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Saints Become New Super Bowl 53 Favorites After Week 11

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Nov 20, 2018 · 6:40 PM PST

Alvin Kamara Saints RB
Alvin Kamara posted 108 yards from scrimmage and 1 TD in the Saints Week 11 win over the Eagles. (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire)
  • The New Orleans Saints beat the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles 48-7 in Week 11
  • Saints have now won nine straight games
  • The Rams won an epic Monday Night Football game against the Chiefs, 54-51, but have relinquished the title of Super Bowl favorite

Entering Week 11, the New Orleans Saints had built up enough momentum with their eight-game winning streak, and impressed enough online sports betting sites in the process, that they only trailed the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 53 odds – +390 to +360, respectively.

But after a ninth-straight win, this time in a pounding of the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles (48-7), the odds-makers have seen enough to crown a new Super Bowl 53 favorite: the New Orleans Saints.

Odds to Win Super Bowl 53

Team Super Bowl 53 Odds
New Orleans Saints +250
Los Angeles Rams +350
Kansas City Chiefs +600
New England Patriots +700
Pittsburgh Steelers +750

*Follow the link in the table to see all betting options; odds taken 11/20

To see the movement, check out our Super Bowl 53 Odds Tracker.

Saints the New Favorites

Looking across a number of our most trusted online sports betting sites, the Saints carry average odds of +290 to win Super Bowl 53.

The move up the board should come as no surprise to bettors. In the last four weeks the Saints have:

  • Gone into Minnesota and won 30-20
  • Beat the Rams 45-35
  • Embarrassed the Bengals 51-14 in Cincinnati
  • And now handed the defending champs a 48-7 whooping

What shouldn’t be overly surprising is the Saints leading the NFL in points scored (37.8 per game). But the real concern for the rest of the league is the way their defense is playing lately.

In those last four games, they have generated eight turnovers and only allowed more than 23 points to be scored once. The Saints possess the league’s second-ranked run defense, only allowing 77.9 points per game – only allow 3.7 YPC (5th).

If Drew Brees can get this kind of effort from his defense, it’s hard to argue they’re not the best team in football.

Rams Overtaken as Favorites After a Win

After last night’s epic win over the Kansas City Chiefs, 54-51, the Los Angeles Rams actually saw their average Super Bowl 53 odds get a little shorter, too, going from +360 to +340.

But after giving up 51 points, 448 yards through the air, and 546 total yards, we’re noticing some clear vulnerabilities on this Rams roster.

Marcus Peters recorded the game-sealing interception on Monday night, but it was one of his rare bright moments this season.

The 25-year-old has been picked on all season, surrendering a 129 passer rating when targeted, receiving a 45.5 coverage grade, per PFF.

Peters isn’t the only one being exposed, either. Sam Shields and Troy Hill are allowing passer ratings of 143.2 and 137.4, respectively, and both are receiving coverage grades under 55.

The good news is help is on the way. Aqib Talib is eligible to return from the IR in Week 13, and sounds like he’ll be ready to play well before the end of the regular season.

Is There Value Left in Either?

At +350, I don’t mind the Rams. They’re 10-1; they have a ton of talent on defense; and I’m not sure there’s a better offensive mind than Sean McVay in the game.

But I’d probably wait until after Week 14, when they head to Soldier Field to play the Bears, to make any wagers on them. Their odds can’t get much shorter at this point, but you’d likely find some longer odds after another loss.

When it comes to the Saints, there’s very little value left. They’re simply too hot right now. But with four of their final six games against division rivals, along with a Week 16 meeting with the Steelers, you’re best to wait for these odds to get a little longer.

Where is the Value Right Now?

If you haven’t invested in the Pats yet, it’s still a good time.

I hate it just as much as you do. But it’ll make watching them win another Super Bowl easier to swallow.

Don’t fall for the Bears until they prove they can win on the road. Because they will likely have to in order to make it to the Super Bowl.

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