Michael Thomas Favored to Record Most Receiving Yards in Conference Championships

• Michael Thomas should remain red-hot as the Saints take on the Rams
• The Chiefs’ top weapons should put up points vs the Patriots
• Who is the best bet here?

If you enjoy offense, then you’ve come to the right Conference Championship weekend.

The Chiefs, Rams, Saints and Patriots should have scoreboard lightbulbs on alert in New Orleans and KC.

For the first time since the merger, the four highest-scoring teams in the NFL will reach Conference Championship weekend.

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 14, 2019

Which makes for a great side action prop: who will pile up the most receiving yards this weekend? There are a bevy of candidates: five players are in the top 14 in the NFL in receiving yards this season.

While there is one clear favorite, let’s see if we can’t find you a sleeper for a big payout.

Odds for Most Receiving Yards in NFL Conference Championships

Elements Prime for Thomas to Break Out

There’s probably no better place to start than with Michael Thomas, the odds-on-favorite, who just happened to lead the NFL in receptions this year with 125.

Michael Thomas in three career playoff games …

38 targets
27 receptions
387 yards
3 TDs

… shhhhh pic.twitter.com/UZsOHnT8V8

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 14, 2019

He’s coming off a scorching weekend against the Eagles, who had no answer for what he brought to the table.

Michael Thomas has 12 catches for 171 yards and a TD.

— Jeff Duncan (@JeffDuncan_) January 14, 2019

Now? He’s up against a Rams team he just happened to light on fire in Week 9 in a 12-catch, 211-yard, one TD performance, punctuated with this dagger to seal the win.

Brees finds Michael Thomas for the dagger! #LARvsNO https://t.co/yhayoE2tEz

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) November 5, 2018

What makes Thomas an extra appealing pick is that he’s clearly the downfield option for the Saints. While Alvin Kamara is a threat any time he touches the ball, Brees knows that he can stretch the field confidently with his top target.

No WR in the NFL has a higher receiving grade (91.3) than the #Saints Michael Thomas in 2018. His 87.5% reception rate on passes of 20+ yards downfield also leads all qualifying NFL WRs.

Let's get @Cantguardmike back to the Pro Bowl! #ProBowlVote
EVERY Retweet counts as a vote! pic.twitter.com/zkF19feQgp

— PFF NO Saints (@PFF_Saints) December 1, 2018

Don’t Sleep on Chiefs’ Top Targets

How can you? Tyreek Hill was a powder keg on every play, waiting to pop the top off the defense.

#Chiefs are off and running: Patrick Mahomes 67-yard TD to Tyreek Hill. ✌️

TD #49 for Mahomes

https://t.co/Umf4TJcAYX

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 30, 2018

He had seven 100+ yard receiving games this year, and six times he averaged better than 20 yards a catch. New England saw him up close and personal, and he literally ran away from their defense.

@PatrickMahomes5 to @cheetah for a 75 Yard TD! #NEvsKC #Patriots #Chiefs #NFL pic.twitter.com/V7hezHSRCb

— Around The NFL (@X_AroundNFL_X) October 15, 2018

His teammate, Travis Kelce, is perhaps the toughest cover in the NFL, part of the reason this duo led the league in receiving yards, combining for nearly 2,800.

https://twitter.com/thechiefsreport/status/1069416715774246912

If Kelce gets working on the intermediate routes in the middle of the field, he’s capable of matching his season highs against the Raiders, where he went for 168 yards on 12 catches.

Look to Patriots for Value Bets

Julian Edelman (+850) looked every part the Tom Brady target machine he was in his prime, finishing with nine grabs for 159 yards against the Chargers last week.

This grab by Julian Edelman 💪 pic.twitter.com/v6CPIuiZso

— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) January 13, 2019

The deep sleeper has to be Rob Gronkowski (+1200). If the Patriots tight end is ever going to have a throwback performance, this is probably going to be his best shot. He’s had his moments against KC in the past.

one of the craziest TD's I've ever seen. @RobGronkowski #PatsNation @BoucherMitch @PatsGazette pic.twitter.com/HQsUNHjNVE

— B (@BeeRadd__) May 17, 2015

The Chiefs are 25th in Football Outsiders’ defense of the tight end position, and teams fed that position with frequency all year, averaging 8.4 pass attempts per game to tight ends against KC, the second highest mark in the league.

If you’re wondering why no Rams, let’s just say Jared Goff hasn’t been his usual self. But the last time Brandin Cooks did crack 100 yards receiving, it was against the Saints.

Who is the Best Bet?

Not jumping out on a limb here, but the safe money is between Thomas and Hill. The eye test probably will push me away from Gronk, but if you’re looking for more value, I do like Edelman being heavily involved in the Pats attack.