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Formula 1 2021 Turkish Grand Prix Odds and Picks

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in Racing

Oct 7, 2021 · 10:18 AM PDT

Turkish Grand Prix odds
Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton of Britain, second right, celebrates on the podium after winning the race alongside second place Red Bull's Max Verstappen and third place Ferrari's Carlos Sainz Jr. during the Russian Formula One Grand Prix at the Sochi Autodrom circuit, in Sochi, Russia, Sunday, Sept. 26, 2021. (Yuri Kochetkov/Pool Photo via AP)
  • Following a stellar performance in Russia, Max Verstappen has emerged as the clear favorite to win this weekend’s 2021 Turkish Grand Prix
  • Defending champion Lewis Hamilton is pegged as the second favorite, but could face a grid penalty if Mercedes elects to move forward with engine upgrades
  • We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends ahead of Sunday morning’s running of the Turkish Grand Prix at Intercity Istanbul Park

Max Verstappen will be looking to reclaim top spot in the Formula 1 Drivers Standings when he hits the track on Sunday as a -125 favorite in the Turkish Grand Prix odds. Verstappen is coming off an epic performance at last month’s Russian Grand Prix, where he stormed to a second-place finish after starting from the back of the pack. However, with Lewis Hamilton driving to his 100th career F1 win at Sochi, Verstappen now finds himself trailing the defending champion by two points in the standings. Hamilton is the second betting favorite in the Turkish Grand Prix odds at +145.

Here’s a look at all the odds and trends ahead lights out at the 2021 Turkish Grand Prix at Intercity Istanbul Park on Sunday morning at 8:00 AM ET.

2021 Turkish Grand Prix Odds

Driver Odds to Win Odds to Finish Top Three Odds to Finish Top Six Odds to Finish Top 10
Max Verstappen -125 -360 -450 -800
Lewis Hamilton +145 -280 -450 -800
Valtteri Bottas +1600 -150 -360 -500
Sergio Perez +2000 +165 -280 -450
Lando Norris +3500 +290 -250 -450
Charles Leclerc +3500 +290 -225 -450
Daniel Ricciardo +6500 +750 +105 -330
Carlos Sainz Jr. +6500 +700 -140 -400
George Russell +10000 +2500 +1000 +135
Pierre Gasly +15000 +1600 +165 -250
Sebastian Vettel +25000 +1800 +330 -110
Fernando Alonso +25000 +1800 +225 -250
Esteban Ocon +25000 +750 +550 -150
Lance Stroll +30000 +3500 +650 +125
Yuki Tsunoda +50000 +2000 +2000 +225
Antonio Giovinazzi +50000 +13000 +2000 +250
Kimi Raikkonen +50000 +15000 +3500 +300
Nicholas Latifi +80000 +15000 +6500 +750
Mick Schumacher +80000 +15000 +8000 +1400
Nikita Mazepin +80000 +25000 +13000 +1600

Odds as of October 7 at DraftKings

Verstappen’s Odds Benefiting from Engine Upgrade

Faced with a grid penalty that would have resulted in Max Verstappen starting no better than fourth on the grid at the Russian Grand Prix, Red Bull Racing elected to bite the bullet and move forward with an engine change that forced the 23-year-old to start from the back of the pack. The move paid dividends for Verstappen, who wasted no time making up for lost ground on his way to an impressive second-place finish.

That marked Verstappen’s 11th trip to the podium so far this season, but also extended the see-saw battle between him and Lewis Hamilton. With the duo combining to claim the checkered flag in 12 of 15 races so far this season, the two drivers have taken turns leading the Drivers Standings. But with top two finishes in 11 of the 12 races he has completed, Verstappen maintains a well-deserved perch atop the odds to win this year’s F1 world championship as a short -153 bet.

However, Verstappen has work to do to reclaim the lead in Istanbul, where he turned in a disappointing sixth-place finish last season. The Red Bull driver’s poor showing at this event a year ago came largely due to a poor start after claim a spot in the front row in qualifying. Barring any unforeseen technical issues, that should not be a concern this time around.

Possible Upgrades Diminish Hamilton’s Betting Value

The success of Red Bull’s recent upgrades have left Mercedes team management facing a quandary. While Lewis Hamilton is coming off a historic win in Sochi, and his lame-duck teammate Valtteri Bottas surging to a fifth-place finish after also starting from the back due to an engine upgrade, reports indicate that an engine change might also be in store this weekend for the reigning champion.

If that occurs, it will be Hamilton’s turn to start at the back of the pack, which would greatly diminish his value as a +145 second favorite in the Turkish Grand Prix odds. However, it likely opens the door for a pair of drivers who have turned in recent steady results.

Turkish Grand Prix Recent Winners

Year Driver Margin of Victory Pole Position Fastest Lap
2020 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 8.807 sec Lance Stroll – Racing Point Lando Norris – McLaren
2011 Sebastian Vettel – Red Bull 8.807 sec Sebastian Vettel – Red Bull Mark Webber – Red Bull
2010 Lewis Hamilton – McLaren-Mercedes 2.645 sec Mark Webber – Red Bull Vitaly Petrov – Renault
2009 Jenson Button – Brawn-Mercedes 6.714 sec Sebastian Vettel – Red Bull Jenson Button – Brawn-Mercedes
2008 Felipe Massa – Ferrari 3.779 sec Felipe Massa – Ferrari Kimi Raikkonen – Ferrari
2007 Felipe Massa – Ferrari 2.275 sec Felipe Massa – Ferrari Kimi Raikkonen – Ferrari
2006 Felipe Massa – Ferrari 5.575 sec Felipe Massa – Ferrari Michael Schumacher – Ferrari
2005 Kimi Raikkonen – McLaren-Mercedes 18.609 sec Kimi Raikkonen – McLaren-Mercedes Juan Pablo Montoya – McLaren-Mercedes</td

Bottas, Norris Offer Value on Betting Line

Destined to leave Mercedes at the end of this season, Bottas has largely run his own races in recent weeks, and produced steady results. In addition to his charge to fifth place in Sochi, the veteran Finn stormed to third-place finishes in both the Netherland and Italy and offers enormous value as -150 wager to finish among the top three. He is also likely to emerge as Verstappen’s top rival this weekend, making him worthy of a wager as a +1600 bet to claim the checkered flag.

Snakebitten in each of his past two outings, McLaren’s Lando Norris is overdue for a breakthrough as the F1 circuit moves to Istanbul. Norris appeared to be destined for a win in Sochi before heavy rains and his team’s decision to forego a late tire changed resulted in his fall to seventh place. That disappointment came in the wake of the 21-year-old’s second-place finish behind teammate Daniel Ricciardo in Italy. However, with 14 finishes in the points, Norris is arguably this season’s most consistent driver and should be on all shopping lists as a +290 bet to reach the podium for the fifth time this season.

The Picks: Max Verstappen to win (-150); Valtteri Bottas top three (-150); Lando Norris top three (+290)

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