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Lamar Jackson vs Kyler Murray: Odds to Have More Completions in Week 2

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 2:43 PM PDT

In a match-up of premier dual threat quarterbacks, can Lamar Jackson out-duel Kyler Murray? Photo by Office of the Maryland Governor (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • Kyler Murray completed more passes than Lamar Jackson in Week 1
  • The young signal callers square off in Week 2 in Baltimore
  • Who will have more completions?

Many feel that Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson are the future of the NFL. Young, athletic signal callers who can beat you in a multitude of ways.

Well we’ll get a glimpse of the future on Sunday, as Murray and Jackson go head-to-head in Baltimore.

Murray is coming off of an overtime performance where he had to sling it against the Lions. While Jackson finished with a perfect passer rating Week 1, the Dolphins’ defense didn’t pose much of a challenge.

Who Has More Completions in Week 2: Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray?

Who Will Have More Completions in Week 2? Odds
Kyler Murray -340
Lamar Jackson +220

*Odds taken 09/13/2019

Jackson and Murray had very different Week 1s.

Jackson went 10/11 in the first half, with three passes traveling over 15 yards. Murray was very pedestrian until the fourth quarter. He had nine combined completions through the first three, but went 20/29 in the fourth quarter and overtime.

Here are their afternoons overall:

Comparing Week 1: Kyler Murray vs Lamar Jackson

Kyler Murray
VS
Lamar Jackson
29/54 Comp/Att 17/20
308 Yards 324
10.6 Yards per Completion 19.1
2 TD 5
1 INT 0
75.2 Rating 158.3

The important thing to remember, is that Lamar Jackson didn’t throw a pass in the fourth quarter. If we remove Murray’s performance from the fourth quarter and overtime, it knocks him down to 9/25.

He also threw for just 70 yards, meaning 77% of his production came in the final two quarters.

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It’s an afternoon that’s hard to get a read on.

But the QBs’ lines can only tell us so much. How did these teams do against opposing passers on Sunday?

Comparing Week 1: Cardinals vs Ravens Pass Defense

Cardinals
VS
Ravens
27/45 Comp/Att 15/32
385 Yards 190
14.3 Yards per Completion 12.7
3 TD 1
0 INT 2
109.95 Passer Rating 50.6

The Ravens had, by far, the easier match-up.

Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 29 passes, completing 14. Josh Rosen came in and completed one of the three he threw.

Both threw interceptions.

Miami also barely ran the ball. Kenyan Drake had four carries because the Dolphins were down by three touchdowns late in the first.

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Matt Stafford started well but couldn’t close. He completed 13 of his 20 passes in the first half, compared to 10/16 in the second (not including overtime). The yardage was the big difference however, as after 200 first half yards, Stafford only added 122 in the third and fourth quarters.

What About Rushing?

This may seem odd at first, but the rushing attacks may have a lot to do with this in Week 2.

Here’s the team production from Week 1:

Comparing Week 1: Cardinals vs Ravens Rushing

Cardinals
VS
Ravens
23 Attempts 46
112 Yards 265
4.87 AVG 5.76
0 TD 2

While both QBs can use their legs, the two combined for just 19 yards rushing. Baltimore got a balanced attack, led by Mark Ingram’s 107 yards. Meanwhile, David Johnson rolled up 82 yards on 18 carries.

The importance of this is magnified when we look at how both teams defended the run. Baltimore surrendered just 21 yards on 12 carries because of their big lead. In a closer game, Arizona allowed 116 yards on 32 carries.

The Ravens’ run defense is sturdier than the Cardinals’, which means we could see Murray air it out more.

Who Finishes Week 2 with More Completions?

We’re going with Lamar Jackson, and it’s not just because he offers more value.

While Baltimore should have more success on the ground, it won’t be 265 yards worth. They’re going to have to throw the ball, and Jackson will likely be playing all four quarters.

The Ravens also have the more diverse attack, and are able to threaten a team at different levels of the passing game. There are questions for both sides, but we’re wary of the Cards starting slow again.

And no matter who is patrolling the defensive side for the Ravens, defense is a different beast in Baltimore. And a rookie QB walking into town and quieting the crowd is a tough sell.

It’ll be a long afternoon for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. They’ll be trailing and need to throw, but completions will be hard to come by.

The Pick: Lamar Jackson (+220)

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