Biden’s Odds to Win Democratic Nomination Improve to +250 Thanks to Convincing Win in South Carolina
- Joe Biden easily won the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary, capturing nearly 50% of the vote
- Oddsmakers improved Biden’s odds to win the nomination to +250. Is he back in the race?
- See below for picks and predictions on the Democratic race
The South Carolina Democratic primary couldn’t have gone finer for Joe Biden.
Heavily favored to win, Biden delivered on the odds. The former US Vice-President captured 48.4% of the votes cast to easily distance Bernie Sanders.
The Democratic frontrunner coming into South Carolina, Sanders was far back in second place with 19.9% of ballots cast in his favor.
Oddsmakers were quick to improve Biden’s odds of winning the nomination. They now list him as the second betting choice at odds of +250.
Across the leading sportsbooks, he’d been averaging +667 in the Democratic nomination odds entering South Carolina.
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bernie Sanders | -105 |
| Joe Biden | +250 |
| Michael Bloomberg | +600 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +1600 |
| Hillary Clinton | +2500 |
| Elizabeth Warren | +5000 |
| Michelle Obama | +10000 |
| Amy Klobuchar | +25000 |
| Tom Steyer | +50000 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +50000 |
Odds taken Feb. 29th
Sanders is still the overall leader. Oddsmakers peg Sanders as the -105 chalk.
African Americans Go Heavily For Biden
Exit polls taken by NBC News showed that Biden garnered 61% of black voters in South Carolina. Sanders captured only 16% of the black vote.
Tonight the big story is the Biden Blowout — the big comeback night for a former VP whose humanity and decency finally showed through and won him a major victory in South Carolina. #SouthCarolinaPrimary
— Van Jones (@VanJones68) March 1, 2020
No other Democratic candidate registered with any significance among African Americans in the state. Elizabeth Warren was at 5%. More alarmingly, Pete Buttigieg garnered only 3% of the vote. Amy Klobuchar was at zero.
Buttigieg’s campaign is fading after strong showings in the mostly-white states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Predictions were that Buttigieg’s support would falter in the more diverse states. His poor performances in both Nevada and South Carolina are showing that those prognostications hold merit.
Sanders Downplays Setback
Sanders sought to move on quickly from his biggest primary loss. Saying you can’t win them all, the Vermont Senator quickly turned his attention to March 3rd. Super Tuesday has 14 states up for grabs. It’ll be a true test of who’s the actual frontrunner in this race.
With 59% of SC in, Biden has now passed Sanders in the national popular vote: pic.twitter.com/G7QnYbQ2ZW
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) March 1, 2020
The Sanders campaign invested heavily in Super Tuesday races. Estimates are he’s spent more than 40% more money campaigning in Super Tuesday states than Biden.
Ballots are still being counted in South Carolina. Early math though indicates that Biden will overtake Sanders in terms of popular vote in the Democratic race. However, Sanders still holds the edge in delegates.
Bloomberg Enters Democratic Fray
Super Tuesday marks the first time that former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is on the Democratic ballot. Bloomberg’s support in the polls and odds has waned following his poor debate performances. But he’s spent millions on campaign ads in Super Tuesday states.
So much about the 2020 primary so far makes me doubt the theory of “momentum.” Didn't stop Biden after going 0 for 3, didn't turn Buttigieg into an Obama-like powerhouse post-IA, didn't help Klobuchar post-NH, didn't make Sanders unbeatable post-NV.
Demographics > momentum
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) March 1, 2020
Buttigieg and Klobuchar are quickly fading from relevancy. Tom Steyer officially dropped from the race on Saturday. Might Bloomberg step in and slice into support among moderate Democrats on Super Tuesday, again vaulting Sanders ahead?
Biden On Comeback Trail
South Carolina has proven to be a President maker in the past. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama are among two Democrats whose path to the White House was launched via a win in the South Carolina primary.
In three Presidential bids, Biden had never won a primary race prior to Saturday.
After his win, Biden proclaimed that he was back in the race. But is he really?
After Biden win, powerful VA Dem congressman @BobbyScott aNd former VA Gov @TerryMcAuliffe endorse him pre-Super Tuesday
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) March 1, 2020
Polls indicate Sanders is ahead in both California and Texas. Two of the biggest states voting on Tuesday, they hold 600 delegates up for grabs.
If Sanders can claim both of those states, the Biden bump will prove to be nothing more than a blip on the radar.
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
