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NFL Week 5 ATS Picks: Can the Patriots Cover Another Monster Spread?

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 9:59 AM PDT

Powered by their outstanding defense thus far, Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense look to get back on track against the Redskins. Photo from @Tommy6Rings (Twitter).
  • Patriots’ soft opening slate continues in DC against team with no-named QB yet
  • Khalil Mack faces former squad for the first time in London
  • ATS Week 4 Record: 0-4; Overall 2019 Record: 7-9

Well, that was rough.

Let’s tip our hat to Week 4 of the NFL season, which showed us that the first month has no rhyme or reason.

How else can you explain Pat Mahomes throwing no TD’s in optimal conditions, or the Jameis Winston scorching the Rams on the road, or Bills fans, not doing Bills things?

Let’s take the L and bounce back, beginning with one of the NFL’s sure things this season (gulp).

New England Patriots vs Washington Redskins

Team Spread Odds
New England Patriots -15 (-109)
Washington Redskins +15 (-109)

*Odds from 04/10/19

Analysis: If there was any time for a mercy rule game, this might be it. The Patriots survived a supreme Bills defensive effort last week, doing what they do best: beating you in enough facets of the game that you eventually crumble. So far this year, the defense is the absolute beast of the NFL, ranking first overall – and that doesn’t even do a good enough job explaining how suffocating they are.

They have 18 sacks and 10 interceptions through the first four games. Since 2000, only New England and the 2012 Chicago Bears started the year with 15 or more sacks 10 or more INTs through four games. A Josh Allen goal line run is the only TD they have allowed all season. They haven’t allowed a passing TD through four games.

We don’t know what Redskins’ QB is going to get a chance to break that streak, as beleaguered head coach Jay Gruden hasn’t named a starter yet. Case Keenum was yanked against the Giants for his ineffectiveness, and rookie Dwayne Haskins came in and threw three INTs in an ugly loss.

Tom Brady probably wants to bounce back from and exceptionally ordinary game against Buffalo, going 18-for-39 for 150 yards and an interception. He’s getting a good opponent for that, as the Redskins rank 28th defensively .

The Pick: Patriots -15 (-109)

Chicago Bears vs Oakland Raiders

Team Spread Odds
Chicago Bears -5 (-109)
Oakland Raiders +5 (-109)

Analysis: I really wish Oakland’s home game was really at home, as their fans would get a chance to watch former defensive darling tear apart John Gruden’s Jekyll-and-Hyde squad.

The Bears are again Monsters of the Midway to start the season, having surrendered 45 points all year, trailing only New England who has surrendered 27 (27!) The Bears put their vices into an offense and refuse to let go: they’ve surrendered 17 or fewer points in nine straight games.

It’s been their own offense holding them back, but they may be finding their footing, even after losing Mitch Trubisky, who was coming off his best game of the year against the Raiders in Week 3 when he went down with a shoulder injury on Chicago’s opening drive in Week 4. Enter Chase Daniel, who looked competent and managed the game wisely as the Bears beat up on the Vikings, completing 22-of-30 passes for 195 yards and one major.

As for the Raiders, they looked their best all season, going into Indy and jumping all over the Colts early, leading 14-0 to essentially crush all betting parlays in Week 4. There’s some good vibes going on right now for the Silver and Black: Oakland racked up 188 rushing yards, their highest total since 2016; Darren Waller has 33 catches in his first four games, matching Antonio Gates’ NFL-best mark for a TE from 2007 and Tyrell Williams has a TD in four straight games.

Mack destroys the good vibes.

The Pick: Bears -5 (-109)

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants

Team Spread Odds
Minnesota Vikings -4.5 (-109)
New York Giants +4.5 (-109)

Analysis: If the Vikings are truly a contenders, these are the games they’re going to have to start coming through in, and it starts with their quarterback. Kirk Cousins has been dragging along an offense that is intent on pounding the rock with Dalvin Cook (currently one yard off the NFL rushing lead), merely asking him to make a few plays to complement. His 88.6 passer rating is 23rd in the league, while his 7.4-yard average per throw ranks 16th.

It’s not like he’s lacking weapons, he just needs to utilize them better, like Pro Bowler Adam Thielen, who was ghosted last week to the tune of two catches for six yards. That’s his second-worst career performance, when he was held for zero receptions in December of 2016. He bounced back the following game with a career-high 202 yards on 12 catches for two TDs vs. Packers.

The Vikings defense is also stout, ranking sixth overall in the NFL, with top-10 ranks both against the run and the pass. This will be a good test for them, as they’ll face rookie Daniel Jones, who  has breathed life into a franchise so accustomed to disappointment these last few Eli Manning-led years.

Since his taking over, New York is averaging 28 points a game and has converted on 14-of-26 third-down chances, compared to 31 points combined in the first two games and a paltry 5-for- 23 on third downs.

The G-Men have a chance at their first win streak since 2016! This mostly without star running back Saquon Barkley. But Jones can lean on a sneaky good group of receivers. Sterling Shepard has six-plus catches in each of first three games, Evan Engram ranks second among tight ends with 331 yards receiving and add Golden Tate to the mix, who returns from a four-game PED suspension.

The Pick: Giants +4.5 (-109)

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers

Team Spread Odds
Denver Broncos +6.5 (-114)
Los Angeles Chargers +6.5 (-104)

Analysis: While I tend to shy away from betting interdivisional matchups because of the volatility, this is one I can proudly stand behind. The Broncos are in shambles, starting out 0-4 for the first time since John Elway retired in 1999. Twenty years later, it appears Elway is headed for another retirement, from the head office, and the team is reportedly looking to move standouts like Emmanuel Sanders and Chris Harris Jr. To make matters worse, Bradley Chubb is gone for the year with a torn ACL. That won’t help a defense already ranked 30th in football.

They’re going against a Chargers team that has quietly put together a solid first month, with an ugly loss in Detroit the difference between being 3-1 from their current 2-2. And they’ll be getting back RB Melvin Gordon from a holdout. He should feast against Denver, who made Leonard Fournette look like the second coming of Earl Campbell when he shredded them for 225 yards on the  ground.

Los Angeles makes the most of their possessions, scoring on 45.9% of drives, third best in the NFL. They’re led by veteran QB Philip Rivers who has 44 career TD passes against Denver, his second-most against any opponent. And Keenan Allen has been unstoppable, leading the league with 452 yards receiving and tied for lead in receptions.

The Pick: Chargers -6.5 (-114)

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