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Patrick Mahomes Heavily Favored to Pass for Most Yards in NFL Conference Finals

Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes is favored (-130) to lead the NFL in passing yardage on Conference Championship Sunday. Photo by Jordan Kelly/Icon Sportswire.
  • Pat Mahomes is the favorite (-130) to lead the NFL in passing yards on Conference Championship Weekend
  • The Chiefs’ quarterback had 321 yards and five touchdowns against the Texans during the divisional round
  • Mahomes leads the odds which include Jimmy Garoppolo (+260), Aaron Rodgers (+300), and Ryan Tannehill (+800)

With the conference championship games under a week away, it is Pat Mahomes who is favored (-130) to lead the league in passing yards this Sunday. He’s coming off of an instant-classic performance against Houston, and according to sportsbooks, he’ll ride that wave of momentum into this matchup with Tennessee.

The Chiefs’ quarterback leads an interesting pack of passers that includes the 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo (+260), the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers (+300), and the Titans’ Ryan Tannehill (+800).

Odds to Lead NFL Championship Sunday in Passing Yards

Player Odds
Pat Mahomes, KC -130
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF +260
Aaron Rodgers, GB +300
Ryan Tannehill, TEN +800

Odds taken Jan 13.

How Have Favorites Fared?

Through the first two weeks of the NFL Playoffs, the favorite in this prop has yet to finish the weekend with the highest passing yardage total of the league’s passers. On Wild Card Weekend, it was the Saints’ Drew Brees that was the +200 favorite. He went on to finish with just 208 yards against Minnesota, good for just sixth in the league on the weekend.

Instead, it was Russell Wilson who rewarded bettors. He led the league with 325 yards in the weekend’s final game against Philadelphia. He had been tied for second in the odds with Tom Brady (who had just 209 yards against Tennessee) at +500.

It was a similar story during the divisional round. Pat Mahomes was the +125 favorite, but it was the quarterback across from him who would have the most passing yards on the weekend. Despite being ninth in the odds at +900, Houston’s Deshaun Watson led the league over the weekend with 388 yards in the Texans-Chiefs shootout on Sunday.

Mahomes was no slouch, however. In leading Kansas City to a historic, 24-point comeback, he threw for 321 yards and five touchdowns. He may not have been the winning ticket for bettors, but his performance can only serve to solidify his place as the favorite in the upcoming weekend.

What’s the Best Bet?

At +300, Aaron Rodgers appears to be a value bet, as one of the best to ever do it. However, he’ll face a defense that, aside from New England, was the best unit in the league in San Francisco. They ended Kirk Cousins’ breakout season on Saturday by holding him to just 172 yards through the air.

Ironically, while Mahomes is the favorite, it is his defense that is the most porous unit remaining. That nugget may make Ryan Tannehill’s +800 odds look attractive, but through two playoff games, he’s posting just 80 yards per game through the air. His opposition isn’t the strongest, but that doesn’t guarantee a big day. The Titans will still run everything through Derrick Henry.

Mahomes is the favorite this weekend, largely due to the fact that he has the best combination of skill and opponent. There are cases to be made for other quarterbacks, but Mahomes has the highest potential when it comes to passing yardage.

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