Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction, Spread & Odds for Saturday
- The Ravens come in rested for the Divisional Round after getting a week off last week as the AFC’s #1 seed
- CJ Stroud won his first career playoff game in a route of the Browns in the Wild Card Round
- Get the Texans vs Ravens odds, picks and predictions for the Divisional Round Playoffs here
A potential MVP winner in Lamar Jackson, meets the likely Offensive Rookie of the Year in CJ Stroud, in the AFC Divsional Round Playoffs on Saturday, January 20, 2024 at 4:30 pm EST. It’s the #1-ranked Ravens favored by 9.5 points over the #4 seed Texans in the Texans vs Ravens odds.
Read on for the full Houston vs Baltimore odds and our top Texans vs Ravens prediction here.
Texans vs Ravens Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | +9.5 (-110) | +350 | Over 43.5 (-110) |
| Baltimore | -9.5 (-110) | -455 | Under 43.5 (-110) |
The Texans vs Ravens odds make the #1 seed Ravens almost double-digit favorites at -9.5. At -455 moneyline odds they have an implied win probability of 81.98%. The total for this game is set at 43.5 points.
The Texans vs Ravens betting line has held steady at 9.5 since opening, but some sportsbooks have shortened this line to 10.
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How to Watch Houston vs Baltimore
Viewers in the United States can watch this AFC game between Houston and Baltimore on Saturday on ESPN, while viewers in Canada can watch on DAZN or TSN.
Houston vs Baltimore Weather Calls for Cold and Wind
The conditions could come into play on Saturday in this AFC game, particularly with projected NW winds of 15 mph and wind gusts of up to 35 mph which could affect the passing games.
With strong and gusty winds in the forecast, sharp bettors have hammered the under in the game, dropping the total from 45.5 to 43.5 at sportsbooks. The “under” has cashed in 66% of Baltimore’s games played in winds of at least 10mph since 2003.
There is a 0% percent chance of precipitation, however, with overall temperatures expected to be around 24 degrees.
Texans vs Ravens Head-to-Head History
These teams met way back in Week 1 this season with Baltimore winning 25-9 at home. The final score will say otherwise, but the Texans kept the game close for the first half, only trailing 7-6 at halftime. Houston actually held a slight advantage in total yards (268-265) and Stroud, in his first pro game out-passed Jackson 243-169.
The Ravens were the better rushing team though (110-72 yards) and had three rushing scores, two by Justice Hill and one by JK Dobbins.
It’s been a short head-to-head history between these teams, but one that has been dominated by the Ravens. Baltimore has won each of the past four games and the past three wins have come by 16, 18 and 34 points. All-time Baltimore is 11-2 SU.
Texans vs Ravens Public Betting Trends
In NFL public betting, the public is relatively split on the spread but is leaning in the way of the Ravens with 51% of the money and 54% of bets coming in on Ravens -9.5. The Texans’ moneyline is getting 59% of the money, however, the bet percentages highly favor Baltimore at 83%.
There is no question where the public is betting when it comes to the total with over 80% of both the money and bets coming in on the Over in Texans vs Ravens public betting splits.
Only 4 QBs in NFL history have won multiple playoff games as a rookie 🏈
Will CJ Stroud join this list? pic.twitter.com/B8Jc8r6znN
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 17, 2024
Stroud Wins First Career Playoff Game
Rookie quarterbacks had been 2-6 SU in their past eight first-time playoff games, but Stroud has been no ordinary rookie and he led the Texans to a huge 45-14 upset win over the Browns in the Wild Card Playoffs.
The overwhelming favorite in the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, Stroud was 16-21 for 274 yards and 3 TDs last week. The Texans’ averaged 8.1 YPP on offense, and defensively, forced two interceptions of Joe Flacco and returned both for touchdowns.
Houston comes into the Divisional Round 4-1 SU and ATS in their past five games, with the only loss being against the Browns in a game that Stroud missed.
