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NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Odds and Picks

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Oct 21, 2021 · 6:53 AM PDT

Hollywood Casino 400
Kyle Busch (18) smiles prior to a NASCAR Cup Series auto racing race at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Monday, Oct. 11, 2021, in Concord, N.C. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)
  • Kyle Larson is the favorite this week at the Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday, October 24th, 2021
  • The “Round Of 8” continues from the Kansas Motor Speedway 
  • We’ve got you covered with all the NASCAR odds and trends ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race at Kansas

NASCAR heads to Kansas for the Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday afternoon. This is after the race at Texas, where Kyle Larson turned an alternator problem into his seventh win of the season. The Hollywood Casino 400 odds favor Kyle Larson at +240. However, some other NASCAR betting choices are there this week at Kansas as the Round of 8 continues.

Let’s look at the Hollywood Casino 400 odds from the Kansas Motor Speedway and figure out which drivers are the best bets.

Hollywood Casino 400 Odds

Driver Odds to Win Odds to Finish Top Three Odds to Finish Top Five
Kyle Larson +240 -145 -330
Denny Hamlin +550 +160 -145
Kyle Busch +600 +170 -125
Chase Elliott +800 +230 -110
William Byron +900 +260 +110
Ryan Blaney +1000 +290 +120
Martin Truex Jr. +1100 +310 +140
Brad Keselowski +1400 +400 +175
Joey Logano +1600 +450 +200
Kevin Harvick +1800 +500 +230
Tyler Reddick +2200 +650 +250
Alex Bowman +3000 +850 +350
Christopher Bell +3000 +850 +350
Kurt Busch +4500 +1300 +550
Matt DiBenedetto +6000 +1700 +750
Austin Dillon +6000 +1700 +750
Aric Almirola +8000 +2200 +1000
Ross Chastain +8000 +2200 +1000
Daniel Suarez +10000 +3000 +1300

Odds as of October 21st at DraftKings

Kyle Larson Favored in Hollywood Casino 400 Odds

NASCAR drivers will run on the 1,50-mile Kansas Motor Speedway when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning around 3:00 PM EST.

At Fort Worth, Kyle Larson won the race cementing his spot in the Championship Four on November 7th at Phoenix.

Kyle Larson benefits from the metrics, but also the idea that he won last week so oddsmakers have to consider him the favorite this week as a reflex. Larson starts from the pole with Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski right behind him. Kyle Busch starts fourth on Sunday and is the third betting choice at +600 in the NASCAR odds.

Now, as always, the first eight spots are determined with the order of the playoffs in mind. Kyle Larson is seventh at Kansas since 2018 with an average finish of 9.6. That does include a second-best driver rating of 112 and the highest lap lead percentage (21.72%),

Kyle Larson will do almost anything to win a race, as seen above. The idea that he takes it easy sounds crazy. Safe is death.

Denny Hamlin starts second based on metrics and is the second betting favorite at +550 in the Hollywood Casino 400 odds. Six drivers have odds of +1000 or shorter.

The second race of this three-race trilogy carries features more intermediate track racing on the tri-oval. After that, there is  Martinsville (a short-track) to determine the Championship Four.

Hollywood Casino 400 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2020 Joey Logano — Team Penske Chase Elliott – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing
2019 Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing Daniel Hemric – Richard Childress Racing Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing
2018 Chase Elliott – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Joey Logano — Team Penske Joey Logano — Team Penske
2017 Martin Truex Jr. – Furniture Row Racing Martin Truex Jr. – Furniture Row Racing Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing
2016 Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing Matt Kenseth – Joe Gibbs Racing Matt Kenseth – Joe Gibbs Racing

The race is normally 267 laps, but overtime has only occurred twice since 2012. 2007 featured a rain-shortened version of the race at 210 laps.

Kyle Busch Betting Analysis at Hollywood Casino 400

Sports bettors have a solid window of history when it comes to the Kansas track. Yes, Kyle Busch is doing alright in the NASCAR Cup Series odds.

The better news for the younger Busch is that he just has to do well at Kansas. However, he could very well win the Hollywood Casino 400. His average finish of 8.86 does include a win in the Spring race and five top-ten results. His speed intervals have been excellent, and he enjoys a 107.4 driver rating (third overall).

So, does one go with the younger Busch? It is an excellent question. This depends on where one is betting. Look around for NASCAR odds and not just on DraftKings. Next to Larson, Busch has tested well at intervals and handles this low-maintenance package better than many of the dominators. If he keeps it on the track and doesn’t slam a wall then lookout.

Is Denny Hamlin a Longshot Candidate?

Denny Hamlin has three top-ten finishes in his last six Kansas races but has won twice, and yet only has a driver rating of 102.7. The No. 11 car has led 14.6% of the laps raced in that span as well.

Furthermore, Hamlin starts down in the sixth position on Sunday afternoon. His average finish of 9.14 is also noteworthy, along with his ability to find speed later in runs when it counts. See those two wins for example.

The possibilities this weekend are endless for Sunday and do watch the weather in case. Scattered thunderstorms later in the day could impact the race.

Finally, here are our best bets for the Hollywood Casino 400:

  • Top Pick: Kyle Busch to win (+600 to +750)
  • Medium Shots: Ryan Blaney (+1000), Joey Logano (+1600)
  • Longshot: Matt DiBenedetto (+6000)
  • Kyle Busch Top 3 (+170), Kevin Harvick Top 5 (+230), Matt DiBenedetto Top 5 (+750)
  • More picks are always on social media @ChrisWasselDFS
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