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Odds to Be First NFL Coach Fired After Week 1 – Gase Listed as Slight Favorite Over Patricia

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Sep 15, 2020 · 1:14 PM PDT

Adam Gase at the podium in a post-game press conference
Adam Gase of the New York Jets is the +325 favorite to be the first NFL head coach fired this season, just ahead of Matt Patricia (+350) of the Detroit Lions. Photo by @TheOnion (Twitter).
  • Adam Gase of the New York Jets is the +325 favorite to be the first head coach fired this season
  • Matt Patricia of the Detroit Lions is a close second at +350
  • Atlanta’s Dan Quinn (+600) and Jacksonville’s Doug Marrone (+750) are other strong contenders

The oddsmakers gazed into their crystal ball and saw Adam Gase staring back at them.

Gase, the embattled head coach of the New York Jets, jumped to the forefront in the odds to be the first NFL head coach fired this season.

After sitting third in the opening line, Gase catapulted over Doug Marrone of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Matt Patricia of the Detroit Lions to become the chalk in terms of first to end up feeling the sting of the axe.

Odds on First NFL Coach to Permanently Leave Position

Coach (Team) Odds
Adam Gase (Jets) +325
Matt Patricia (Lions) +350
Dan Quinn (Falcons) +600
Doug Marrone (Jaguars) +750
Bill O’Brien (Texans) +1100
Anthony Lynn (Chargers) +2500
Matt Nagy (Bears) +2500
Zak Taylor (Bengals) +3000
Bruce Arians (Buccaneers) +3300
Vic Fangio (Broncos) +3300
Brian Flores (Dolphins) +3300
Mike Zimmer (Vikings) +3300
Joe Judge (Giants) +4000
Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals) +4000
Bull Belichick (Patriots) +5000
Pete Carroll (Seahawks) +5000
Jon Gruden (Raiders) +5000
John Harbaugh (Ravens) +5000
Matt LaFleur (Packers) +5000
Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) +5000
Sean Payton (Saints) +5000
Doug Peterson (Eagles) +5000
Frank Reich (Colts) +5000
Andy Reid (Chiefs) +5000
Ron Rivera (Washington) +5000
Kevin Stefanski (Browns) +5000
Mike Tomlin (Steelers) +5000
Sean McDermott (Bills) +6600
Sean McVay (Rams) +6600
Matt Rhule (Panthers) +5000
Mike Vrabel (Titans) +6600
Kyle Shanahan (49ers) +10000

Odds as of Sept. 15th.

Curiously, three of the top seven coaches in this betting market actually guided their teams to Week 1 victories – Marrone, Matt Nagy of the Chicago Bears, and Anthony Lynn of the Los Angeles Chargers.

Gase Getting Grief

You won’t get Jets and Miami Dolphins fans to agree on much. Bring up the subject of Gase’s tenure as head coach of their favorite football team, though, and they’ll join forces in launching the vitriol.

After Sunday’s 27-17 season-opening loss to the Buffalo Bills, Gase acknowledged that he’d put an injured Le’Veon Bell back in the game. That decision ended up with Bell aggravating his hamstring injury to the point where the Jets’ feature running back isn’t expected to play for the next few weeks.

In Miami, Gase went 10-6 in his first season in charge and made the playoffs as an AFC Wild Card team. Then it steadily got worse. The Dolphins were 13-19 over the next two seasons and he was fired.

Substandard Patricia

In 2017, the Lions went 9-7 under head coach Jim Caldwell. That wasn’t good enough for management and Caldwell was sent packing.

In two seasons plus a game with Patricia in charge, Detroit is 9-23-1.

Sunday, the Lions squandered a 20-3 lead and lost at home to the Bears.

In last year’s season opener at Arizona, Detroit let a 24-6 lead slip away and settled for a 27-27 tie.

Racing for a Pink Slip

As bad a franchise as they are, the Lions traditionally don’t fire coaches in the midst of a season. They haven’t in 14 years and only did so once over the last 19 seasons.

The Jets are even less likely to do so. The last time they switched coaches midseason was when Mike Holovak replaced Lou Holtz for the final game of the 1976 season.

Adam Gase
Matt Patricia

2 Regular Season Record 4
0-1 Playoff Record 0-0
3 Longest Winning Streak 2
4 Longest Losing Streak 10
32 Offense Rank (2019) 18
16 Defense Rank (2019) 26

Before he was dealt by the Jets to the Seattle Seahawks, All-Pro safety Jamal Adams offered up the opinion that he didn’t think Gase was the right guy for the job. Viewed as an offensive guru, Gase’s Jets gained an NFL-low 273 yards per game last season.

Gase was Denver’s offensive coordinator in 2013-14. However, when Peyton Manning isn’t his quarterback, Gase’s NFL offenses as both a head coach and an offensive coordinator have finished 23rd, 17th, 28th, 26th, and 31st  in the NFL.

Patricia is viewed as a defensive genius, yet the Lions were the NFL’s #26 defense last season. Detroit has blown seven fourth-quarter leads since the beginning of the 2019 season.

Last season, the Jets started 0-4 and 1-7 under Gase. It’s doubtful that he gets a second chance to stumble so badly out of the gate.

Pick: Adam Gase (+325)

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