Ravens Rested Off Bye
With the #1 seed in the AFC wrapped up, John Harbaugh rested Jackson and other starters in Week 18 against the Steelers, and while Tyler Huntley and other backups made a go of it, Pittsburgh left Baltimore with a 17-10 win.
But prior to that loss, Baltimore had won six straight and ten of their past 11. The Ravens routed the Dolphins 56-19 in Week 17 and won by 37, 14, 16, 6, 10 and 14 points in those six wins.
Those wins came against top opposition as well coming over Miami, San Fran, Jacksonville and the LA Rams in their past four wins. When playing starters, not counting Week 18, the Ravens had scored over 30 points in eight of their past ten games.
"This was a MAJESTIC MVP season…I believe there's no single player under MORE PRESSURE this postseason than Lamar Jackson."
— @AdamSchein on Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens 🐦 pic.twitter.com/NKrms9OWaq
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) January 17, 2024
Jackson finished the year with 27 TDs to just 7 INTs and also led the team in rushing with 821 yards. Jackson is favored in both the NFL MVP odds and the early favorite in the Super Bowl MVP odds.
Texans vs Ravens Head-to-Head Stats
| 10-7 / 9-8 | Record / ATS | 13-4 / 11-6 |
| T-12th (22.2) | PPG Scored | 4th (28.4) |
| 12th | YPG Offense | 6th |
| 7th | Passing YPG | 21st |
| 22nd | Rushing YPG | 1st |
| 11th (20.8) | PPG Allowed | 1st (16.5) |
| 14th | YPG Allowed | 6th |
| 23rd | Passing YPG Allowed | 6th |
| 6th | Rushing YPG Allowed | 14th |
*Regular season stats
Texans vs Ravens Prediction
Last week Houston was at home. This week they’re on the road. At home Houston was 6-3 in the regular season and on the road they were 4-4. But the more interesting or concerning stat if you’re a Houston bettor is Stroud’s play when comparing home and away stats. He had 23 passing touchdowns in the regular season, but only six of those came when playing on the road, compared to 17 at home. Something to consider when betting the Texans vs Ravens props.
Also, Houston may have won by 31 points last week, but they did it with quick-strike plays and turnovers. Two pick-sixes and touchdown scores of 76, 37 and 19 yards. The Texans’ receiving corps has also been dealt another blow. Already down Tank Dell, they placed WR Noah Brown on IR with a shoulder injury this week. While being taken off the Texans vs Ravens injury reports recently, Robert Woods and John Metchie III were also dealing with ailments during the week.
The Ravens are 1st (PPG), 6th (YPG) and 6th (passing YPG) allowed on defense and should do a better job of limiting those big plays.
Houston could not have been any more effective with their scoring. But they also had just 14 first downs all game and ran just 44 plays compared to the Browns’ 70. The Texans also had just 24:34 minutes of possession.
Cleveland is known for turning the ball over, and they were one of the worst turnover-differential teams at -9 this season. Baltimore by contrast is the one of the best turnover-differential teams, tied in 1st overall at +12.
Stroud became the youngest quarterback ever to win a playoff game last week. So there is little playoff history to compare with him this week. Can he reverse another trend in Baltimore? Rookie quarterbacks playing in Baltimore with Harbaugh as coach are just 2-17 SU.
Meanwhile, Jackson has never won a home playoff game in his career and is just 1-3 SU in the playoffs. He’s also been a poor bet as a favorite being 31-33 ATS in his career. But that number gets worse as a big favorite where he is 11-15 ATS when favored by 7.5-points or more, and 1-8 ATS the past three years when favored by 7 or more points.
The #1 seed in the past ten years in the Divisional Round is 16-4 SU but just 10-10 ATS. Let’s follow that trend in our Texans vs Ravens prediction and pick the Ravens to win but Texans to cover.
Texans vs Ravens Picks: Texans (+9.5)
Looking for more Houston vs Baltimore picks? Get our Texans vs Ravens SGP predictions here!
Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
