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FireKeepers Casino 400 Odds & Picks

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Updated Aug 1, 2023 · 7:46 PM PDT

NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick stands with family
Jul 23, 2023; Long Pond, Pennsylvania, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick stands with his wife DeLana Harvick and son Keelan and daughter Piper prior to the HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports
  • NASCAR travels to Brooklyn, Michigan, for the Firekeepers Casino 400 set to run on Sunday, August 6th, 2023
  • The contending favorites include Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin
  • Below are the Firekeepers Casino 400 predictions, picks, and betting odds ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race

NASCAR rolls up to Michigan International Speedway for the 23rd race of the 2023 season. The two-mile oval generates some incredibly high-speed and quality racing. The race distance totals 400 miles (200 laps). Is this the best chance for Kevin Harvick to win before the playoffs?

This weekend’s race is one week after the Cook Out 400 where Chris Buescher crashed the party and won for the first time this season.

The table below lists the complete slate of NASCAR Cup Series odds for the Firekeepers Casino 400 from Michigan (win, podium finish, and top-five finish). Under the table, find the Loudon predictions and best bets for this weekend’s NASCAR action.

NASCAR Firekeepers Casino 400 Odds

Driver Odds to Win Podium Finish Odds  Top Five Odds
Denny Hamlin +650 +185 -110
Kyle Larson +700 +200 EVEN
William Byron +750 +210 +105
Martin Truex Jr. +750 +210 +105
Kyle Busch +750 +210 +105
Kevin Harvick +850 +240 +120
Ryan Blaney +1000 +285 +140
Tyler Reddick +1200 +330 +165
Christopher Bell +1200 +330 +165
Joey Logano +1400 +400 +200
Chase Elliott +1500 +400 +200
Bubba Wallace +1500 +400 +200
Ross Chastain +1800 +500 +250
Brad Keselowski +2200 +600 +300
Ty Gibbs +2500 +700 +350
Alex Bowman +4000 +1000 +500
Chris Buescher +4000 +1100 +550
Daniel Suarez +6000 +1400 +700
Aric Almirola +9000 +2200 +1100
Erik Jones +9000 +2200 +1100

Denny Hamlin sits at +650 again but is the favorite this week. Kyle Larson comes in behind him at +700. Martin Truex Jr. is in the +700 to +750 range.  Michigan is one of those strange tracks where Ford has a mystical effect later in races. It’s hard to explain and even last year, that happened again. Kevin Harvick is a unicorn late on this track.

NASCAR drivers rumble along this oval with a 40-75-85 stage lap setup when the flag drops. This Sunday afternoon race begins after 2:30 pm ET on USA.



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Odds as of August 1st at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings promo code to bet on NASCAR Firekeepers Casino 400. Bettors in the Bluegrass State should check out Kentucky Sports Betting

The Ford Cars Have Ruled Irish Hills

So, the Ford cars have had a considerable amount of “luck of the Irish.” Overall, Ford has taken the last four races at Michigan International Speedway. One of those wins was by Ryan Blaney but three were from Kevin Harvick. Honestly, the craziest aspect of this is how good Harvick has been late in these races. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver has led 30.7% of the laps. Harvick’s one time he did not win in this span featured a likely top five before problems arose.

So, Caesars Sportsbook has Harvick at +850 like DraftKings and Blaney is +1100. Seven drivers rest at +1000 or shorter including Byron, Hamlin, Busch, and Larson.. It is intriguing that Toyota was so quick early last year then Ford took over again late. Just when it looked like Denny Hamlin might run away with things, Harvick was again able to find a way to cross the checkered line in first place.

Firekeepers Casino 400 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2022 Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing Bubba Wallace – 23XI Racing Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin (tied)
2021 Ryan Blaney – Team Penske Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports Racing
2020 Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing Chris Buescher– Roush Fenway Racing Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing
2019 Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing Brad Keselowski – Team Penske Brad Keselowski – Team Penske
2018 Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing Denny Hamlin– Joe Gibbs Racing Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing

This race has seen some unusual moments and “big collector” accidents. Last year, seven cautions for 36 laps was not as significant as the 15 lead changes among ten drivers. That surprised some pundits and fans alike.

What Can Toyota or Chevy Do To Stop The Late Ford Dominance?

NASCAR Cup Series odds come in with five drivers at +750 or better. Martin Truex Jr. tops the favorites at +400. After that, Denny Hamlin is right behind Truex Jr. on Caesars but Larson is second on DraftKings. The Team Penske Fords have seen their series numbers lengthen out to +1200.

Michigan International Speedway is a high-speed centrifuge of a track. It features low-wear and an intermediate-like feel. Think of Kansas and maybe Auto Club when considering drivers. Do note that drivers like Harvick and Hamlin flourish on tracks like this.

Saturday qualifying begins at 1:20 pm ET. Expect good track conditions on Saturday but watch the weather for Sunday. One never knows. Temperatures are expected to be near 80 with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Firekeepers Casino 400 Predictions & Picks

So, Sunday afternoon may go back to the wet. Again, the weather can always change. It will be fun to see if the Toyota cars can figure out the late portion of the race and win this time.

Can Toyota surprise Ford like Ford err Buescher stunned Toyota?

Practice and qualifying on Saturday may be a little different compared to Sunday. Cloud cover could play a role in qualifying and then Sunday is a total question mark. With three races until the chase, expecting the unexpected might not be a bad plan.

Here are our best bets:

  • Top Pick: Kevin Harvick to Win (+850)
  • Other Contenders: Denny Hamlin (+650), Bubba Wallace (+1500), Tyler Reddick (+1200), Ryan Blaney (+1100 – Caesars)
  • Longshots:  Chase Briscoe (+20000), Alex Bowman (+4000)


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