Expert Week 17 NFL Picks Against the Spread
- This week our expert NFL ATS picks have a clear consensus best bet
- Can big favorites Philadelphia and San Fran cover against Arizona and Washington in our Week 17 ATS picks?
- Get all of our top NFL picks against the spread from these games and more here
As the regular season winds down the picture becomes clearer as to what teams are entering the playoff picture hot, who is not and who has something to play for. While some weeks our weekly NFL ATS picks cover all different teams, it seems our experts have zoned in on the Bucs and Rams among their most popular Week 17 NFL picks against the spread.
NFL Expert Picks Today
| Ryan Metivier | Bob Duff | Zach Reger |
|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers -2.5 | Rams -5.5 | Ravens -3.5 |
| 49ers -13.5 | Buccaneers -3 | Buccaneers -2.5 |
| Rams -5.5 | Eagles -11.5 | Bears -2.5 |
| Record: 22-23-3 | Record: 15-29-4 | Record: 23-23-2 |
After all three experts picked the Buccaneers to cover as 2.5-point favorites at home to the Saints, our Week 17 ATS picks also include plays on the 49ers, Rams, Eagles, Ravens and Bears.
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Ryan Metivier
Buccaneers (-2.5)
I can’t have nice things. After a 3-0 week in Week 15, it was 0-3 last week. Let’s jump on the Baker train to try to get things back on track here.
Baker Mayfield was NFC Offensive Player of the Week in Week 15 throwing for 381 yards and 4 TDs. He followed that up with 283 yards and 2 TDs last week and the Bucs won both of those games by margin 34-20 and 30-12. Tampa has won four straight and lead the NFC South at 8-7 and have already beaten the Saints once this season 26-9 in New Orleans.
The Saints are erratic and have just one win versus a team with a winning record this season.
49ers (-13.5)
My only concern here is San Fran coming off a short week and suffering a big defeat against the Ravens on Christmas Day, which could cause some form of a letdown here. It will be hard to get too focused versus the 4-11 Commanders.
But San Fran is tied with Philadelphia and Detroit for top spot in the NFC at 11-4 so still have some work to do. And it’s not like they haven’t been covering big numbers for some time now. Before the Ravens loss, they had routed teams by 31, 13, 18, 23, 12 and 16 points.
Flip over to the Washington side and they’ve given up 30, 28, 45, 45, 31 and 29 points in recent weeks. In that time, they’ve lost twice by 30 points and even let the Jets score 30 points in last week’s 30-28 loss. Washington looks to be turning to Jacoby Brissett at quarterback this week, but even that is in question as he’s dealing with a hamstring injury.
#49ers QB Brock Purdy needs 229 more passing yards to be the all-time single season leader in passing yards.
Jeff Garcia had 4,278 yards in 2001 and Purdy is currently at 4,050 this season. pic.twitter.com/85g7PnMyBx
— Always Faithful 24/7 (@Mark_Faithful87) December 29, 2023
Rams (-5.5)
The Giants are 20th in pass defense, 29th in run defense and 27th in points allowed (24.7). That’s not a good recipe for success versus the league’s 8th-ranked offense in the Rams.
Save for one overtime loss to the Ravens, looking at LA’s NFL teams trends, they have won five of their past six games and those wins have come by 8, 8, 17, 23 and 1 point.
Matthew Stafford has thrown for 14 TDs in his last five games. Cooper Kupp has a touchdown in 3/4 games plus two 100-yard games. Puka Nacua has two TDs and two 100-yard games including 164 yards last week. And Kyren Williams has four touchdown in six games while averaging 126.5 yards rushing in those games. Rams to cover for me in this week’s NFL picks against the spread.
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Bob Duff
Rams (-5.5)
The Rams have covered in their past five games. Then again, the Giants are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings with their NFC rivals from LA. Overall, New York is 4-1 ATS through the past five games.
Are you really willing to ride a team that’s started three different QBs against Matthew Stafford, arguably the hottest QB in the NFL right now?
Buccaneers (-2.5)
The Buccaneers – yes, the Buccaneers – own a share of the NFL’s best ATS mark. Tampa Bay, Detroit and Baltimore are all 10-5 ATS. Sure, this reads like one of those which one of these things is not like the others. But the fact of the matter is that the Lions, Ravens and Buccaneers could all wind up as division winners.
On paper, the Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five visits to Tampa Bay. But the Bucs have covered in three straight overall and seven of the past nine games. Meanwhile, this season’s version of the Saints are an NFL-worst 4-10-1 ATS.
Let’s get that NFC South crown. pic.twitter.com/tVvclHk5Z4
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 29, 2023
Eagles (-11.5)
Two weeks ago, the Cardinals were whipped 45-29 by the 49ers as 12-point underdogs. Arizona is 0-4 ATS the last four times the club was a double-digit road underdog in the football betting lines.
Yes, the Eagles were the 14-point home chalk over the Giants last week and failed to cover. Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS over the past four games. But if Arizona can’t fix what ails you, is there really any hope?
Zach Reger
Ravens (-3.5)
In the battle for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, I like the home team. The Ravens are coming off a big road victory over the 49ers and return home to face the Dolphins without Jaylen Waddle.
The Dolphins just beat the Cowboys at home, but Dallas is a much different team away from Jerry World. The Ravens are the more trustworthy team as Lamar Jackson continues his MVP campaign.
Buccaneers (-2.5)
The Bucs are red-hot. Baker Mayfield has thrown for 1,010 yards, 9 touchdowns, and one interception during Tampa Bay’s four-game winning streak. They have also won each of those games by at least three points.
They now host the Saints, who have covered the spread in just four games this season. New Orleans has looked rough on both sides of the ball of late, so the Bucs get the edge as they try to clinch an NFC South crown.
Bears (-2.5)
Chicago has looked like a new team over the last few weeks. Their defense has been stout, and Justin Fields and co. have been making plays. The Falcons are coming off a big win at home against the Colts, but they are still Atlanta.
The Falcons are 2-4 against the spread on the road, including losing to the Panthers just two weeks ago. The home team gets the job done on Sunday.
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Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
