Odds Favor Foles Starting for Jaguars in 2020, Rivers Starting for Chargers

• The Jaguars signed Nick Foles to a four-year, $88 million contract in the offseason, but have now benched him
• Odds favor the former Super Bowl MVP starting for Jacksonville in 2020, nonetheless
• Out in LA, the Chargers are likely to keep Philip Rivers, even though he’s been turning over the ball plenty this season

As the NFL season makes a turn for Week 14, some teams are already out of the running and have an eye on next season. That includes the Jacksonville Jaguars, who benched quarterback Nick Foles last week for Gardner Minshew II, and the Los Angeles Chargers, who have to figure out what to do with aging Philip Rivers.

Oddsmakers have posted a couple of props on where the two veteran quarterbacks will be in Week 1 of the 2020 season. Let’s take a closer look to see if there’s value on the board.

Odds on Nick Foles’ Role in Week 1, 2020

Odds taken Dec. 5.

The Jags signed Foles to an $88 million contract in the offseason because they felt they were getting a physically-gifted quarterback who had the experience of leading a team to the Super Bowl. Instead, they’ve gotten a mixed bag and they’re not sure whether he’s even worth keeping.

Foles was hurt in the first game of the season and was then forced to miss half of the season. In the meantime, rookie Minshew came in and took the NFL by storm, tossing 13 touchdowns and four interceptions in his absence. He gave the team a shot in the arm.

When Foles returned, he got his job back for two reasons: (1) his massive contract, and (2) Minshew regressed.

But he’s been nothing more than passable as a passer. The question the Jaguars have to ask themselves is whether it’s Foles’ fault? The key to the team’s success – both this year and in previous seasons – has been the rushing of Leonard Fournette.

Fournette has 498 rushing yards in the team’s four wins and has just 491 rushing yards in the team’s eight losses. When he’s able to get going, there is balance in the offense and it’s not all put on the quarterbacks. When Minshew was doing well, Fournette was running well. The Jags might feel that he’s the key.

If that’s the case, when they (likely) clean house in the offseason and fire head coach Doug Marrone, their focus might be on finding a new boss who can build a serviceable offense around their high-priced QB and bell-cow running back.

With a stronger offensive line and a better scheme, they might be able to run it more consistently, which would take the pressure off of Foles. Cutting him would carry a massive $33.8 million dead-cap hit.

At the same time, Foles has been average, at best, outside of his Super Bowl season with the Eagles. If the Jags decide to clean house, the new coach might not want to be saddled with a thoroughly mediocre QB. Don’t count out a salary dump trade like the Houston Texans did with Brock Osweiler as that’s one way the Jags can get Foles off the books.

However, some other teams might still see value with Foles at around $20 million – especially when you consider a guy like Jared Goff is making $26 million this year and Jameis Winston is making $20.9 million.

The Jags will have to ask themselves how much worse will they be with Minshew in terms of wins and losses? The answer is probably not much. I like the value at both +300 and +1000 that he’s either a starter or a backup elsewhere.

Odds on Philip Rivers’ Role in Week 1, 2020

Odds taken Dec. 5

Rivers is not having a good season, by most metrics. While he’s third in the NFL in passing yards with 3,434, he has just 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. The bigger concern with Rivers is the trendline as he started well but has declined rapidly. He had seven touchdowns and two picks in his first four games. He has 10 touchdowns and 13 picks since.

Of greater concern is the caliber of some of the interceptions. He’s always been an elite-level quarterback but his gunslinger mentality can lead him to be reckless. This year, though, some of the picks are eye-popping like throwing the ball directly to opponents with the game on the line.

I’m hesitant to write Rivers off because he isn’t getting much help. If we’re looking at trendlines, we have to consider the play of the offensive line throughout the season. Rivers has been sacked 26 times but 11 have come in the last four games, which correlates with some of his ugly passing stats.

Philip Rivers vs Nick Foles 2019 Statistical Comparison

It’s also worth noting that Rivers is getting absolutely no help from the ground game. The Chargers have lost six of eight and the team has produced 40 rushing yards or fewer in four of those games. They’re averaging just 81.9 rushing yards per game in that span and their 89.1 number on the season ranks sixth-worst.

Moreover, if you look at Rivers’ passer rating of 86.9, it’s the worst he’s had since 2007, but he also had an 87.9 in 2016 and bounced back. He’s still completing a healthy 64.7% of his passes and, while he needs to cut down on his mistakes, it’s understandable as he’s mostly doing this alone.

Look for the Chargers to keep him but have a backup plan in place. As long as he looks good in the offseason and they get him help, he should be the Week 1 starter. In the NFL these days, teams can do a lot worse than Rivers and there should still be plenty of upside as long as he tones down the turnovers.