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Odds of Tua Tagovailoa Starting Week 1 for Dolphins Listed at +325 – Is it Worth Betting?

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in NFL Football

Updated Mar 18, 2021 · 1:32 PM PDT

Tua Tagovailoa about to pass
Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa is listed as the -210 odds-on favorite to be the second quarterback off the board in the 2020 NFL Draft. Photo by: Everipedia.org (Wikimedia Commons).
  • Tua Tagovailoa has made a speedy recovery from injury but has seen his odds of starting Week 1 fade
  • Suspension of NFL offseason activities and a wealth of options under center in Miami contribute to the slide
  • Get all the odds and insight into when Tagovailoa will make his NFL debut in the story below

Recent reports have suggested that Tua Tagovailoa should be ready to return to the gridiron in time for the start of the 2020 NFL season.

Despite making a speedy recovery from the gruesome injury that ended his 2019 season and threatened his football future, Tagovailoa remains a lengthy +325 bet to get the call as the Miami Dolphins’ starting quarterback in the team’s Week 1 matchup with the New England Patriots.

Will Tua Tagovailoa Start Game 1 of the 2020 NFL Season?

‘Yes” Odds ‘No’ Odds
+325 -500

*Odds taken 05/30/20

Tagovailoa Making Speedy Recovery

Selected fifth overall by the Dolphins in the 2020 NFL Draft, Tagovailoa has endured a lengthy recovery since suffering a dislocated hip, posterior wall fracture, broken nose, and a concussion in the final game of his collegiate career with Alabama last November.

Tagovailoa’s best-case scenario recovery was key to Miami’s decision to pick him. The 22-year-old’s surgeon publicly stated in late March that he was “extremely pleased” with his progress, and Tagovailoa’s representatives have stated that he “is fully cleared and ready to compete without any restrictions”.

Suspension of NFL Offseason Programs Works Against Tua

While Tagovailoa looks to be set to make his NFL debut in September, whether he gets the call to start in Week 1 remains far from certain.

The impact that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic will have on NFL training camps remains to be seen. The NFL suspended its offseason programs in mid-March in the wake of the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus, and in the absence of an agreement with the NFLPA on how to move forward, no firm re-opening plans that involve players returning to training camps have been announced.

Under those uncertain circumstances, the Dolphins could elect to go slow with their prized top pick, allowing him extra time to both heal and acclimate himself to life in the NFL. And in Miami, there is no rush. Winners of just five games in 2019, the Dolphins have endured three straight losing seasons, and remain a work in progress with short -750 odds of once again missing the postseason.

Flores Enjoys Plenty of Options Under Center

Miami head coach Brian Flores also enjoys plenty of options at quarterback. Veteran pivot Ryan Fitzpatrick is set to return after taking over the starter’s reins from youngster Josh Rosen and starting 13 of 16 games last season.

Fitzpatrick led the Dolphins to their first victory at Gillette Stadium, where they will open their 2020 campaign. In addition, Fitzpatrick was a steady favorite to get the Week 1 start earlier in the offseason. The 38-year-old sported short -134 odds in early April, well ahead of Tagovailoa, who enjoyed much stronger +160 odds at that time.

With Tagovailoa’s arrival, Rosen’s future in Miami remains uncertain. Selected 10th overall by the Arizona Cardinals in the 2018 NFL Draft, Rosen saw his stock tumble while losing the starter’s job last season. Acquired from Arizona prior to last season in exchange for third- and fifth-round draft picks, the 23-year-old is highly unlikely to get another shot at the Dolphins’ starting job, and the failure of the Rosen experiment could also contribute to the team’s decision to go slow with Tagovailoa.

As a result, barring any changes in the Dolphins’ offseason plans, there remains little value in a wager on Tagovailoa making his NFL debut in Week 1.

Pick: No (-500)

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