Key Midterm Election Races See Kalshi Odds Shift Over Last Week

The 2026 midterm elections take place on Tuesday, and a lot of marquee races have seen big shifts in the odds over the last week.

Kalshi is among the top elections prediction markets, and the platform has seen steady liquidity across political markets.

Here’s a look at some of the top Kalshi market shifts in key midterm elections.

Senate Races With Shifting Kalshi Odds

Here’s a look at some of the key Senate races that have seen a lot of activity in odds shifting over the last week.

Who Will Control the Senate?

One broader market that has seen a lot of change in the last week is over which party will control the U.S. Senate.

While Democrats have been favored in the Kalshi markets since mid-September, things have steadily improved in their favor, with the implied probability continuing to rise.

At the start of last week, Democrats were sitting at 63% to take control. As of Monday morning, the Kalshi odds now show the Democrats sitting at 74%.

The Democrats need to gain four seats to flip the Senate, and many of the markets for top races support that outcome.

Kansas Senate Winner

Not many Senate races have been flipped around quite like the election in Kansas. Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton entered last week trading at just 40% implied probability, compared to 60% for Republican Roger Marshall. But midweek the race pulled to even.

In the last 24 hours, Hamilton has jumped up to 63% in the markets, while Marshall has fallen to 37%. The latest Kansas polls have Hamilton up 3 points, potentially winning in a state that voted Republican by at least 14% in the last two presidential elections.

Texas Senate Winner

This is a big race with $75 million in trading volume already. Democratic nominee James Talarico has gained 12% in the Kalshi odds over just the last week. He started last Monday at 64% and is now trading at 76%, favored over Republican nominee Ken Paxton.

Michigan Senate Winner

This has been the most newsworthy race nationally over the last 24 hours as Haley Stevens, a Democrat, came out in support of Republican nominee Mike Rogers on Sunday. Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed defeated Stevens in the primary and has seen a boost in the prediction markets since Steven’s endorsement of Rogers.

Over the last week, El-Sayed has improved 13% from 65% to 78%. Just in the last day, El-Sayed has hit his highest mark in the prediction markets implied probability since winning the primary.

Iowa Senate Winner

This race has really tightened up in the last week. Republican nominee Ashley Hinson entered last week at 59% and peaked at 60% in the prediction markets. But, as of Monday morning, she is in a dead heat with Democratic nominee Josh Turek at 50% odds for each. Latest polls put Turek just percentage points ahead in Iowa, but it looks like a very even race.

South Carolina Senate Winner

One race where Republicans are firmly ahead is in South Carolina, but the gap has tightened somewhat. Darline Graham sat at 76% in the Kalshi markets just a week ago against her Democratic opponent Annie Andrews. But Graham has now dipped to 69%, while Andrews has climbed to 31% in the markets. This could just be traders feeling like Andrews is a good longshot play, as she is only down less than 1% in the South Carolina polls.

Governor Races Shifting on Kalshi

There are some key battleground states that will be electing a new Governor on Tuesday. Here’s a closer look at some of the races that have seen high levels of movement in the markets over the last week.

Florida Governor Winner

A new Florida Governor will be elected on Tuesday. Republican nominee Byron Donalds has been the favorite in the Kalshi odds for this race, and was trading at 82% last week. That lead over David Jolly has taken a big hit. On Monday, Donalds is down to 61%, while Jolly has climbed to 39%. The climb for Jolly is somewhat surprising given he is down nearly 5 points in the Florida polls.

Texas Governor Winner

In the Lone Star State, Greg Abbott is looking for a fourth term as Governor. The Republican has been steadily ahead in the race and was up to 68% in the Kalshi midterm prediction markets last week. However, Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa has cut that lead down to 60% as of Monday. Hinojosa has reached 40%, as polls are showing a tighter race than originally expected.

Georgia Governor Winner

Keisha Lance Bottoms could become the first female Governor of Georgia if she defeats Republican nominee Rick Jackson. Lance Bottoms and Jackson were even in the Kalshi odds just two weeks ago, but she’s shot up to a comfortable odds lead at 68% on Monday. Jackson has fallen to 32%. Bottoms’ surge in the odds has come due to high early-voter turnout in Georgia. The polls are pretty evenly split for the race.