Skip to content

Ad Disclosure

2024 NASCAR at Michigan Odds, Predictions & Longshot Picks (Sunday, Aug. 18)

Brady Trettenero

By Brady Trettenero in Racing

Published:


Aug 6, 2023; Brooklyn, Michigan, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Justin Haley (31) during the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports
  • NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 takes place this Sunday at Michigan International Speedway
  • Denny Hamlin leads the pack in the NASCAR Michigan odds, but Ford’s dominance at the track offers better value
  • Below, find NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 predictions, odds, and longshot picks

The 2024 FireKeepers Casino 400 is just around the corner, and it’s shaping up to be must-see TV. Michigan International Speedway will host the event on August 18, 2024, with the action kicking off at 2:30 p.m. ET on USA Network.

As the Cup Series season winds down, every point matters, and drivers will be fighting tooth and nail to secure their spot in the playoffs. We’ve made NASCAR at Michigan predictions and identified value longshots to help you win some cash on Sunday

Here’s a look at the latest odds for the FireKeepers Casino 400 race winner, courtesy of BetMGM:

NASCAR at Michigan Odds

Driver Odds
Denny Hamlin +550
Kyle Larson +600
Ryan Blaney +800
Tyler Reddick +800
Brad Keselowski +800
Christopher Bell +850
Martin Truex Jr. +900
Chase Elliott +1200
William Byron +1300
Chris Buescher +1400
Joey Logano +1600
Ty Gibbs +2000
Bubba Wallace +2200
Alex Bowman +3000
Ross Chastain +3000
Kyle Busch +3500

Odds as of August 16th, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Claim the BetMGM bonus code to make a bet on Sunday’s race.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK
Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets + a Second Chance TD Cash Back

21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (US); 1-800-327-5050 (MA); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. See BetMGM.com for Terms. US promotional offers not available in MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.
LOCK IN PROMO
CODE: DIME1500
CODE: DIME1500
SIGNUP BONUS
GET $1,500
BACK

+ 2ND CHANCE TD CASH BACK

BET NOW

Denny Hamlin leads the pack at +550, which translates to an implied probability of 15.4%. But as any seasoned NASCAR bettor knows, the favorite doesn’t always come out on top.

Let’s dive into some predictions and see where the smart money lies for the FireKeepers 400.

NASCAR Michigan Predictions

It’s hard to bet against Denny Hamlin this weekend. The man knows how to get it done at Michigan, with six straight finishes of sixth or better, including a pair of third-place runs. However, we can’t ignore Ford’s dominance at this track.

The Blue Oval has been absolutely crushing it here, with nine straight victories. That’s why our top pick is a Ford to win at +210. With so much talent behind the wheel and a track that clearly suits their machines, backing Ford at plus-money is the smart play.

You’ve got Ryan Blaney (+800), the reigning Cup Series champ who’s got a Michigan win under his belt. There’s Brad Keselowski (+800), the hometown hero who knows this track like the back of his hand. And don’t forget about Joey Logano (+1600), who’s always a threat on race day.

With so much talent behind the wheel and a track that clearly suits their machines, we don’t see a reason to buck the trend. Sure, Hamlin’s a great driver, and we wouldn’t be shocked to see him in Victory Lane. But at +550, the odds just don’t justify the bet when you’ve got so much value on the Ford side of things.

NASCAR at Michigan Best Bet

  • Ford to Win (+210 at MGM)

Other NASCAR Michigan Best Bets

In terms of other bets we like for the FireKeeprs Casino 400, Kyle Larson for top-five finish at -110 is solid value. Larson has three Michigan wins to his name and has been on fire at high-speed tracks this season.

Larson is also available at +375 right now in the NASCAR Cup Series odds, which is another bet to consider. Larson won in 2021 and will look to add another regular-season victory to his 2024 resume before the action really heats up.

Don’t sleep on Tyler Reddick (+800) this weekend, either. Sure, his Michigan track record is a bit spotty, but the man’s been on a tear lately with six straight top-six finishes. His Toyota is fast, and at +115 for a top-five, he’s another value pick.

NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 Best Bets:

  • Kyle Larson top-five finish (-110 at DK)
  • Tyler Reddick top-five finish (+115 at DK)

NASCAR Michigan Longshots

If you’re hunting for a bigger payday, take a stab at Erik Jones for a top-10 finish at +400. The Michigan native knows this track like the back of his hand and has finished better than 18th in five of his last six races here.

Fresh off a solid run at Pocono and a top-10 at Kansas, Jones is riding high after inking a multi-year extension with Legacy Motor Club. I think his chance of finishing inside the top-10 should be much higher than the implied probability of 20%.

YouTube video

Bubba Wallace at +2500 to win is another intriguing longshot. He’s shown he can hang at tracks like Michigan, snagging a second-place finish here in 2022 and a win at Kansas. Wallace has been on a hot streak with top-fives at Pocono and Indy, so he might just be peaking at the perfect time.

Finally, don’t overlook Chris Buescher at +275 for a top-five. The man’s the defending race winner and his team, RFK Racing, knows how to get the job done at Michigan. Buescher’s been impressive at similar tracks this year, with a fifth at Atlanta and a third at Sonoma.

NASCAR at Michigan Longshot Picks:

  • Erik Jones top-10 finish (+400 at DK & FD)
  • Bubba Wallace to win (+2500 at FD)
  • Chris Buescher top-five finish (+275 at Bet365)

 

Brady Trettenero
Brady Trettenero

Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor

Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

Entertainment NFL NHL NCAAF

Recommended Reading


sports betting dime logo

Unfiltered sports betting coverage every fan needs — squeezed into your inbox before dinner.

Sign Up Now!

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, to receive updates and offers and confirm you are 21+ and have never self excluded from betting or gambling. Unsubscribe at any time. Please gamble responsibly. Need help? 1-800-GAMBLER