- Quarterbacks Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis are the +500 co-betting favorites to win the 2022 NFL OROY
- Three of the last six winners of the award were QBs
- Running back Breece Hall is the third betting choice at +800
Despite what NFL scouts are suggesting, oddsmakers are retaining confidence that Kenny Pickett will have a hand in the NFL OROY race in 2022. That’s if Malik Willis doesn’t beat him to the honor.
The two quarterbacks are being listed as the +500 co-betting choices to win in the 2022 NFL OROY odds. This despite the facts that Willis played at Liberty, a mid-major and NFL bird dogs claiming that Pittsburgh’s Pickett’s hands are too small.
2022 NFL OROY of the Year Odds
|Malik Willis-QB (Liberty)||+500|
|Kenny Pickett-QB (Pitt)||+500|
|Breece Hall-RB (Iowa State)||+800|
|Treylon Burks-WR (Arkansas)||+1000|
|Garrett Wilson-WR (Ohio State)||+1000|
|Drake London-WR (USC)||+1000|
|Kenneth Walker III-RB (Michigan State)||+1200|
|Jameson Williams-WR (Alabama)||+1200|
|Desmond Ridder-QB (Cincinnati)||+1400|
|Sam Howell-QB (North Carolina)||+1600|
|Chris Olave-WR (Ohio State)||+1600|
|Jahan Dotson-WR (Penn State)||+1800|
|Matt Corral-QB (Ole Miss)||+2000|
|Isaiah Spiller-RB (Texas A&M)||+2500|
|Skyy Moore-WR (Western Michigan)||+3000|
|George Pickens-WR (Georgia)||+3000|
|Kyren Williams-RB (Notre Dame)||+4000|
|Carson Strong-QB (Nevada)||+4000|
|Trey McBride-TE (Colorado State)||+5000|
|John Metchie III-WR (Alabama)||+5000|
|Jalen Tolbert-WR (South Alabama)||+5000|
|James Cook-RB (Georgia)||+5000|
|Christian Watson-WR (North Dakota State)||+5000|
|Dameon Pierce-RB (Florida)||+5000|
Odds as of April 12th at DraftKings Sportsbook
QBs have won three of the past six NFL OROY awards. Running backs have won twice over that span and Iowa State RB Breece Hall is the +800 third betting choice. But it was a wide reciever, Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals, who ran off with the honor in 2021.
Only once have wide receivers been named NFL OROY in successive seasons. That was Louis Lipps of the Pittsburgh Steelers (1984) and Eddie Brown of the Bengals (1985).
Can Kenny Pick It?
The last two NFL seasons, there was a clear-cut rookie favorite in the futures market among the QB class. It was Joe Burrow in 2020 and Trevor Lawrence in 2021. The class of 2022 offers no such valedictorian. In fact, analytics are stating that there’s really no difference between the top five QBs among this year’s rookie crop.
That being the case, football people are nitpicking. And one of the factors they seem to be zeroing in on is the size of Pitt QB Pickett’s hands. At 8.5 inches, they measure in on the smaller end of the spectrum in what’s considered optimal size for an NFL QB.
Pitt QB Kenny Pickett didn’t have his hands measured here in Mobile, but he has a good reason: He’s double jointed, so his thumb naturally points an odd direction, and he’s doing extra exercises to get an accurate measurement at the combine in March. pic.twitter.com/KLMdraG9AC
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 31, 2022
Per ESPN stats & info, the average hand size for the 39 quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft between 2008-2020 is 9.7 inches.
Questions Also Abound About Willis
There’s been some speculation that the Detroit Lions might reach for Willis with the second pick of the draft. That’s probably more far-fetched than factual.
While his arm strength and mobility are impressive, scouts don’t like how Willis overreacts to reads and feel he pulls the ball down and runs too quickly into the play.
🙏🏾💪🏾Preciate y’all having me https://t.co/QURsdlMDV2
— Malik Willis (@malikwillis) April 8, 2022
Based upon the question marks being put forth about all of the top QBs in this rookie class, it might be another year to avoid putting a wager down on a QB to be NFL OROY. NFL teams certainly aren’t betting on there being a Burrow, Justin Herbert, Mac Jones or Lawrence among this bunch. Otherwise, why would so many teams – Washington (Carson Wentz), Denver (Russell Wilson), Cleveland (Deshaun Watson) and Indianapolis (Matt Ryan) have opted to trade for veteran QBs even before the draft?
NFL ROY Betting Trends
Based on recent NFL OROY selections, perhaps it’s best to wait until after the NFL Draft to place a wager. Each of the last four winners were selected among the top six choices on draft day.
— Cincinnati 💔 (@CincyProblems) February 11, 2022
Two of them finished among the top four in the Heisman Trophy voting and one won a national championship in their final year of college ball.
Is It a Wideout World?
Six of the top 12 choices in the NFL OROY betting line are wide receivers. There’s speculation that Arkansas wideout Treylon Burks (+1000) could be headed to Green Bay in the NFL Draft. Getting the other end of Aaron Rodgers aerials isn’t a bad path to NFL OROY honors.
Treylon Burks is my favorite player in this draft and it really isn't close. pic.twitter.com/TZUlr0stVl
— Brenden Deeg (@BrendenDeegNFP) April 6, 2022
Likewise, there’s talk that Ohio State’s Chris Olave (+1600) is of interest to the Chargers, who’d be pairing him with Herbert.
OROY Best Bet: Treylon Burks (Arkansas) +1000