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JJ Watt’s 2018 DPOY Odds Fading; Myles Garrett Making a Move

Myles Garrett CLeveland Browns
Myles Garrett has recorded four sacks in his last four games, bringing his season total to nine. Photo by Erik Drost (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • JJ Watt’s DPOY odds have gone from +400 to +1200 since he last played
  • Myles Garrett’s DPOY odds have been slashed in half
  • Watt’s price presents tremendous value

What did JJ Watt do to deserve this kind of disrespect?

He’s currently enjoying an incredible comeback season and his Texans are on top of the AFC South after reeling off six straight victories.


Yet Watt, who was on bye last week, has seen his Defensive Player of the Year odds balloon to +1200.

2018 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Player Odds to Win DPOY
Aaron Donald -250
Khalil Mack +450
Myles Garrett +1000
JJ Watt +1200
Danielle Hunter +2000

*Follow the link in the table to see all betting options

Just a week ago, Watt had the second highest odds to win the award, but has since been overtaken by both Khalil Mack and Myles Garrett.

Watt’s DPOY Case is Still Strong

Watt was the preseason Defensive Player of the Year favorite when odds were released in July, and his play has not only lived up to expectation, it has exceeded it.

He ranks first in forced fumbles, third in sacks, fourth in tackles for loss, and seventh in Quarterback hits.

He has the NFL’s fastest average time to sack per Next Gen Stats, and anchors a defense that has allowed just 15.2 points per game since Week 5.

Garrett’s Price is a Trap

Myles Garrett is a physical freak.  Just check out his combine measurables.

He’s enjoying a breakout sophomore campaign, but giving him better DPOY odds than Watt feels like an overreaction.

Garrett has played 126 more defensive snaps than Watt this season, but has been less productive.  Yes, they both have nine sacks, but Watt has much better numbers against the run.

Garrett has just seven tackles for loss, compared to Watt’s 11, despite Cleveland facing the 4th-most rushing attempts in the league.

Garrett is also coming off a game where he didn’t register a single Quarterback pressure according to Pro Football Focus, and his Interim Head Coach seems determined to reduce his playing time, which could cap his upside.

Watt is the Best Value on the Board

Three weeks ago, I was adamant we needed to bet Donald at +650.

Well, the market has since been corrected and Donald’s price now is far too steep.  Watt, on the other hand, presents tremendous value, but only if we act quickly.


He has a dream matchup Sunday and should terrorize a Redskins offensive line that is missing three starters. If he dominates like he’s shown he’s capable of, that juicy +1200 number will disappear in a heartbeat.

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