NFL Moneyline Picks for Week 4: Expert vs Computer Upset Predictions

• See NFL moneyline picks from Matt McEwan and his formula’s computer picks for Week 4
• NFL favorites are just 29-20 straight up this season; will underdogs continue to win in Week 4?
• Get NFL upset picks for Week 4 below

If you have spent the first three weeks of the 2024-25 NFL season betting underdogs, specifically heavy underdogs, then your bankroll is likely in a very good place. Favorites in the NFL are just 29-20 straight up to this point. My SBD formula and I are looking to pick some of the Week 4 underdogs we think can pull off an upset with our NFL moneyline picks below.

I went 1-1 on my NFL moneyline picks for Week 3, winning 1.25 units thanks to the Panthers upset. My SBD formula went 2-3 and lost -0.6 units, but it’s still +4.10 units for the season. Here’s who we’re betting this week:

Week 4 NFL Moneyline Picks

For the first time this season, I do not have any NFL moneyline picks that my formula does not also like. Even though I come up with my picks before looking at my SBD formula’s, this is bound to happen once in a while. After all, it is my formula!

We agree on two upset picks for Week 4: Vikings over Packers and Bills over Ravens. But my formula is calling for another three upsets, five in total. The justification/analysis for my formula’s picks is within the stats/data that it consumes, and I won’t be sharing here. But I’ll happily provide some commentary on why I like the two NFL moneyline picks we agree on!

All the moneyline odds for the picks above were available at the time of writing this article. Be sure to check our NFL odds to get the best price available at the time you’re reading this.

And if you like these picks, we have worked with bet365 to boost a Saints & Vikings moneyline parlay from +417 to +493. Click the image below to join bet365 and take advantage of SBD’s boost!

Vikings Over Packers

Simply put, I don’t think there’s a team playing better football right now than the Minnesota Vikings. I can appreciate that many people are waiting for Sam Darnold to show what he did in New York or Carolina outside of his first few starts. I was one of those people coming into the season. But maybe it’s not coming. Maybe Kevin O’Connell’s offense is a great fit for Darnold. Maybe Justin Jefferson is the great receiver he never had.

However, even if Darnold does struggle, he has the backing of one of the league’s best defenses. Minnesota leads the league in sacks, are tied for third in takeaways, only allow 3.6 YPC (3rd), and only allow 5.2 net pass yards per attempt (7th). What makes those numbers even more impressive is that two of their three games have been played against very good offenses in the 49ers and Texans. They held those two teams to a combined 24 points.

On the other side, I don’t think a ton of Green Bay’s defense. They have seen lousy quarterback play each of the last two weeks and gave up 34 points to the Eagles in Week 1. I don’t see this being the defense that causes a ton of issues for Darnold.

This pick also isn’t contingent on who starts at QB for the Packers. If Jordan Love makes his return, I’m counting on him being a little rusty and think Green Bay will lose a little bit of their rushing attack without Malik Willis’ legs. If Willis ends up making his third straight start, I like Brian Flores’ defense to disguise well enough and force Willis into some mistakes.

• Pick: Vikings moneyline (+126 at FanDuel)

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Bills Over Ravens

This NFL moneyline pick isn’t so much about me thinking the Bills are that good versus not really believing in the Ravens. My lack of faith in Baltimore cost me a unit last week, but I shouldn’t have trusted Dallas. I do trust Buffalo to put up a good fight on Sunday Night Football.

Josh Allen is the second-best quarterback in the league, in my opinion, and we’re seeing him play such free football with no mouth that needs to be fed. I haven’t seen Allen force many balls this season, which is a big reason he hasn’t thrown an interception yet, and he also hasn’t been asked to throw the ball all the time either. Buffalo has attempted the fifth-fewest passes in the league, but Allen has been very efficient when putting the ball in the air. Allen has completed 75% of his passes and the Bills are second in the league in net yards per pass attempt.

I think Allen will be asked to put the ball in the air a little more this week than he has had to the first three weeks, but see that as a good thing in this matchup. Baltimore allows the fewest yards per carry in the NFL, and I think they’ll be able to bottle up James Cook. I don’t think their defense, which ranks 27th in net yards allowed per pass attempt, will be able to slow Allen as he spreads the ball around to the variety of pass-catching options.

I don’t trust Baltimore’s offensive line to hold it together and allow their offense to sustain lengthy drives in a game where they’ll have to put up a good amount of points.

• Pick: Bills moneyline (+116 at FanDuel)

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