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NFL Props to Target for Wild Card Weekend When Lines Open

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Jan 10, 2023 · 7:13 AM PST

Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne runs to the field
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) takes to the field before of a regular season NFL football matchup Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. The Jacksonville Jaguars edged the Dallas Cowboys 40-34 in overtime. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] Jki 121822 Cowboys Jags Cp 112
  • There are some NFL props that bettors should be all over when the lines open for the Wild Card Weekend games
  • The San Francisco 49ers run defense has smothered Seattle Seahawks RB Kenny Walker III in two meetings this season
  • Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers allowed the most yards per carry during the NFL regular season, which should bode well for the rushing yardage total of Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne

NFL Wild Card Weekend is upon us, as the betting smorgasbord known better as the NFL Playoffs gets underway. With six games on tap, there’s a plethora of opportunities to get action.

Naturally, player props are going to be high on many to-do lists this week. And just like holiday shopping, it’s never too early to get started.

Here’s a look at some of the key Wild Card Weekend NFL player props you should be targeting when the odds drop later this week.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Player Props to Target

Player (Team) Prop
Dawson Knox (BUF) Anytime TD scorer
Travis Etienne (JAX) Over rushing yards total
Joe Burrow (CIN) Under passing touchdowns total
Kenny Walker (SEA) Under rushing yards total
Tom Brady (TB) Over passing yards total
TJ Hockenson (MIN)) Over receptions total

See our top early prop bets to target for the NFL Wild Card Weekend here. 


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Seahawks Walker Doesn’t Run vs 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers run a tight ship when it comes to their run defense. They’ve allowed just 77.7 yards per game, which is #2 in the NFL and 3.4 yards per game, which shares the NFL lead.

That hasn’t boded well this season for Seattle Seahawks’ rookie running back Kenny Walker III. The -110 odds-on favorite in the NFL OROY odds, Walker hasn’t been able to get loose for much in the way of gains against San Francisco.

In Week 2, which was Walker’s NFL debut, the 49ers held him to 10 yards on the ground from four carries. In Week 14, Walker carried 12 times for 47 yards against the San Francisco defense. In two games facing the 49ers, he’s showing 3.5 yards per carry.

In that second meeting, Walker’s over/under for rushing yardage was set at 49.5 yards. Even if the total drops a bit lower for this game, the under still looks to be the play.

Bills TE Is Fort Knox to Anytime TD Prop Bettors

When it comes to catching touchdown passes, Buffalo Bills TE Dawson Knox is money. And Bills quarterback Josh Allen knows it.

In their 35-23 Week 18 over the New England Patriots, Allen found Knox in the end zone. It was the fourth successive game in which the Buffalo TE has snared himself a touchdown aerial. He caught one against the New York Jets on December 11, found the end zone again against the Dolphins on December 17 at the Chicago Bears on Christmas Eve and vs the Patriots on Sunday. Three of the four TD catches for Knox have come in home games, so he’s a guy who comes through in the cold.

His latest score was a four-yard strike, but again, that wasn’t at all surprising. Knox is Buffalo’s money man in the red zone. Five of his last six TD catches have come in the red zone.

Despite this recent run of success, bettors were still getting +240 odds last week at Caesars Sportsbook for an anytime Knox TD. But if you’re really looking for a price. Nyheim Hines is also on fire. His two kick return TDs against the Patriots gave him three TDs over the past two games. Last week, bettors could get +1100 odds on a Hines second-half TD.

Jaguars Etienne Could Have Field Day Against Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers’ run defense is the opposite of San Francisco’s squad. They’re just terrible at stopping the run.

When the Jacksonville Jaguars crushed the Chargers 38-10 in Week 3, Jaguars RB Travis Etienne had a quiet day. He carried the ball 13 times for 45 yards. Expect him to be a much busier man during the Wild Card Weekend between these two teams.

Etienne has gone over 100 yards in five of the past 11 games en route to rushing for 1,125 yards. Two weeks ago against Houston, he went for 108 yards on nine carries.

The Texans are one of five NFL teams to allow more than 5+ yards per carry this season. The worst of the bunch is the Chargers. They’re surrendering 5.4 yards per rush in 2022-23.

Expect a Brady Bunch vs Cowboys

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady is 7-0 straight up in seven starts facing the Dallas Cowboys. In those seven games, he’s thrown for an average of 277.8 yards per game, and 2.14 TDs per game.

Lately, Brady has been looking like, well . . . Brady. Forget last week’s meaningless game against Atlanta when he only played briefly. In his last seven full starts, he’s thrown for at least two TDs five times. Brady has thrown for more than 277.8 yards in four of the past five games.

If this is Brady’s swan song in the NFL, don’t expect him to go out with a whimper. Bet him to light up the Dallas defense when his passing touchdown props open.

Burrow Under Bengals QB TD Pass Number

In two games against the Baltimore Ravens this season, Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow has thrown for exactly one TD in each game. In this case, though, one isn’t the loneliest number, because Burrow is keeping some pretty good company.

The Ravens have also held Brady, Josh Allen, and Andy Dalton to one TD pass. In fact, in 10 of the last 11 games, Baltimore has given up one or fewer TD passes. Overall, the Ravens’ defense is allowing on average 12.2 points per game since Week 13.

The standard TD pass prop for an NFL QB is 1.5. That’s what Burrow was given against Baltimore in last week’s game. Expect it to be the same this week, and bet Burrow to go under.

Vikings’ Hockenson Went Off Against Giants

In their 27-24 Christmas Eve victory over the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins only had eyes for two targets. He threw 16 times each to WR Justin Jefferson and TE TJ Hockenson.

Jefferson caught 12 balls for 133 yards and a TD. Hockenson snared 13 passes for 109 yards and two TDs.

Going into that game, Hockenson had hit the under on his receiving yardage prop four weeks in a row. Obviously, there was something in the Giants’ defense that Cousins was able to take advantage of to give Hockenson a huge day. That’s a well they figure to be looking to tap once more. Play the over on Hockenson total receptions.

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