NASCAR DFS Picks – Hollywood Casino 400 Projections, Lineup & Strategy

• DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway
• Three premium dominators anchor an aggressive stars-and-scrubs build, funded by Alex Bowman’s place-differential upside from 33rd
• Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Hollywood Casino 400

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One week after Bristol forced us to handicap a Cup Series race without practice or qualifying, Kansas Speedway looked at the arrangement and ordered the same package.

Rain canceled both sessions for the second consecutive weekend, sending NASCAR back to its metric to establish the starting lineup. Joey Logano received the pole, with Kyle Larson second and Christopher Bell third.

DFS players usually spend Saturday comparing long-run averages, tire falloff and lap-by-lap speed. Instead, we have spent two straight weekends watching radar and waiting for a spreadsheet to tell us where everyone will start.

The good news is that Kansas gives us considerably more useful history than most tracks. The Cup Series raced here earlier this season, and the current car has produced multiple events with passing, changing lanes and enough long green-flag runs for the strongest cars to separate themselves.

We also have two independent projections and a 17-race comparable-track sample. That should be enough information to construct a lineup, or at least enough to make our eventual mistakes feel thoroughly researched.

The metric created several obvious place-differential opportunities, but our lineup takes a more aggressive approach at the top. Three premium drivers will compete for the same pool of fastest laps and laps led, while the bottom half attempts to create value without requiring anyone to perform a miracle.

It is a stars-and-scrubs lineup in the purest sense. The stars are expensive, the scrubs are uncomfortable and DraftKings has once again declined our request for a larger salary cap.

The Hollywood Casino 400 begins Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network and HBO.

Hollywood Casino 400 DFS Lineup

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Build your Hollywood Casino 400 NASCAR DFS lineup at the best DFS apps before the green flag drops at Kansas.

Hollywood Casino 400 Projections

Kyle Larson ($11,000) | Starting Position: 2nd

Larson is the most expensive driver in the lineup, ranks first in my overall power ratings and owns the model’s second-best projected finish at 3.97.

Steve’s model projects him to finish 4.60, giving us strong agreement that he should remain near the front throughout the afternoon.

The raw comparable-track results support that confidence. Larson produced a 9.95 average running position, 21.47 fastest laps and 49.06 laps led per race across the 17-race sample. He also completed more than 84% of those laps inside the top 15.

His recent Kansas performances provide even more ceiling.

Larson won the spring 2025 race after leading 221 of 267 laps. He returned that fall and finished sixth, then led another 78 laps before finishing second here earlier this season.

Starting second limits the place-differential opportunity, but Larson has access to clean air and enough Kansas speed to replace those missing points with fastest laps and laps led.

At $11,000, he occupies a significant portion of the salary cap. Dominator points are expected with the purchase.

Denny Hamlin ($10,500) | Starting Position: 6th

Both models place Hamlin firmly inside the top five.

My model projects him to finish 3.63, while Steve lands at 4.82. Starting sixth gives Hamlin modest place-differential upside before we account for anything he might collect at the front.

His raw comparable-track results include a 10.04 average running position, 24.88 fastest laps and 43.24 laps led per race. He also completed more than 82% of his laps inside the top 15.

Hamlin also brings an excellent Kansas ceiling.

He led 159 laps and finished second in the fall 2025 race. Earlier this season, he led 131 laps and finished fourth.

Hamlin can score through finishing position, place differential, fastest laps and time at the front. DraftKings generally rewards drivers who refuse to choose only one method.

There's no place like @kansasspeedway.

The Chase rolls through the Heartland. pic.twitter.com/EMcXtmmn1q

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 22, 2026

Christopher Bell ($10,200) | Starting Position: 3rd

Bell completes our expensive three-driver attack.

My model projects him to finish 6.52. Steve is even more optimistic at 5.13, placing Bell directly behind Larson and Hamlin in his overall order.

The challenge comes from Bell’s starting position. He begins third, leaving little room for positive place differential and creating some risk if he slides backward.

