Majority of Money Bet on Super Bowl Still on Chiefs, But Heavy Sharp Money Is on 49ers Now
- 72% of public money wagered at sportsbooks on Super Bowl 54 is backing the Kansas City Chiefs
- However, 70% of sharp money is wagered on the San Francisco 49ers
- Since opening as a pick, the betting line is now Kansas City -1
The betting line on Super Bowl 54 between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers is tight. It’s shaping up to be among the closest in the history of the game.
Sportsbooks report that they are seeing an equal divide on the game between public and sharp wagering. Of the public money taken in by the sportsbook, 72% is wagered on the Chiefs.
The sharps, or the smart money as bets from professional gamblers are known, is taking a different tack on the game. Among sharps, 70% of wagers are placed on the 49ers.
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | +107 | +1.0 (-105) | Over 54.0 (-110) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -127 | -1.0 (-115) | Under 54.0 (-110) |
Odds taken Feb. 1st.
Sportsbooks currently have the Chiefs as one-point favorites in the game.
Back and Forth Movement
The line on this game opened as a pick at sportsbooks. It didn’t stay there for long.
It went to Chiefs -1, and then to Chiefs -1.5. But then a surge of money on the 49ers brought line back to its current status at KC -1.
And then there were two. ?@SuperBowl | #SuperBowlLIV pic.twitter.com/KlEvkiZ1Sx
— NFL (@NFL) January 20, 2020
If the line stays where it is, this will be just the third of 54 Super Bowls to kick off with a spread of one point. In that scenario, the favorite has never lost.
The 49ers were one-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals in 1982 and won 26-21. In 1973, the Miami Dolphins were the one-point chalk against the Washington Redskins and finished as 14-7 winners.
Public vs Sharps
The sharps-public divide has moved slightly since wagering opened on Super Bowl 54.
Among all public wagers, 57% of the handle on the spread favors the Chiefs. Moneyline wagering leans heavily toward the 49ers. Sportsbooks indicate that 70% of the handle, 61% of all wagers of public money goes with the Niners. The sharps are supporting San Fran 89% in moneyline betting.
The public likes the over on the total to the tune of 75% of handle and 77% of wagers. But the sharp wagers are going 57% in favor of the under.
A week ago, sportsbooks were showing that 67% of their overall handle intake, and 54% of all wagers laid on the Super Bowl, were on the Chiefs. At the same juncture, the smart money was all over the 49ers to the tune of 80%.
Every 49ers and Chiefs player practiced in full today. There will not be a single player with an injury game status for Sunday.
Both teams are healthy and ready to roll for Super Bowl LIV.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 31, 2020
In terms of moneyline wagering, the 49ers were also winning the battle of public opinion. Sportsbooks show 56% of the entire moneyline handle and 66% of all moneyline wagers are being put down on San Francisco to win. The sharps liked the Niners in the moneyline at 75%.
Easy to Make Case for Chiefs or 49ers
Kansas City is an NFL-best 12-5-1 against the spread this season. That’s a .694 winning percentage. The 49ers aren’t far off, though. San Francisco is 11-6-1 ATS. That’s a .639 win rate.
Perfect day to boss up. #SBLIV
?@RickRoss
?@NFLonFOX#BeLegendary pic.twitter.com/V6XV6VT4YG— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) February 1, 2020
The Chiefs are also the NFL’s best bet this season as a favorite. They’re 10-4-1 in that scenario. That’s good for a .700 winning percentage.
On the other hand, the 49ers are the NFL’s #1 underdog bet in 2019-20. In fact, they’re perfect. San Francisco is 5-0 this season when getting points on the line.
Chiefs or 49ers?
One of the more popular theories in betting is that you should fade the public. But in this case, the public has Chiefs quarterback and 2018 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes on their side.
Both Mahomes and San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo are starting their first Super Bowl. In the last six Super Bowls featuring two first-time starters at QB, the AFC is 4-2.
Which KC run defense will show up? The #26 overall regular season bunch, or the #3 postseason group?
Jimmy G and Kittle. #GoNiners
Mahomes and Kelce. #ChiefsKingdomWhich side are you on? #WeReady #SBLIV
?: #SBLIV | Sunday 6:30pm ET on FOX
?: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app pic.twitter.com/ZzhYqDTVaK— NFL (@NFL) February 1, 2020
The 49ers running game crushed Green Bay’s spirit in the NFC Championship Game. By moving the ball on the ground and taking control of the time of possession game, San Fran also keeps the ball away from Mahomes.
But Mahomes has displayed time and again that he doesn’t need much time to make magic happen. He’ll be the difference in a close Chiefs victory.
Go with the public on this wager.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -1 (-119)
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
