NFL Week 16: Sunday’s 5 Best Bets
Winning a bet is great, but don’t you want to maximize your earnings on that wager? With Week 16 in sight, we’ve gathered our five best value bets, along with the specific online betting site that is offering you the most favourable odds.
1) Patriots Rout the Bills
THE PLAY: PATRIOTS -11.5 (-108)
Since Tom Brady took over under center for the Patriots (2001), the Bills have beaten the Pats four times. That doesn’t sound so bad until you remember that they play twice every season, and that 2001 was 16 years ago. The history is even more bleak when you dive into the specifics of those four victories:
- September 7, 2003: Bills win 31-0 — Brady threw four interceptions
- September 25, 2011: Bills win 34-31 — Brady threw four interceptions
- December 28, 2014: Bills win 17-9 — Brady and other starters sat the second half
- October 2, 2016: Bills win 16-0 — Brady missed the game due to suspension
Since that 2011 game against the Bills, Brady hasn’t thrown more than two interceptions in a game. Don’t count on Tommy tossing Sunday’s game away in similar fashion. The five-time Super Bowl champion has also avoided suspension this season and the Patriots have plenty to play for still, so they won’t be resting starters.
Though Brady has not looked very good over the last three weeks (two TDs to four INTs), all of those games came on the road, and the Pats’ ground game struggled mightily in two of them. In the other, which coincidentally came against these same Bills in Buffalo, the Patriots’ backs ran wild, piling up 191 rushing yards. They will be able to do it again this weekend as Buffalo ranks 28th in DVOA against the run. And when Brady has a ground game going, he’s deadly off of play-action.
Brady will extend his straight-up record against the Bills to 28-3, and this one will be over early.
2) Stafford and the Lions Beat the Bengals
THE PLAY: LIONS -215 (MONEYLINE)
Over the last two seasons, the Detroit Lions have built a reputation as slow starters. Last year, they averaged 3.5 points in the first quarter (23rd). This season, in spite of ranking seventh in points scored, they have gotten worse, dropping to just 2.9 points in the first quarter (28th).
As a result of these slow starts, it’s awfully tough to trust the Lions as five-point favorites. That feeling intensifies when you consider Detroit is on the road this week, where they are just 7-8-1 against the spread since 2016.
Though I don’t love the Lions against the spread, I have a lot of faith in Matthew Stafford picking up the win against a Bengals team that looks like they’ve given up on 2017. Consider this a bet against Cincinnati more than a vote of confidence in Detroit.
3) Titans and Rams Light up the Scoreboard
THE PLAY: OVER 47.5 (-110)
The Los Angeles Rams have scored the most points in the NFL this year, combining for a whopping 109 points in the last three weeks. Jared Goff and the rest of the offense will not have any troubles lighting up the scoreboard again in Week 16. The Tennessee defense ranks 18th in points allowed, and has been saved by weekly meetings with some of the league’s worst offenses (32nd in DVOA defensive strength of schedule).
The aforementioned 109 points the Rams have scored in the previous three weeks came against the Eagles (eighth in points allowed), Seahawks (13th), and Cardinals (24th), with the latter two being on the road. The location of their Week 16 matchup, Tennessee, is also significant for not only the Rams offense, but the Titans, too.
When playing on the road, the Rams average 33.5 points per game, which is nearly five more than they score per game at home. The Titans only rank 19th in points scored this season, but that’s simply because they have been terrible on the road. Tennessee ranks eighth in points per game at home, averaging 26 per contest.
Jared Goff and company are going to have no trouble pouring at least 30 on this Titan defense, which cannot defend the pass (25th), while Marcus Mariota does his part to keep the game competitive. The result is going to be a whole lot of points.
4) Seahawks Upset the Cowboys in Dallas
THE PLAY: SEAHAWKS +190 (MONEYLINE)
I’m not going to sit here and sugarcoat what happened last week: the Seahawks got embarrassed at CenturyLink Field. But this is a very resilient Seahawks team. Since 2012, when Russell Wilson took over under center, Seattle is 23-5 straight up after a loss. After their loss last week, they are an incredibly desperate team battling for their playoff lives.
While Ezekiel Elliott’s return from his four-game suspension is garnering a lot of attention, he will have to deal with a Seattle defense that still ranks 12th in DVOA against the run. Do not expect this defense to allow another 244 yards on the ground in Week 16. This unit is too proud, and Dallas’ offense is not led by an offensive genius known for his creativity and play-calling. The Cowboys’ simple power-running game will be met head on by a much healthier Seattle front-seven.
Meanwhile, Dallas’ defense is not equipped to slow Russell Wilson the way the Rams did last week. DeMarcus Lawrence sits third in the league in sacks with 13.5, but he’s the Cowboys’ sole source of pressure with David Irving and his seven sacks likely sidelined for the rest of the season. Even at full strength, this Cowboys team is middle-of-the-road in sacks, ranking 16th overall. Wilson’s mobility will erase Lawrence as a pass-rusher, and with the extra time, he will carve apart a Cowboys defense that is 20th in DVOA against the pass.
5) Steelers and Texans Struggle to Score
THE PLAY: UNDER 45 (-110)
The Pittsburgh Steelers enter their Week 16 matchup with the Texans sans their best receiver: Antonio Brown. The six-time Pro Bowler, who leads the NFL in receptions (101) and receiving yards (1533), is sidelined until at least the playoffs with a partially torn left calf. Brown’s 163 targets this season are more than the combined total of JuJu Smith-Schuster (62) and Martavis Bryant (73), i.e. the two receivers tasked with filling Brown’s enormous shoes.
The result will be a slower, less-explosive Pittsburgh offense, and the other offense in this game is hardly worth mentioning. TJ Yates has thrown just six touchdown passes in eight career starts, posting a career passer rating of 72.8. Houston’s offense has averaged just 16.8 points per game in those eight starts. This week, he has to deal with a Steelers defense that ranks seventh in points allowed.
If I don’t have you convinced yet, let’s have a look at some significant totals trends:
- The UNDER is 9-5 in PIT games this season
- The UNDER is 6-2 in HOU games not started by Deshaun Watson
- The UNDER is 6-1 in PIT road games this season
And here are some more general stats to support the UNDER:
- In the eight non-Watson starts this season, HOU is averaging 13.8 points per game
- HOU has not scored more than 16 points since Week 11
- PIT averages 20.8 points per game on the road this season
- PIT has not scored more than 28 points in a road game since Week 1 of 2016
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
