Odds for Most NFL Regular Season Rookie Passing Yards: Bryce Young Odds-On Favorite

• Bryce Young is a -120 favorite to lead all NFL rookie QBs in passing yards during the regular season
• CJ Stroud threw for more yards than Young at the collegiate level in 2022, and is very live to do so again in their rookie seasons
• Get the complete list of odds here, plus our pick to be the NFL’s rookie passing yards leader in 2023-24

July is right around the corner, and along with it will come the beginning of NFL training camp. Online sportsbooks are doing their part to help drum up excitement for the new season, releasing more and more futures markets for us to wager on each day. The latest involves the top-two picks in the NFL Draft, Bryce Young and CJ Stroud, and focuses on which QB will have the most regular season rookie passing yards in the 2023-24 campaign.

Most Regular Season Rookie Passing Yards Odds

Young, the top selection two months ago by the Panthers, is a -120 favorite to finish on top of this category, followed by the Texans CJ Stroud. Although there are 25+ rookie quarterbacks listed in this market, only Young, Stroud and the Colts Anthony Richardson have a realistic path to starting the season at their team’s number one. Furthermore, only a handful of first year QBs are likely to see any snaps at all this season, barring major injuries to the guys in front of them on the depth chart.

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook June 23. Check out all of the top US betting sites to get the best bonuses to bet on the NFL during the offseason.

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The Case For and Against Bryce Young

Young has been as good as advertised, if not better, since the moment he slipped on the Carolina jersey. The top-two offensive rookie of the year odds contender has taken complete control of the Panthers offense during offseason workouts, impressing both his teammates and his coaches with his talent and leadership.

He was the best QB prospect in the Draft, but what gave some experts pause was his size. Young stands at 5’10, and is below 200 pounds. Not many quarterbacks have had success at that size, but Young does have a lot working in his favor.

Bryce Young threading the needle 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/B9G7X3VhzS

— Michael Rimmer (@avl_mike) June 15, 2023

For starters, Frank Reich has the reputation as a QB friendly coach, and helped turn Carson Wentz into an MVP candidate in Philadelphia. Young will also play behind the best offensive line of any of the top-three rookie QBs, and has arguably the best weapons. He was a star in the collegiate ranks, setting the single season Alabama passing yards and touchdown records.

Carolina also projects to be better than Houston and Indianapolis, boasting a higher projection in the NFL win total odds. That’s what can actually come back to hurt Young. The Panthers likely won’t be playing from behind as often, allowing them to deploy a more evenly split pass/run scheme.

They signed Miles Sanders and feature an o-line that finished ninth in adjusted line yards last season. Carolina also plays in a very weak NFC South division, and have the luxury of facing the AFC South, the worst division in football. That adds up to plenty of positive game scripts, which should allow the Panthers to run the ball more, and take the pressure off their franchise QB.

Fade Anthony Richardson

As for Richardson, he has the highest ceiling of any of the top-three rookie QBs, but also the lowest floor. He’s wildly inexperienced, having only 13 collegiate starts, and struggles with accuracy. Those issues have reportedly been on display during offseason workouts, and he currently sits behind Gardner Minshew on the depth chart.

 Anthony Richards Collegiate Stats

That doesn’t mean he’ll stay the number two for long, but even when he does get in the game his rushing prowess is what makes his ceiling so high. We should expect him to use his legs significantly more than any of the other rookie quarterbacks, and lean on All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor to help move the chains.

CJ Stroud Stands Out as a Value

Which brings us to Stroud in the most rookie passing yards odds. He had the most passing yards and touchdowns of any of the top-three rookie pivots in their final collegiate season, and has impressed in offseason workouts. The Texans have been reportedly blown away by his precision and poise. With Houston expected to be one of the worst teams again in 2023-24, they’ll likely be throwing the ball early and often in catch-up mode.

That bodes well for Stroud, who won’t dice up defenses with an abundance of 20+ yard throws, but will instead pick them apart in the short to medium areas of the field. Stroud completed 70% of his passes in college, and has a very serviceable cast of pass catchers to work with.

CJ Stroud has reportedly gained respect “immediately” from his Texans teammates.

Former Texan Keyshawn Johnson even said the Texans “already know” Stroud is going to be the starting QB in week one.

Texans WR Noah Brown even said he believes Stroud can be “as good as or better”… pic.twitter.com/hN3AfbtK7U

— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) June 21, 2023

Newcomers Robert Woods and Dalton Schultz are consistent winners in those short to medium areas, and will give Stroud a pair safety blankets to target. Houston also has big play threats Nico Collins and John Metchie III for when Stroud does air it out, giving the 21-year-old more than enough ammunition to finish on top of this market.

Also working in Stroud’s favor to be a good bet for most rookie passing yards, is a last place schedule of opposing teams. That includes six games against the softest division in football, plus matchups with a weak NFC South, as well as a date with the lowly Cardinals.

Pick: CJ Stroud (+105)