JJ Watt’s 2018 DPOY Odds Fading; Myles Garrett Making a Move
- JJ Watt’s DPOY odds have gone from +400 to +1200 since he last played
- Myles Garrett’s DPOY odds have been slashed in half
- Watt’s price presents tremendous value
What did JJ Watt do to deserve this kind of disrespect?
He’s currently enjoying an incredible comeback season and his Texans are on top of the AFC South after reeling off six straight victories.
Six straight salute.#VictoryMonday pic.twitter.com/sGWvvAvCy1
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 5, 2018
Yet Watt, who was on bye last week, has seen his Defensive Player of the Year odds balloon to +1200.
2018 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds to Win DPOY |
|---|---|
| Aaron Donald | -250 |
| Khalil Mack | +450 |
| Myles Garrett | +1000 |
| JJ Watt | +1200 |
| Danielle Hunter | +2000 |
*Follow the link in the table to see all betting options
Just a week ago, Watt had the second highest odds to win the award, but has since been overtaken by both Khalil Mack and Myles Garrett.
Watt’s DPOY Case is Still Strong
Watt was the preseason Defensive Player of the Year favorite when odds were released in July, and his play has not only lived up to expectation, it has exceeded it.
He ranks first in forced fumbles, third in sacks, fourth in tackles for loss, and seventh in Quarterback hits.
J.J. Watt through nine games:
9⃣ sacks
1⃣1⃣ tackles for loss
1⃣6⃣ quarterback hits
4⃣ forced fumbles? » https://t.co/fJMvOCbpba pic.twitter.com/khpLLR1rTi
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 7, 2018
He has the NFL’s fastest average time to sack per Next Gen Stats, and anchors a defense that has allowed just 15.2 points per game since Week 5.
Garrett’s Price is a Trap
Myles Garrett is a physical freak. Just check out his combine measurables.
Myles Garrett at the combine:
Taller than Julio Jones
Heavier than Rob Gronkowski
Quicker than Devonta Freeman
Faster than Jarvis Landry pic.twitter.com/9Dl6GIJt2F— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) March 5, 2017
He’s enjoying a breakout sophomore campaign, but giving him better DPOY odds than Watt feels like an overreaction.
Garrett has played 126 more defensive snaps than Watt this season, but has been less productive. Yes, they both have nine sacks, but Watt has much better numbers against the run.
Garrett has just seven tackles for loss, compared to Watt’s 11, despite Cleveland facing the 4th-most rushing attempts in the league.
Garrett is also coming off a game where he didn’t register a single Quarterback pressure according to Pro Football Focus, and his Interim Head Coach seems determined to reduce his playing time, which could cap his upside.
Watt is the Best Value on the Board
Three weeks ago, I was adamant we needed to bet Donald at +650.
Well, the market has since been corrected and Donald’s price now is far too steep. Watt, on the other hand, presents tremendous value, but only if we act quickly.
Sack No. 9 for @JJWatt‼️#HOUvsDEN pic.twitter.com/JD7f3Zychd
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 4, 2018
He has a dream matchup Sunday and should terrorize a Redskins offensive line that is missing three starters. If he dominates like he’s shown he’s capable of, that juicy +1200 number will disappear in a heartbeat.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