His ability to produce dominator points makes the investment worthwhile.

Across the 17 raw comparable-track races, Bell averaged 16.94 fastest laps and 14.41 laps led. He recorded a 13.06 average running position and completed nearly 72% of his laps inside the top 15.

He finished second and third in the two 2025 Kansas races. His 20th-place result here earlier this season was much worse than the performance. Bell posted a 6.2 average running position, led 47 laps and completed 262 of 273 laps inside the top 15.

The car spent the afternoon near the front. The finishing position left without it.

Using Larson, Hamlin and Bell together creates some competition for the same dominator points. Kansas offers 267 laps, providing enough scoring opportunities for more than one driver to contribute. The lineup is betting that this trio controls most of them.

Alex Bowman ($7,300) | Starting Position: 33rd

Bowman is the easiest selection in the lineup.

My model projects him to finish 16.97. Steve’s model is considerably more optimistic at 13.38.

Those projections create between 16 and 20 positions of potential place differential before adding the points from Bowman’s finishing position.

Kansas has already produced this exact type of recovery.

Bowman started 33rd here earlier this season and finished 18th. In the spring 2025 race, he started 21st, recorded a 6.6 average running position and finished fifth.

Across the 15 raw comparable-track races in his sample, Bowman owns an 18.32 average running position and has completed nearly 49% of his laps inside the top 15. Those results are comfortably stronger than his starting position.

The $7,300 salary does not fully reflect the opportunity created by starting 33rd in Hendrick Motorsports equipment.

A finish near my projection would make Bowman useful. Steve’s projection would place him among the strongest point-per-dollar plays on the slate.

Zane Smith ($5,900) | Starting Position: 28th

Smith is where the two models stop cooperating.

My model projects him to finish 28.36, essentially holding his starting position. It labels his recent form as ice cold and ranks him 24th in the power ratings.

Steve sees considerably more upside, projecting Smith to finish 18.41.

That creates the largest disagreement between the systems among our six drivers. The optimistic version produces approximately 10 place-differential points. The conservative version leaves us hoping Smith finishes the race and avoids moving backward.

His raw comparable-track results lean closer to Steve’s projection. Smith owns a 19.39 average running position across 17 races and has completed more than 36% of his laps inside the top 15.

He also finished 16th at Kansas in the spring of 2025 after starting 18th. His two appearances since then ended 31st and 32nd, so the track history has thoughtfully supplied evidence for both sides of the argument.

At $5,900, Smith opens the salary required to roster three legitimate dominator candidates and Bowman. A finish in the low-to-mid 20s would keep the arrangement functional. Steve’s projection supplies the potential for considerably more.

If this is just the beginning, what are we in for at @kansasspeedway? pic.twitter.com/pWSxqQnoTq

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 24, 2026

Ty Dillon ($4,700) | Starting Position: 36th

DraftKings requires six drivers, and it refuses to accept five names accompanied by a heartfelt explanation.

That brings us to Ty Dillon.

Dillon starts last, removing the possibility of negative place-differential points. Every position he gains becomes a small contribution toward making the expensive portion of the lineup work.

My model projects Dillon to finish 34.34. Steve is considerably more optimistic at 28.36, which would give us nearly eight positions of place differential from the cheapest driver in the field.

Neither projection creates visions of a surprise trip to Victory Lane, but the $4,700 salary was probably our first clue.

There is at least one useful Kansas result in the recent sample. Dillon started 33rd in the fall 2025 race and finished 13th, gaining 20 positions.

The broader results are far less attractive. Dillon’s raw comparable-track average running position is 27.58, and he has completed slightly more than 7% of his laps inside the top 15.

Dillon is a salary-saving selection rather than a statistical endorsement. Starting 36th provides a clean path to modest place differential, and a finish near Steve’s projection would make the play successful.

Sometimes DFS requires embracing discomfort. At $4,700, Dillon provides just that at a very reasonable price.

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