Harris, Warren, and Buttigieg’s Democratic Nominee Odds Improve Following Primary Debates; Biden and Sanders’ Fade
- Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren were the big winners from the first Democratic Primary debates
- Harris (+630 to +430) and Warren (+680 to +450) both saw their odds to win the nomination lower significantly
- The odds on Joe Biden (+180 to +240) and Bernie Sanders (+550 to +630) winning lengthened considerably after their debate performances
The camps of Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren were beaming following the first round of Democratic Primary debates.
Warren has been on a steady climb since entering the Presidential race. She made another solid move in the odds. Across a variety of leading sportsbooks, her average Democratic Party Presidential nomination odds improved from +680 to +450.
Likewise, Harris also saw a significant lowering of her odds. Her chances of winning the nomination sat at +630 prior to the debates. Today, her average odds are down to +430.
Pete Buttigieg also turned in a solid debate showing. He saw his odds drop from +600 to +580.
2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds
| Candidate | 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | +200 |
| Kamala Harris | +450 |
| Elizabeth Warren | +450 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +500 |
| Bernie Sanders | +550 |
*Odds taken on 06/28/19. Follow the link in the table above for a complete list of all candidates
Veteran campaigners and early favorites Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders went in the other direction. Though still the betting favorite, Biden slumped from +180 to +240. Sanders is teetering on the brink of no longer being relevant in the race. He climbed from +550 to +630.
Harris Brings the Fire
A debate setting figured to be the perfect scenario for Harris to revive her suddenly flagging candidacy. It certainly proved to be exactly the elixir she needed.
There was a little girl in California who was bussed to school. That little girl was me. #DemDebate pic.twitter.com/XKm2xP1MDH
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) June 28, 2019
A former prosecutor and California Attorney General, she brought her courtroom experience to the podium and delivered telling blows throughout the night. Amidst a verbal battle royale early in the debate as all 10 on stage sought to talk over each other, Harris brought down the house when she suggested that people didn’t want to see a food fight, they wanted to hear how to put food on their table.
Later, the California Senator figuratively body slammed Biden. Harris discussed how she was among the African-American children bused when California schools were desegregated, a move she pointed out that Biden voted against at the time.
Harris displayed she possesses the chops to “prosecute” Donald Trump in a Presidential election.
Over the course of the two debates, Harris was the clear winner. As one pundit suggested, Harris displayed she possesses the chops to “prosecute” Donald Trump in a Presidential election.
Warren is Solid
You won’t get flash and dash with Warren. She’s all about the long game. Perceived as a policy wonk, the interesting fact is that the more people hear from Warren about her policies, the more they like her.
The Massachusetts Senator’s odds have steadily lowered and continued on that pace following the debate. Warren didn’t hit it out of the park like Harris, but she was steady. She answered questions directly. Others opted to go with rhetoric or prepared responses, often having nothing to do with the posed query.
One pet peeve – she starts so many sentences with the word “so.” That can become so annoying.
Biden Shaken, Not Stirred
As the front runner, you knew the other candidates would be coming at Biden.
Apparently, he didn’t.
“The discussion in this race today shouldn't be about the past,” Biden says, defending his track record on race. “We should be talking about how we can do better.” https://t.co/aYIcGo5zvO pic.twitter.com/iwvUjaFcew
— CBS News (@CBSNews) June 28, 2019
It was hard to figure out what was going on inside Biden’s brain. He didn’t fight back strongly when attacked. He frequently fumbled over his words.
In fact, at times it looked almost as though he either didn’t want to be there, or wasn’t quite sure why he was there.
Bernie Fading Fast
The 2016 campaign was perfect fodder for Sanders. It was a two-person race and the two people in it – Sanders and Hillary Clinton – were polar opposites in their approach to many key factors. With so much toxicity toward Clinton, it was easy for Sanders to pick up steam.
"Has your stance changed since 2013?" @maddow asks Sanders on gun stance…
"That's a mischaracterization…" –@BernieSanders
"It's a direct quote," @maddow
*Crowd laughs* #FactCheck #DemDebate2
— Daniela Cado (@Dani_Prica) June 28, 2019
This time around, the room is crowded. It’s proven much harder for Sanders to stand out. He often resembles a grumpy curmudgeon stuck in a place filled with young whippersnappers.
Sanders could be one more bad performance from being all done.
Who to Back?
At this moment, the smart money is to go with Harris or Warren. If Harris can back up her fire with solid policy, the race is hers to win. But Warren has shown staying power. Don’t count her out.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
