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Upset Picks for Week 6 in NFL: The Flyin Eagles and Flailin Phins Both Offer Value

Carson Wentz takes a snap
Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles are a popular underdog this week. Can they halt the Minnesota Vikings ground game? Photo by All-Pro Reels (Flickr).
  • The Philadelphia Eagles are getting points in Minnesota in a crucial game against the Vikings 
  • Heinous Washington and hopeless Miami meet in a battle of brutal teams: why not take the one getting long odds?
  • We’re up another 2 units after Week 5, bringing our yearly winnings to +5.72

With two winning weeks in a row here at underdog picks, we’ve accomplished something Washington and Miami fans can’t even begin to fathom. And yet, one of them will get off the schneid this week and we simply had to make that part of our picks.

After all, the lines for Week 6 in the NFL don’t offer a ton of big underdogs. So we’re going to play a few 3-point games again, including that Dolphins-Redskins game that may actually only have one field goal scored. But first, a good matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings Odds

Team Spread Moneyline
Philadelphia Eagles +3 +150
Minnesota Vikings -3 -170

Odds taken 10/11/19.

The public is loving the Eagles this week, so this moneyline doesn’t offer the best value. But I can’t talk myself into going with the sharps here.

Even with injuries along the defensive line, the Eagles still lead the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed, limiting opponents to 63 a game. This should be another game that Kirk Cousins needs to get it done for the Vikings offense to have success. And you hate to be betting the purple and gold when that’s the case.

Philly’s secondary is in rough shape, making it enticing for those that want to talk themselves into another strong Cousins performance. But at home, in front of an uneasy Minnesota crowd, I would argue their erratic passer is under even more pressure than on the road.

The Vikings are the only team in the NFL to alternate wins and losses each week, meaning they’re on deck for another L. Plus, the Eagles are also 14-9 ATS as an underdog in the Doug Pederson era.

Pick: 2 units on the Eagles moneyline (+150)

Washington Redskins vs Miami Dolphins Odds

Team Spread Moneyline
Washington Redskins -3.5 -195
Miami Dolphins +3.5 +170

This game sets out to answer that age old paradox: what happens when an unwinnable force meets an immovable offense?

The Phins and Skins are so inept, the odds this slog ends in a tie aren’t even that far-fetched. Washington played one of their last cards in their hunt for win no. 1, firing Jay Gruden this week. The move may help, as teams that dispatch their head coach are 10-14 SU in the next game. Unfortunately, most teams aren’t putting Bill Callahan in charge.

Miami may have offloaded anyone with a hint of Pro Bowl talent for draft picks, but they do have the best quarterback in this game. Josh Rosen isn’t getting much help from a cast of JV receivers and lineman, but he has made some nice throws against decent defenses, a category Washington definitely doesn’t fall in.

The fact that Washington is giving 3.5 here insinuates a wider gap between these teams than I’m seeing. Miami is definitely the value play here on the moneyline. But only bet on them. Don’t watch a second of this game.

I fear anyone who does will end up getting the Raiders of the Lost Ark treatment.

Pick: 1 unit on the Dolphins moneyline (+170)

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