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NFL Team Trends You Don’t Want to Miss for Week 4 – Broncos on 11-3 Under Trend

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Sep 28, 2022 · 10:00 AM PDT

5 Crazy NFL Team Trends
Sep 25, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; San Francisco 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward (7) forces a fumble against Denver Broncos running back Melvin Gordon III (25) as safety Tashaun Gipson Sr. (31) defends in the third quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Denver Broncos have gone under the total in 11 of the past 14 games
  • In New York, the Giants haven’t won and covered as a home favorite since 2019
  • What NFL team trends should you be looking for entering Week 4 of the NFL season?

When it comes to NFL team trends, the New York Giants are as excited to try to win as a home favorite as the New York Jets are about trying to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers. And the NFL team playing at the highest altitude is the best bet in the league to go low.

New York’s NFC team failed to cover as the home chalk on Monday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys, but that’s just business as usual for the New York football Giants. Meanwhile, the Jets are going to Pittsburgh, where they’ve won once in 11 previous visits.

Speaking of frequently going under, the Denver Broncos have yet to score 17 points in a game this season. On the other hand, both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Carolina Panthers got out from under long, drawn-out skids.

Heading into Week 4, these are the NFL team betting trends that are worthy of your consideration.

 

Broncos the Best NFL Under Bet

Three weeks into the NFL season, Denver has scored 16, 16 and 11 points. Amazingly, the Broncos are 2-1 both SU and ATS. The team from the Mile High City has also gone under three games in a row.

Going back to last season, the Broncos are 3-11 on the total to the under in NFL team trends. Denver has scored 17 or fewer points in five of the past seven games.

Giants Abysmal Home Favorites in NFL Team Trends

The Dallas Cowboys went into Met Life Stadium for the Week 3 MNF game and dropped the New York Giants as 1-point road underdogs. As for the Giants, it was just the third time over the past three seasons that they kicked off a game as the home chalk. Over that span, they’re 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS.

In fact, you have to go back to the 2019 NFL season to locate a game when the Giants took the field as the home chalk and left the field having won and covered in NFL team trends. That was a December 15, 2019 game against the Miami Dolphins. The Giants won 36-30 as 3.5-point home favorites.

New York Giants As Home Favorite

Season Straight Up Against The Spread
2022 0-1 0-1
2021 0-1 0-1
2020 1-0 0-1
2019 2-1 2-1
2018 1-1 0-1-1

It was so long ago, it was actually three coaches ago for the Giants. Pat Shurmer was in charge for that victory. Joe Judge never covered as the home chalk in charge of the Giants. Brian Daboll failed in his first chance to do so.

Daboll and the Giants get another crack at it this week. They’re getting three points in the NFL odds as they play host to the Chicago Bears. The Giants are also getting 88% of the spread handle in the NFL public betting splits.

Jets 1-10 in Pittsburgh

The only Jets quarterback to lead them to victory in Pittsburgh? Joe Namath? Richard Todd?

How about Mark Sanchez? He led the Jets to a 22-17 win at Pittsburgh in Week 15 of the 2010 season.

Otherwise, the picture in Pittsburgh is bleak for the Jets. New York is 1-10 SU on the road against the Steelers. The Jets are 3-7-1 ATS in the Steel City.

Pittsburgh is set as the 3.5-point home chalk in Sunday’s meeting.

Jaguars Halt Road Skid

The NFL’s longest road losing streak is no more. Jacksonville marched into SoFi Field and stomped the Los Angeles Chargers 38-10. The outcome ended an 18-game road losing skid for the Jaguars.

Jacksonville’s previous away win was so long ago, it came in a city that no longer houses an NFL team. On December 22, 2019, the Jaguars won 20-16 at Oakland over the Raiders.

Jacksonville Jaguars Road Record

Season SU ATS
2022 1-1 1-1
2021 0-8 2-6
2020 0-8 4-4
2019 3-5 4-4
2018 2-6 2-5-1

The Jaguars won that game as 6.5-point road underdogs. They beat the Chargers in Week 3 as 6.5-point road underdogs. And if you believe in the theory that things happen in three, Jacksonville goes to Philadelphia this week as a 6.5-point road underdog.

It’s a homecoming for Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson. He’s the only coach to ever lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl title. It’s also pitting the QBs who won the CFP national titles in 2017 (Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts with Alabama) and 2018 (Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence with Clemson).

Panthers Finally Cover

Another long stretch of failure came to an end at Carolina on Sunday when the Panthers dropped the New Orleans Saints 22-14. The outcome was halting an 0-9 against the spread run by the Panthers. It was the longest active ATS losing streak in NFL team trends. Only the 1984 Houston Oilers (11) and the 1989 Dallas Cowboys (10) assembled longer ATS losing skids.

Carolina lost back-to-back games to the Cleveland Browns (-1.5) and the Giants (-1) as the betting favorite in picks against the spread to open the 2022 season. Concluding last season with seven straight ATS losses, the Panthers failed to cover three times as the chalk.

Carolina also failed to cover in three games as a double-digit point underdog – 10.5 points at Tampa Bay (41-17 loss), home to the Buccaneers as 11-point dogs (32-6 loss) and at Buffalo as 14.5 underdogs (31-14 loss).

Week 4 presents an interesting test case for the Panthers. They’re facing the Arizona Cardinals for the fourth successive season. Carolina is 3-0 SU and ATS in the past three games against the Cardinals. The Panthers have won outright as an underdog in all three meetings.

Carolina is a 1.5-point home favorite playing host to Arizona on Sunday.

 

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