Who Will Leave Trump Cabinet Next? Trade on Prediction Markets

• After a terrible showing in the 2026 midterms, President Donald J. Trump will face a litany of challenges in his final two years in office; a key part of that is making changes to his cabinet
• Immediate speculation centered on Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth; however, there are lesser-known cabinet members who could go first
• Prediction markets offer options for users to make a pick and potentially profit on the next Trump cabinet member to leave

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With the midterm elections now in the rearview mirror, many are wondering: Who will leave the Trump Cabinet next?

Republicans got blown off the field in a midterm massacre, losing in Senate races in swing states like Michigan, Maine, Georgia, and Iowa, and former strongholds like Ohio, Texas, Kansas, and South Carolina. It even looks like the two remaining bright red states not to have been called — Mississippi and Alaska — will turn blue.

The GOP also lost governorships in Texas, South Carolina, and Ohio. The House of Representatives, which was expected beforehand, was even worse than they envisioned, with Democrats holding an overwhelming advantage.

Even the normally pugilistic and litigious Trump acknowledged what happened without claiming there was cheating or that the system was rigged.

That, however, does not mean the president will go down without a fight. He knows what’s coming in the next two years and needs to prepare for it as he tries to salvage what he can of his ambitious agenda.

Presidential administrations tend to make changes after midterm elections regardless of how well or poorly they go. Trump’s second term in office had been remarkably stable with few defections or firings. Now the upheaval is on its way.

Prediction markets are speculating on who will be next to go. Investors who have a strong opinion can weigh in and potentially profit from an accurate pick.

Who Will Leave Trump Cabinet Next? Trade Politics Events

Trading volume for this market is beyond $9.2 million already, growing substantially following the midterm elections.

While there are more recognizable names who are generating buzz, the cabinet members with the highest implied probability are Special Presidential Envoy for Special Missions Ric Grenell (50%), Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter (47%), and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (40%).

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Ric Grenell

It’s been obscured by the midterms, but Grenell was engulfed in a controversy with former Trump attorney Alina Habba Mildon over accusations that Grenell had committed financial misdeeds with money earmarked for the Kennedy Center and provided to him by Habba Mildon’s husband. Grenell denied the allegations.

Regardless of whether it’s true or not, Grenell is an easy pick to be removed from a post that rarely generates much attention anyway. A special envoy represents the administration. It’s an understated cabinet position to bring in a new face without much notice, but serving as a signal that Trump is bringing in new voices, as performative as it may be. It won’t generate buzz, but this move might be based on the accusations against Grenell and Trump’s desire to make a change than due to any collateral concerns.

Trent McCotter

McCotter is the acting Deputy Attorney General who has something of an interesting biography. A baseball stats maven, his research as a teen corrected a mistake in Babe Ruth’s RBI total in 1926.

A veteran of Trump’s two terms in the Oval Office, he’s served in a background legal role in the Department of Justice Civil Rights Division in Trump’s first term. In his new role as Deputy AG, he’s been in the middle of some controversial actions, including approving the raid on Rep. Ilhan Omar’s home investigating alleged immigration fraud and in pursuing criminal charges against former FBI director James Comey.

It’s unlikely that even a minuscule fraction of those picking McCotter as the next to go in Trump’s pending purge would know who he is, what he does, or why he does it. Trump himself might need a reminder of who he is.

McCotter being removed would be a perfunctory maneuver that is probably not worth the aggravation for Trump as he plots his next steps.

Pete Hegseth

Hegseth is a wedge issue for Trump as he reconciles the Election Day disaster and calls for one of his key and most loyal cabinet members to be axed. The soon-to-be empowered Democrats have vowed to investigate and possibly impeach Hegseth. The word “impeachment” is likely to set Trump off because he feels as if he was unfairly impeached twice in his first term, and there is a lingering fear that they will try it again and be precariously close to the 67 votes needed to convict him in the Senate to kick him out of office if enough Senate Republicans are sufficiently angry at Trump for how he’s treated members of his own party to try and get some form of revenge on him.

This would be an obviously bad idea from the Democrats’ perspective because it would incite blowback for wasting time on pettiness, and it would result in President JD Vance giving the VP a head start on running in 2028, with voters getting accustomed to the idea of a President Vance in the first place.

That doesn’t mean they won’t do it.

There was talk that Trump was kicking around potential replacements and asking those close to him if he should remove Hegseth, but he gave the Defense Secretary his support and said he wasn’t going to fire him. Trump’s statements are usually to be taken with a bucket of salt, but he’s also obstinate, and with the Democrats set to take control of Congress, he’s more likely to be combative and not back down. If he fires Hegseth, that’s exactly what it would look like.

Of course, Hegseth could leave on his own. But that too is hard to see happening unless Trump asks him to resign.

Which he won’t.

Takeaway: So, who will leave Trump’s Cabinet next? The easy pick among these three names is Grenell.