Mahomes is Now Odds-On Favorite to Win 2019 NFL MVP After Week 4

• Mahomes has thrown 10 TD passes in four games
• Odds on Chiefs QB go from +500 to -125 since August 26
• No player has won back-to-back NFL MVP awards since 2008-09

There isn’t a single player in the NFL this season that’s been more important to his team than Patrick Mahomes.

That is why the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback is now the odds-on favorite at -125 to win the 2019 NFL MVP after four weeks of action.

Is there still value in betting on Mahomes at that price or can another player emerge as a top contender moving forward?

Odds to Win 2019 NFL MVP

*Odds taken October 10/01/19

When NFL MVP odds opened earlier this year, Mahomes was listed at +400. By late August, Mahomes’ odds were as long as +500 but that line has steadily shortened heading into Week 5.

Coming off a career season in which Mahomes threw for 50 TD passes, there was a thought that regression could be headed his way.

However, four weeks into the regular season and Mahomes is actually on pace to surpass some of those stats.

Mahomes Off to Hot Start

Mahomes has already thrown for a league-leading 1,510 passing yards with 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions.

He’s completed 106 of 156 pass attempts for a rating of 67.9 heading into a Week 5 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.

Even after losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill to a shoulder injury, Mahomes has still been able to produce league-leading numbers. In Hill’s absence, Mahomes has made other players around him better.

Sammy Watkins is one of those players as the wide receiver ranks seventh overall in receiving yards with 365. That mark is not far behind tight end Travis Kelce, whose 369 yards receiving is fifth in the NFL.

If Mahomes wins the NFL MVP award for a second-straight season, he will join an elite group of players to take the honour in back-to-back seasons. Peyton Manning was the last player to accomplish that feat, winning the MVP award in 2008 and 2009. It’s only been accomplished four times in the NFL’s history.

It’s also important to note that 11 of the last 12 players to win the MVP award have been quarterbacks. Running back Adrian Peterson won it in 2012.

Patrick Mahomes is the first QB in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to lead his team to multiple 4-0 starts before his 25th birthday. #SCFacts pic.twitter.com/7xKnoRLAOJ

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 29, 2019

Best Of The Rest

The rest of the field in the top five contenders includes Tom Brady (+1000), Lamar Jackson (+1000), Aaron Rodgers (+1200) and Dak Prescott (+1200).

Brady was Mahomes’ biggest threat on Sept. 18, listed at +550 before those odds went as long as +700 heading into Week 4. Brady’s odds dropped as the six-time Super Bowl champion and two-time NFL MVP has struggled offensively this season.

With all the money coming in on Mahomes, other players have seen their odds drop significantly on Tuesday.

This is our QB @PatrickMahomes pic.twitter.com/c8wE5TTIZQ

— BBQ Chiefs (@BBQChiefs) October 1, 2019

Jackson, who got out to a blazing start and was in the NFL MVP discussion after two weeks of play, saw his odds fall from +870 on Sept. 25 to +1000.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz was as short as +880 on Aug. 26 but fell out of the top five and is now considered a long shot at +2800.

If you’re going to consider putting your money on any other player not named Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers may be worth a look at +1200. Rodgers was one of the few players in the top five contenders to see their odds shorten, going from +1400 on Sept. 18 to +1200 this week.

The Packers have opened the season at 3-1 and Rodgers will get the chance to show if he’s MVP worthy when Green Bay faces Mahomes and the Chiefs in Week 7.

Until then, it looks like Mahomes all the way as the odds-on favorite at -125.

Pick: Patrick Mahomes (-125)