Upcoming Match-ups

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Prediction, Odds, Best Bets – NFL Preseason Week 1

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in NFL Football

Updated Aug 9, 2023 · 12:01 PM PDT

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws during training camp practice
Jul 30, 2023; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws during training camp practice at the Houston Methodist Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Texans are 3.5-point road favorites over the Patriots on Thursday night
  • This will be the preseason opener for both teams
  • A look at the Texans vs Patriots odds and matchup can be found below with a prediction

The Houston Texans and host New England Patriots open their preseason schedules when they meet at 7 pm ET Thursday at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Read on for our top Texans vs Patriots picks here.

The Texans were 3-13-1 last year and finished last in the AFC South while losing at least 12 games for the third straight season. The Patriots had an 8-9 record in 2022 and wound up in third place in the AFC East.

The game will be televised on the NFL Network.

Texans vs Patriots Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Houston Texans -165 -3.5 (-110) Over 38.5 (-110)
New England Patriots +140 +3.5 (-110) Under 38.5 (-110)

The Texans are 3.5-point favorites and -165 picks on the moneyline over the Patriots in the NFL odds, giving them an implied win probability of 62.26%. Both are longshots in the Super Bowl 58 championship odds with New England listed at +6500 and Houston at +200000.

The weather could be a factor as there is a 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms forecasted. The temperature is expected to be 75 degrees at kickoff with a low of 63 and south wind at 7-13 mph.

Odds as of August 9th at BetMGM. Check out the latest BetMGM promo code before betting on the preseason to get a great NFL bonus.


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Folk Was a Hero

The teams last met in Week 5 of the 2021 season with the Patriots rallying from a 13-point deficit to beat the Texans 25-22 in Houston. Nick Folk’s fourth field goal of the game, a 21-yarder with 15 seconds left, won it for New England.

The Patriots’ Mac Jones completed 23 of 30 passes for 231 yards and one touchdown with one interception.

Stroud Gets Call for Texans

Rookie CJ Stroud has ascended to the top of the Texans’ quarterback depth chart – at least for this game – as he battles with incumbent Davis Mills for the starting job.

The Texans chose Stroud second overall in this year’s draft following his standout career at Ohio State. He was fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting in 2021 and third last season.

Mills and veteran Case Keenum will also see action at quarterback for first-year coach DeMeco Ryans, the former San Francisco 49ers’ defensive coordinator who is replacing Lovie Smith.

Mills started 26 games over the last two seasons, but the Texans went just 5-20-1. His 15 interceptions were the most in the NFL last year.

Keenum is back with the Texans, the team he spent the first two seasons of his 11-year career in 2013-14. Since leaving Houston, Keenum has played for seven other teams. He appeared in just two games last season for the Buffalo Bills and attempted seven passes.

Jones Will Sit for Patriots

Patriots coach Bill Belichick plans to use his three backup quarterbacks and give Jones the night off. Bailey Zappe is expected to start and be followed by Trace McSorley and rookie Malik Cunningham. So all could be worth bets in the NFL props markets.

Zappe made two starts as a rookie last season and the Patriots won them both. He completed 70.7% of his passes for 581 yards and five touchdowns with three interceptions.

McSorley started once for the Arizona Cardinals in 2022 and appeared in six games overall. He did not throw a TD pass and was picked off five times before being released.

Cunningham was signed as an undrafted free agent from Louisville, where he played in 56 games over five seasons. He passed for 9,660 yards and 70 touchdowns in his career and rushed for 3,179 yards and 50 scores.

Belichick Has Long Track Record

Belichick is the second-winningest coach in NFL history behind George Halas. He also has a solid 50-38 career record in preseason games with the Patriots, including a 15-8 mark in exhibition openers.

Conversely, this game will mark Ryans’ first game as a head coach at any level.

Texans vs Patriots Prediction

Belichick usually has his teams ready to play right from the start of the preseason. Cunningham has something to prove to the Patriots and his combination of passing and rushing could prove to be the difference in the latter stages of the game.

Texnas vs Patriots Picks: Patriots +140 ML

Preseason record: 0-1 (-1.1 units) ATS

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