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NFL Week 3 Picks Straight Up – Predicted Upsets and Underdogs Showing Value

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NFL Football

Updated Sep 23, 2023 · 1:24 PM PDT

Los Angeles Rams wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field
Aug 26, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (17) and wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) before the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
  • Two NFL Week 3 underdogs are good value to pull off upsets
  • The resurgent LA Rams get to face a slumping Cincinnati Bengals team that’s dealing with key injuries
  • Below, see the best NFL upset picks for Week 3

There is no question what the best loss in the NFL was last weekend. The Los Angeles Rams, who opened with an NFL win total of just 7.5, went toe-to-toe with the Super Bowl favorite San Francisco 49ers, ultimately falling 30-23 in a game that was much closer than the final score suggests.

The Rams also impressed in Week 1 with a 30-13 rout of the Seahawks in Seattle as 5.5-point underdogs. In Week 3, they travel to the 0-2 Cincinnati Bengals, whose star QB, Joe Burrow, is laboring under a calf injury. Despite Burrow’s ailment, the Bengals are still 2.5-point home chalk. So the Week 3 upset picks are going to start with the 2022 Super Bowl champions continuing their upward trajectory.

NFL Week 3 Upset Picks

Matchup Spread Pick Moneyline Units
Rams vs Bengals CIN -3 Rams +136 1
Saints vs Packers GB -1 Saints -105 1.05

The Rams are +136 underdogs at the Bengals, while in the second upset pick of the week, the  Saints are slight -105 underdogs at the Packers.

The Rams vs Bengals game will be part one of the Monday Night Football doubleheader on Sep. 25. Saints vs Packers goes at  1:00 pm ET on Sunday, Sep. 24.

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Upset Pick #1: Rams over Bengals

While you’ll have to wait until Monday night to find out if this bet cashes, it gets prominence here because of the level of confidence. The LA Rams are not  the team that suffered through an injury-plagued 5-12 campaign last year. They are much closer to the team that won Super Bowl __ over these very same Cincinnati Bengals. Sean McVay’s group showed that in Week 1 when they dismantled the Seattle Seahawks – a playoff team last year – 30-13 on the road in one of the most-hostile environments.

The Bengals have looked out of sorts in both of their games to date, and that was with a relatively healthy Burrow under center. They were nearly shutout during a mucky 24-3 road loss to Cleveland in Week 1, and then couldn’t dig out of an early hole in a 27-24 home loss to Baltimore in Week 2.

Burrow is just 41-72 (56.9 completion percentage) so far with 304 yards, two TDs, and a pick. And now he’ll have to face an Aaron Donald-led pass rush that’s sure to make his life miserable, if he plays.

Rams stud rookie Puka Nacua landed on the injury report this week with an oblique injury, but there is no suggestion the team’s leading receiver won’t play. Nacua has piled up 266 on a preposterous 25 catches through his first two NFL games. Second-year pro Tutu Atwell would be generating more headlines if not for Nacua; the Louisville product has 196 yards of his own through two games. Even without Cooper Kupp, there is more than enough weaponry here to move the ball against a Cincinnati defense that doesn’t dominate any facet of the game.

SBD’s NFL score predictor for Week 3 lists this spread – which, again, favors the Bengals by a field goal, as the most susceptible to an upset.

As a side note: Nacua and Atwell have receiving yard over/unders of 62.5 and 55.5, respectively, in the Week 3 NFL player props. Consider targeting both overs.

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Upset Pick #2: Saints over Packers

This week’s second upset pick comes from Green Bay where the 2-0 New Orleans Saints enter as slight one-point road underdogs to the Packers at Lambeau Field.

While the Saints’ wins have only come by a combined four points, they have still be full value for the Ws. In Week 1, they outgained the visiting Tennessee Titans 351 to 285 during a 16-15 win, while generating three turnovers and three sacks. In Week 2, they outgained Carolina 341 to 239 while racking up another four sacks and a fumble recovery in a 20-17 win. They led both games by at least a touchdown in the fourth quarter before late scores from their opponents made the finals tight.

The 1-1 Packers are coming off a devastating road loss at Atlanta. Green Bay was up 24-12 entering the fourth but gave up 13 unanswered points in a 25-24 setback. In reality, the Packers were somewhat lucky to have built the margin they did. They only managed 224 total yards on the day (140 through the air) while allowing 446. Atlanta shot itself in the foot with 110 penalty yards.

Perhaps most concerning for Green Bay was the way Falcon RB Bijan Robinson carved up their defense for 124 yards on 19 carries. New Orleans has one of the more run-heavy attacks in the NFL, with a 70/60 pass/run split through two games. Second-year head coach Dennis Allen is  likely to bring a conservative game plan to Lambeau. Look for New Orleans to run the ball, grind out some field goals early, and lean on their elite defense to edge out another narrow win.

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