- Bill O’Brien was fired Monday by the 0-4 Houston Texans, the first NFL head coach to be dismissed this season
- A prop wager is offering +185 odds that Adam Gase of the 0-4 New York Jets will be the next NFL head coach to lose his job
- See odds and analysis on who will be the next head coach fired in the 2020-21 NFL season
Those who backed Bill O’Brien to be the first NFL head coach to head for the unemployment line this season collected a tidy sum for that foresight. O’Brien was the fourth betting choice in the previous update of this ongoing prop wager at +900.
Now the question turns, as it always does in the coaching profession, to who’s next?
The three guys given shorter odds last week than O’Brien can probably still sense the figurative guillotine dangling over their necks.
Adam Gase of the 0-4 New York Jets has overtaken Dan Quinn to reign as the +185 chalk in this betting market. Quinn, whose Falcons are also 0-4, shouldn’t feel good about that. He’s the second betting choice at +220.
Matt Patricia of the Detroit Lions is hot on their heels to be the next coach sent home and cooled out at +350.
Odds on Next NFL Coach to be Fired
|Adam Gase (Jets)||+185|
|Dan Quinn (Falcons)||+220|
|Matt Patricia (Lions)||+350|
|Doug Marrone (Jaguars)||+1500|
|Anthony Lynn (Chargers)||+1500|
|Vic Fangio (Broncos)||+1800|
|Mike Zimmer (Vikings)||+2500|
|Matt Nagy (Bears)||+3000|
|Kevin Stefanski (Browns)||+6000|
|Mike Tomlin (Steelers)||+6000|
|Zac Taylor (Bengals)||+6000|
|Bruce Arians (Buccaneers)||+7000|
|Brian Flores (Dolphins)||+8000|
|Doug Pederson (Eagles)||+8000|
|Joe Judge (Giants)||+8000|
|Ron Rivera (Washington)||+8000|
|Andy Reid (Chiefs)||+8500|
|Bill Belichick (Patriots)||+8500|
|Frank Reich (Colts)||+8500|
|John Harbaugh (Ravens)||+8500|
|Jon Gruden (Raiders)||+8500|
|Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals)||+8500|
|Matt LaFleur (Packers)||+8500|
|Mike McCarthy (Cowboys)||+8500|
|Pete Carroll (Seahawks)||+8500|
|Sean Payton (Saints)||+8500|
|Matt Rhule (Panthers)||+10000|
|Mike Vrabel (Titans)||+10000|
|Sean McDermott (Bills)||+10000|
|Sean McVay (Rams)||+10000|
|Kyle Shanahan (49ers)||+15000|
Odds as of Oct. 6th
Five NFL head coaches were fired during the 2019 season.
O’Brien Ruled Out
Coming off consecutive AFC South titles, O’Brien didn’t seem to be in imminent danger. That being said, as coaches are prone to point out, they work in a results-driven business, and as a result of driving the Texans to the bottom of the division, O’Brien was issued his walking papers.
— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) October 6, 2020
As Houston’s coach-GM, a dismal 0-4 start, coupled with a bizarre decision to trade All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for running back David Johnson, sealed O’Brien’s fate.
Perhaps Texans CEO Cal McNair thought it best to remove O’Brien before he decided to deal quarterback Deshaun Watson to the Jets for Frank Gore.
Crystal Ball Gase
You wonder what Jets management needs to see – or is that not see – in order to move on from Gase? He’s supposedly a QB guru and yet 2018 first-round pick Sam Darnold has regressed under Gase’s tutelage.
– 7-13 as #Jets HC. 20-32 in his past 52 games.
– Started 0-4 in both seasons as #Jets HC
– #Jets have 4 offensive touchdowns in their first 4 games this year. 2 on broken plays. 2 deep in garbage time.
— Joe Caporoso (@JCaporoso) October 2, 2020
With a long week before Sunday’s game against the Arizona Cardinals, if the Jets were ready to move on from Gase, this was a prime opportunity to do so.
ESPN NFL insider John Clayton suggested this week that he’d be surprised if Gase survives the season.
Dan’s Not The Man
There’s an old axiom about firing someone else before they figure out it’s your fault. That’s why Quinn goes through coordinators like Donald Trump goes through cabinet secretaries.
We all know how this will end. The Falcons will fire Dan Quinn today (hopefully), they will lose six straight games to start 0-10, win six straight to blow a shot at the No. 1 pick and then draft a kicker at No. 15.
— Barrett Sallee (@BarrettSallee) October 6, 2020
This time though, he needs to pay the piper. The Falcons never recovered from blowing a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl 51. That’s on the coach.
The Lions Sleep
Matt Patricia still being on the job is reminiscent of the infamous remark once uttered by former Lions coach Darryl Rogers. “What does a coach have to do around here to get fired?” Rogers asked rhetorically.
There was a lot of work to??? The Lions won 9 games in Jim Caldwell's last year. Matt Patricia won 9 games total in his first two years. If anything he UNDID the work Caldwell put in. https://t.co/BWY0O4fEWP
— J.A. Adande (@jadande) October 5, 2020
The Lions are 10-25-1 under Patricia. In his last six losses, the team has blown double-digit point leads. No other NFL coach ever did that.
That all three of these men are still gainfully employed is beyond the pale. When you get down to the nitty-gritty, it’s still hard to case your gaze past Gase.
Raise your hand if you had Bill O’Brien fired before Adam Gase or Dan Quinn. Put your hand down, liar.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) October 5, 2020
New York is a major market. The Lions and Falcons have shown patience in the past with woeful coaches.
The Big Apple doesn’t do patient. Careers end there in a New York minute.
Pick: Adam Gase (+185)
Let's have fun and keep it civil.