NHL Free Agent Odds Predict Tavares Signs With …

• NHL free agency starts on July 1 and John Tavares will be the biggest prize unless the Islanders re-sign him stat.
• The crop of defensemen is thin, but John Carlson will fetch a massive contract if he isn’t re-upped by Washington. 
• Get the latest odds on where the biggest free agents will land, including the imminent return of Ilya Kovalchuk. 

Signing high-priced free agents is not a sustainable method for building a winning team. But that fact hasn’t stopped general managers the league over from shelling out millions year after year.

Just last summer, the Canadiens overpaid for a past-his-prime Karl Alzner (5 years, $23 million). The year before, Jason Demers signed a similar deal with the Panthers (5 years, $22.5 million), and the Oilers took a huge swing-and-miss on Milan Lucic (7 years, $42 million).

The lack of quality free agents drove up the prices for the dregs that were available, which makes it scary to think what will happen on July 1, which is when John Tavares, John Carlson, and quiet 36-goal-scorer James Van Riemsdyk could all hit the open market.

Before getting to the odds on where that trio will sign, along with the rest of the top-10 unrestricted free agents in the 2018 class, let’s look at the lineage of the eligible bachelors.

Top 10 NHL Free Agents 2018

Not only is this group stacked at the top, it also has decent depth versus recent years. Failing to even cracking the top 10 are players like Riley Nash (15 G, 41 PTS) and Tyler Bozak (11 G. 43 PTS).

Realistically, Joe Thornton and Rick Nash are in the top 10 more because of name-value than their projected impact. While Nash did pot 42 goals four years ago, it’s been almost a decade since he was at the top of his game. Thornton’s prime is even further in the rearview mirror and he’ll be little more than a PP specialist wherever he ends up.

Don’t let those sour notes contaminate what will (potentially) be on offer, though. It’s a good year to have money to spend.

1. John Tavares

The Islanders are favored to retain the best impending FA. He’s been the face of the franchise since he was drafted first overall in 2009, and recently, the team has finally started trying to build a winner around him, dealing for Jordan Eberle and signing two-time Stanley Cup-winner Andrew Ladd.

If Tavares reaches free agency, his hometown leafs have the edge … [A] forward group [with] Tavares, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner might not need much defense to make a deep playoff run.

If he reaches free agency, his hometown Leafs have the edge. A shutdown defenseman is the more pressing need, for certain, but do you see Nick Lidstrom coming out of retirement? Plus, a forward group that contains Tavares, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner might not need much defense to make a deep playoff run.

2. John Carlson

The incumbent is once again the favorite with Carlson, but less so than with Tavares. The Caps don’t have nearly as much cap space as the Islanders, and Carlson is likely to fetch around $8 million as a free agent, similar to the extension that Oliver Ekman-Larsson just signed with the Coyotes (8 years, $66 million).

Vegas, on the other hand, has a ton of cap room plus the GM (George McPhee) who originally drafted Carlson back in 2008. Will he be convinced that Carlson is the piece that puts his Knights over the top?

If not and the Leafs lose out in the Tavares sweepstakes, Toronto could wind up using some of its $20 million in cap space on Carlson, who would significantly upgrade their blueline.

3. James van Riemsdyk

There is no clear frontrunner for Van Riemsdyk at this point. Jersey has a lot of cap space and even more need: Taylor Hall had 41 more points than the next highest scorer on the Devils. Can you say “secondary scoring?” No one in Newark can.

The Leafs are certainly in the running to retain him, as he provided significant value and incredible depth, notching 36 goals while skating on the third line (though 11 came on the PP). But he would almost certainly have to take a substantial discount to stay in Toronto.

4. Paul Stastny

Stastny, who was dealt from the Blues to the Jets at the deadline last year, is likely to find himself in a familiar spot come September. The longtime Av and University of Denver product is rumored to be high on Colorado’s list of priorities.

The Canadiens are in desperate need of (good) centers and have money to spend. Already paying big money to Carey Price and Shea Weber, going into a full-on rebuild isn’t really an option, especially in the hyper-competitive Montreal market. Unlikely to land Tavares, they may go hard after Stastny, who was born in the province while his dad (Peter) was playing for the Quebec Nordiques.

