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Nick Bosa Becomes Odds-On Favorite to Win NFL DROY After Dominant Week 8 Performance

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 10:23 AM PDT

Nick Bosa answering questions at a press conference.
Nick Bosa has been one of the best players in the league in his rookie season and is now favored to win Rookie of the Year. Photo by Fox Sports (Wikimedia).
  • Nick Bosa leads the NFL – not just rookies – in Pass Rush Productivity
  • Devin Bush is having a good season but he’s cooled off after a great start
  • Brian Burns is nursing a wrist injury, which kept him out last week against San Francisco

Nick Bosa has gone from being a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate to being in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year. Does that mean he’s a shoo-in for the rookie award or is this merely a lot of hyperbole by NFL analysts?

Let’s take a closer look at his NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds and his prospects of winning.

2019 NFL DROY Odds

Player Team Pos Drafted Odds
Nick Bosa SF EDGE 2nd Overall -150
Devin Bush PIT ILB 10th Overall +225
Brian Burns CAR EDGE 16th Overall +800
Josh Allen JAX EDGE 7th Overall +1400
Darnell Savage Jr GB S 21st Overall +1800
Devin White TB LB 5th Overall +2500
Ed Oliver BUF DL 9th Overall +2500
Dexter Lawrence NYG DL 17th Overall +2500
Quinnen Williams NYJ DL 3rd Overall +4000
Clelin Ferrell OAK DL 4th Overall +4000

Odds taken October 30.

Bosa’s Odds Continue To Shorten

Bosa has mostly been hanging out with the favorites this season but his odds have shortened almost by the week since early September. He was as long as +790 entering the season and he was at +130 entering last week, but now there’s a little minus sign in front of his odds.

Bosa is on an absolute tear over the last month, with six sacks in his last four games. He also has an interception, a safety, and a forced fumble. Those who delve into the analytics will see that Bosa has been among the best defenders in the league – not just rookies.

For example, his Pass Rush Productivity (13.2) is the best in the NFL – ahead of Danielle Hunter (11.0) of the Minnesota Vikings and Myles Garrett (10.9) of the Cleveland Browns. He leads the league in Pressure Rate as well and is miles ahead of the rookies in many of those statistical categories.

Who Else Is In The Running?

Part of the reason Bosa is so heavily favored is that it hasn’t been a particularly great year for defensive rookies. Bosa’s main competitors are Devin Bush and Brian Burns; no other player is even inside of 13/1 to win this award.

Bush has been a field general for the Steelers, totaling 59 tackles, two interceptions, two safeties and a sack. That’s decent but his tackles have tapered off in the last few weeks. He had 37 in his first four games (9.3 per game) but has just 23 over his last three. He’s been really solid but he’s not close to Bosa’s level.

As for Burns, he’s also played well but is not in the same stratosphere as Bosa. Burns has 4.5 sacks in his last five games along with a forced fumble. However, he also had surgery on his wrist during the bye week and missed the game against San Francisco. He should be back soon but that is a concern.

What’s The Best Bet?

Even if Bosa’s season ended today, he’d still be in the final running for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award. That’s how good he’s been. He’s probably among the frontrunners to win the Defensive MVP – let alone the Rookie of the Year.

Hop on board at -150 as his odds will only grow shorter as the season progresses.

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