Odds Senate Votes to Remove Trump Climb to +2500 on Eve of Impeachment Trial
- The Senate is slated to begin the impeachment trial of US President Donald Trump on Tuesday, Jan. 21st
- The odds Trump is convicted and removed from office are now a lengthy +2500
- Those odds were as low as +500 just six weeks ago
The US Senate will begin Donald Trump’s impeachment trial on Tuesday. Unlike most trials, there’s very little drama, tension or uncertainty heading into this case.
No US President has ever been convicted of impeachment. There are significant odds that this situation isn’t about to change.
Ever since Trump was impeached by the US House of Representatives, the sportsbook has always been of the opinion that conviction was unlikely. The odds against a Trump conviction and removal from office opened at +500 on Dec. 6th. They had grown to +2000 within two weeks.
Today, the impeachment odds currently stand at +2500 in favor of no conviction from the Senate.
Odds Senate Votes to Remove Trump from Office
| Outcome | Dec. 6th Odds | Dec. 18th Odds | Current Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | -1000 | -5000 | -7500 |
| No | +500 | +2000 | +2500 |
Odds taken Jan. 20th
Based on the current makeup of the US Senate, that seems like an appropriate line, as well as a likely outcome.
Party Lines Are Drawn
The standard was set during the House vote on whether Trump would be impeached. Not a single Republican representative broke from the ranks and voted in favor of impeachment.
It didn’t matter then, because the Democrats control the House and held enough votes to make impeachment happen.
But it will matter big-time in the Senate trial.
In this chamber, the Republicans control the numbers. Of the 100 Senators, 53 of them have an R next to their name. Not one has suggested they might vote to convict Trump.
Voting for Impeachment Could Bring Trump’s Ire
Trump rules over his party like a mob boss. Speak out against the Don and you can expect retribution.
Senators fear a Trump tweet smear could be followed by an attempt to primary them for the nomination the next time they are up for re-election.
.@SenMikeLee
: "It is not acceptable for officials within the executive branch of government…to come in and tell us that we can't debate and discuss the appropriateness of military intervention against Iran. It's un-American. It's unconstitutional and it's wrong." pic.twitter.com/fVSE6b3EM0— CSPAN (@cspan) January 8, 2020
Take the example of Utah Senator Mike Lee. He was outspoken in his criticism of Trump’s briefing following the assassination of Iranian leader Qasem Soleimani.
The next day he quickly backpedaled. Lee now insisted that the worst briefing he’d experienced was with Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama about the Benghazi attack.
Might Any Break Ranks In Senate?
There’s a chance that Utah’s Mitt Romney, Alaska’s Susan Murkowski or Maine’s Susan Collins could be wild cards in the impeachment trial. But it’s a slim chance.
The best hope for Democrats is that they can get four Republican Senators to cross party lines and vote in favor of witnesses being called during the trial. It’s takes a simple majority of 51 Senators to make that happen.
Earlier this week, there were hints that Murkowski and Collins, both considered moderate Republicans, were leaning in that direction.
However, it takes a two-thirds majority to convict a President of impeachment. Twenty Republican Senators won’t vote to convict Trump.
Senate Will Just Say No To Impeachment
A Senate impeachment conviction of Trump simply isn’t going to happen. And it’s not only because Republican Senators cower in fear of Trump and his MAGA base.
Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is all about saving his own skin. He recognizes the Republican hold on the Senate is tenuous. Two-thirds of the chamber faces re-election in November.
Once the Senate provides @realDonaldTrump the opportunity to defend himself—which the House didn’t do—I’m confident when we get to final judgment, POTUS will be acquitted forever of @SpeakerPelosi’s bogus #impeachment charges. pic.twitter.com/4NrbpjwNrr
— Senator Ted Cruz (@SenTedCruz) January 20, 2020
That list of those who must earn another mandate later this year includes McConnell. McConnell won’t risk any signs of fracture or disunity within his party so close to the election.
Pick: No (+2500)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