5. Ilya Kovalchuk

Look who wants to come back to the NHL! With his KHL contract at an end, Kovalchuk is returning stateside to cross off the last item on his bucket list: a Stanley Cup. And he’s coming back at an elite level. The 35-year-old led the KHL in scoring last year with 63 points in 53 games. Granted, Nigel Dawes led the league in goals (35) and Linden Vey was fifth in points (52), which says a lot about the quality of play.

Reports suggest he’d prefer to stay on the east coast, where he spent his entire 11-year NHL career. Boston doesn’t have a lot of cap space at the moment (~$7.5 million), but the Bs are trying to make moves to free up more and have already met with Kovalchuk this offseason. While the Sharks, Kings, and Rangers also have substantial interest, the Bruins fit the bill best, being a legitimate east-coast contender.

6. James Neal

Even though he was an integral part of Vegas’ Stanley Cup run, the 30-year-old Neal doesn’t really fit the mold of what the speed-focused Knights are looking for. Coming off another 20-goal season (the 10th in his 10-year career), he will be looking for a 15-20% raise and an extended term (5-7 years), which is concerning for someone his age.

That said, bringing the band back together has to be an appealing option for George McPhee, and Neal has stated how happy he is with the team.

“Honestly I just want to win. I want to be part of a great team. I want to have fun coming to the rink every day. I got that here, so, whatever it takes, hopefully we can work something out.” – Neal https://t.co/dJ0GaIRDnk

— David Schoen ??? (@DavidSchoenLVRJ) June 8, 2018

Elsewhere, the Stars have almost $20 million in cap space, a need for more secondary scoring, and a good history with Neal, who spent his first three seasons with the club. But there’s no clear second choice at this point.

7. David Perron

Vegas likely can’t/won’t keep both Neal and Perron, and Neal is more likely to stay after Perron followed a tremendous regular season with a lousy playoff performance, which saw him scratched once during the finals.

The same teams in the market for Neal will be in the market for Perron. Both are goal-scoring wingers who need to be paired with a play-driving center to be at their most effective.

8. Mike Green

The Wings have made short-term offers to their top d-man, but now 36 years old, Green is likely looking to max out the term of his next deal, knowing it’s potentially his last. While it’s a sellers market for defensemen this year, the rebuilding Wings aren’t likely to budge on term, wanting to keep max flexibility with younger players in the coming years.

If Washington loses Carlson, they become the prohibitive favorite to land the former Capital, who proved he can still contribute offensively and posted a rock-solid 52.4% Corsi on a bad Detroit team in 2016-17. He spent the first 10 years of his career in DC and was willing to waive his no-trade clause to go back last season.

9. Rick Nash

The three teams with pre-existing relationships with Nash top the list, but none is a huge favorite. Nash is not only getting on in age (34), he’s also coming off a concussion that severely limited his playing time during his post-deadline stint in Beantown.

He’s not likely to be a hot commodity on the open market and may be valued more for his leadership than his play, which is one of the reasons why the teams familiar with his character are at the top.

[Nash is] not likely to be a hot commodity on the open market and may be valued more for his leadership than his play …

Based on his emotional farewell from the Rangers, his heart lies in the Big Apple. In terms of on-ice need, the Bruins certainly need depth. Their top line of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Patrice Bergeron accounted for 99 of the team’s 270 goals, and Riley Nash (15 G) and Tim Schaller (12 G) are also impending FAs.

10. Joe Thornton

Jumbo Joe wants to stay in San Jose, even though the team unceremoniously stripped him of the captaincy back in 2014. The Sharks won’t be ponying up anything close to the $8 million Thornton made last year, and neither will anyone else. As stated at the top, he’ll be little more than a PP specialist wherever he lands. Not the fastest skater to begin with, the plodding 38-year-old is a terrible fit in the modern NHL, which is getting younger and faster by the year.

A return to San Jose on a team-friendly deal is still the most plausible outcome.

As for the Canadiens, Thornton might still look like a first-line center to them, that’s just how desperate the Habs are up the middle.

The Leafs are likely to lose third-line center Tyler Bozak in free agency, and with speed to burn everywhere else in the lineup, may be able to afford Thornton’s lumbering presence. He would help replace some of the power-play production of Van Riemsdyk if JVR leaves.

As for the Canadiens, Thornton might still look like a first-line center to them, that’s just how desperate the Habs are up the middle.