Odds on Number of Trades in 1st-Round of 2020 NFL Draft, Which Teams Will Trade Their Pick

• The 2020 NFL Draft’s first round will take place on Thursday, April 23rd
• There were six draft-day trades involving first-round picks in 2019 and seven in 2018
• Teams like the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks are rumored to be open to trading their picks

The 2020 NFL Draft will get underway on Thursday, April 23rd at 8:00 pm EST. With this being the only major sports betting event for the foreseeable future, sportsbooks are going all out by offering a huge selection of props and betting lines.

In this article, we’re going to focus on the props that deal with draft-day trades, specifically in the first round (involving first-round picks). Here’s a look at some of the options on the board and a closer look at where there is some value.

2020 NFL Draft-Day Trade Odds

All odds taken Apr. 21

Total Trades Made In First Round

The total for draft-day trades offers us some ranges, so let’s compare to last year. In the 2019 NFL Draft, we saw a total of six trades involving first-rounders as the Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons all jumped up.

Trade! The #Jets acquired the No. 3 overall pick from the #Colts for their No. 6 pick, 37th and 49th overall picks in the 2018 NFL Draft and second-round pick in 2019. Major move.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 17, 2018

To compare it to 2018, there were seven trades that year involving first rounders. In my view, I see this as a very deep draft, so I’m inclined to go under one of the numbers. I think more teams will be satisfied to stay where they are and still be confident that they’ll land something nice.

I wouldn’t go under 6.5 as the juice is fairly high there but I would go under 5.5.

2020 NFL Draft Exact Number of Trades Odds

Of the props on the board, this is the toughest to handicap and the one I want a piece of the least. We’re not getting a range here if we’re picking just one; we’re essentially throwing a dart at a number and hoping that we’re right.

#NFLDraft
With the draft just a few days away, I built a draft trade value chart with values being the average Performance Value (based on @pfref CarAV) of the the NFL careers of players drafted from 2010 to 2019. Puts into perspective how valuable draft picks are. Here it is: pic.twitter.com/IhNL0Qrg6e

— Thomas Hall (@ThomasHallNFL) April 20, 2020

Taking a look at the odds, we can see that there are a number of options where the oddsmakers think it will land. Five and six are basically the favorites, while four and three are next in line. If I had to bet this, I’d take two numbers like five and six, as that pays well and is another way of playing as it gives you a small range.

Even so, we’re mostly guessing and that makes it really tough here – even if the payout is quite tantalizing with some of these.

Odds on Teams to Trade First-Round Picks

The last prop on the board that we’re focusing on here deals with which teams are likely to move their first-round picks. To me, this is the one prop of the three that we’re examining in this article that makes sense to bet. If you do your homework here, you might be able to find a small edge – even though it’s still quite unpredictable.

The Detroit Lions are at +280 to trade their first-round pick but to me, there is value here. The Lions are reportedly eyeing cornerback Jeffrey Okudah. If the Lions trade back two or three spots, teams like the New York Giants, Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers aren’t expected to take him. The No. 3 slot is attractive to those looking to get a quarterback.

3 days till we trade up and draft Jeff Okudah. #Riseup pic.twitter.com/kiQEBosWbg

— ATL Falcons (7-9)?⚫️?⚫️ (@DirtyBirdz_11) April 20, 2020

Another team that has good value is the Atlanta Falcons. For whatever reason, we’ve heard lots of rumors in recent days that the Falcons are going to be aggressive in trying to move up. They’re probably looking at a defensive player who can make an impact – maybe Okudah or linemen Derrick Brown or Javon Kinlaw.

One other team I wouldn’t be surprised to make a move would be the Seattle Seahawks. Seahawks General Manager John Schneider has not been a guy that typically stands pat in the time he’s been managing the team’s drafts. He’s made 25 draft-day trades and while not all of them were first-rounders (obviously), that gives you an idea of how active he is).

Taking one final look at what some experts think we'll do with our first-round pick heading into #SeahawksDraft. ?

Mock Draft Tracker 6.0 » https://t.co/j12IR83fe2 pic.twitter.com/hLn7TfWS1w

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) April 21, 2020

As a franchise, the Seahawks have moved back in the first round six times and traded away the pick two other times. Their roster does need help but there aren’t any urgent fires to put out. They might be best served to trade back, get some more picks and address their concerns early in the second round. I like the value here.