dak Prescott has thrown 11 interceptions over his last seven games. He is also 0-4 against the spread in his career in the playoffs. This game will not be quite as ugly as their Week 1 matchup, but it will still be a close, low-scoring game. Tom Brady keeps the Buccaneers in this one.


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