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NASCAR Xfinity 500 Odds, Predictions and Picks

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Oct 28, 2021 · 7:48 AM PDT

NASCAR Xfinity 500
Martin Truex Jr., celebrates winning the NASCAR Cup series auto race in Richmond, Va. Truex is in third place in the NASCAR playoff standings heading into Sunday's race at Fort Worth, Texas. (AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)
  • Martin Truex Jr. is the favorite this week at the Xfinity 500 on Sunday, October 31st, 2021
  • The “Round Of 8” concludes from the Martinsville Speedway 
  • We’ve got you covered with all the NASCAR odds and trends ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race at Kansas

NASCAR heads to Martinsville, Virginia for the Xfinity 500 on Sunday afternoon. This is after the race at Kansas, where Kyle Larson held everyone off again for his ninth win of the season. The Xfinity 500 odds favor Martin Truex Jr. at +450. However, some other NASCAR betting choices are there this week at Martinsville as the Round of 8 concludes.

Let’s look at the Xfinity 500 odds from the Martinsville Speedway and figure out which drivers are the best bets.

Xfinity 500 Odds

Driver Odds to Win Odds to Finish Top Three Odds to Finish Top Five
Martin Truex Jr. +450 +130 -180
Kyle Larson +500 +140 -160
Chase Elliott +600 +170 -135
Denny Hamlin +650 +190 -125
Ryan Blaney +700 +200 -115
Kyle Busch +800 +230 +100
Joey Logano +850 +240 +110
Brad Keselowski +900 +260 +110
William Byron +1100 +300 +130
Christopher Bell +2000 +400 +170
Kevin Harvick +2500 +700 +200
Alex Bowman +4000 +900 +260
Kurt Busch +4000 +900 +260
Tyler Reddick +5000 +1400 +500
Aric Almirola +6000 +1700 +750
Matt DiBenedetto +6000 +1700 +750
Ross Chastain +8000 +2200 +1000
Bubba Wallace +10000 +3000 +1200
Austin Dillon +13000 +3500 +1600

Odds as of October 28th at DraftKings

Martin Truex Jr. Favored in Xfinity 500 Odds

NASCAR drivers will run on the 0.526-mile Martinsville Speedway when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning around 2:00 PM EST.

At Kansas, Kyle Larson won the race again cementing his spot in the Championship Four on November 7th at Phoenix.

Kyle Larson benefits from the metrics, but Martin Truex Jr. is the favorite in the Xfinity 500 odds and the fastest among the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers. In his last seven races, the No. 19 has won three times. He has a 5.71 average finish, a 117.9 driver rating, and six top-tens.

Now, Truex Jr. also leads in laps led. His percentage there is 21.91%. Interestingly, the Joe Gibbs car is then followed by all three Team Penske cars when it comes to the average finish. Martin Truex Jr. likely has to win to get in or finish on the podium then pray for help.

Kyle Larson will do almost anything to win a race, as seen above. The idea that he takes it easy sounds crazy. Safe is death.

Chase Elliott starts second based on metrics and is the third betting favorite at +600 in the Xfinity 500 odds. Eight drivers have odds of +900 or shorter.

The final race of this three-race trilogy carries features short track racing (0.526 miles per lap) on the tri-oval. After that, there is Phoenix and that will determine your playoff champion.

Xfinity 500 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2020 Chase Elliott — Hendrick Motorsports Racing Brad Keselowski – Team Penske Chase Elliott — Hendrick Motorsports Racing
2019 Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing
2018 Joey Logano — Team Penske Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing Joey Logano — Team Penske
2017 Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing Joey Logano – Team Penske Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing
2016 Jimmie Johnson – Hendricks Motorsports Racing Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing Matt Kenseth – Joe Gibbs Racing

The race is normally 500 laps, but overtime has only occurred twice since 2009. 2007 featured a rain-shortened version of the race at 210 laps.

Joey Logano Betting Analysis at Xfinity 500

Sports bettors have a solid window of history when it comes to the Martinsville track. Yes, Joey Logano is in trouble when it comes to the NASCAR Cup Series odds.

The good news for the Team Penske driver is that Logano drives incredibly well here. He has one win and six top-ten finishes in seven races. That puts him up in good company. Logano starts fifth on Sunday at Martinsville.

So, does one go with the younger Busch, Logano, or someone else? It is an excellent question. The Joe Gibbs Racing cars tested well on this 750 hp package, even Christopher Bell.

Is Christopher Bell a Longshot Candidate at Xfinity 500?

Lost in all the chaos is the fact that Christopher Bell has four top-ten finishes in a row. He has survived the carnage and wrecks more than once. Also, at the Spring race in Martinsville, the No. 20 car began in 23rd and ended up way in seventh.

Also, Bell starts down in the 12th position on Sunday afternoon. His average finish is that of a contender and in the top ten overall. Bell is at +2000 currently for Sunday’s race at Martinsville.

The possibilities this weekend are endless for Sunday and do not worry about the weather for a change. It will be in the mid 60’s with Partly Sunny skies and slightly breezy conditions.

Finally, here are our best bets for the Xfinity 500:

  • Top Pick: Martin Truex Jr. to win (+450)
  • Medium Shots: Brad Keselowski (+900), William Byron (+1100)
  • Longshots: Matt DiBenedetto (+6000), Kurt Busch (+4000)
  • Kyle Busch Top 3 (+170), Kevin Harvick Top 5 (+200), Denny Hamlin Top 5 (-125)
  • More picks are always on social media @ChrisWasselDFS
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