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NASCAR 2019 TicketGuardian 500 Odds & Picks: Hamlin Finishes Top 10

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Racing

Mar 6, 2019 · 12:57 PM PST

Kevin Harvick #4 NASCAR
The NASCAR series shifts to ISM in Phoenix where Kevin Harvick is favored. Photo by Chad Sparkes (flickr).
  • The 2019 NASCAR 2019 TicketGuardian 500 is scheduled for March 10th at 3:30 pm EST
  • This will be the first of two races at Phoenix Raceway in Arizona
  • Kyle Busch won the fall race at this track last year while Kevin Harvick won the spring race

After Joey Logano picked up the win in Las Vegas, the NASCAR Monster Energy series shifts gears to Phoenix Raceway for the TicketGuardian 500. The race will get underway on Sunday, March 10th, at 3:30 p.m. ET. Let’s take a closer look at the race and evaluate some picks.

2019 TicketGuardian 500 Odds

Driver 2019 NASCAR TicketGuardian 500 Odds
Kevin Harvick +275
Kyle Busch +375
Brad Keselowski +750
Joey Logano +850
Chase Elliott +1150
Martin Truex Jr. +1150
Denny Hamlin +1650
Kyle Larson +1950
Aric Almirola +2250
Erik Jones +2750
Clint Bowyer +2750
Kurt Busch +3150
Ryan Blaney +3300
Alex Bowman +5500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +5500

Odds taken 03/06/19.

Harvick a Heavy Favorite for a Reason

One thing that’s really working in Harvick’s favorite this week is his history here. In addition to his five wins at this event, Harvick has never finished worse than sixth in his last 11 appearances at the ISM Raceway. Overall, Harvick has won a total of nine races at this track.

Harvick also rolls in with some momentum as he’s finished no worse than fifth in five of his last six races overall. If you’re looking at props in terms of Top 5 or Top 10, Harvick looks like a solid bet in those categories as well as a bet for outright win.

Busch to Push Harvick

There are two drivers inside of 7/1 for this race: Harvick and Busch. If there is one driver that might be worth betting to challenge Harvick this week it’s probably Busch. In the two races last year, Busch won in November and placed second in March. He has finished fourth or better in six of his last seven starts here.

In terms of his current form, Busch has raced well. After all, he could have easily won any of the three races so far this season. He has finished sixth or better in each of his last five races overall dating back to last year. The driver of the No. 18 Toyota should push for the win here.

Hamlin for a Top 10

Hamlin hasn’t exactly blown us away since his Daytona 500 win. However, after a couple of forgettable performances he could be primed to bounce back with a strong performance this week.

Hamlin has an average finish of 5.6 in his last three appearances at this event. He’s also finished in the Top 10 in six of his last nine appearances at this track. His two results here last year were 13th and fourth. With 14 Top 10’s at ISM in his 25 starts, he might be worth a flier with that prop.

Avoid Elliott

Elliott is coming off a top-10 finish and there is some buzz that he could be primed to build on it this weekend in Arizona. After all, Elliott has finished in the Top 10 in eight of his last 12 races overall.

At the same time, I’m not thrilled with betting him to win races outright. He has just one win in his last 11 outings. At ISM, he finished third in March last year and second in November of 2017, but he’s finished eighth or worse in his other four appearances. I’ll pass on him this week.

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