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South Point 400 Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Oct 12, 2022 · 4:29 PM PDT

NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin on the track
Oct 9, 2022; Concord, North Carolina, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) races into turn 11 during the Bank of America ROVAL at Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NASCAR Playoff Chase enters the final segment with the South Point 400 set to run on Sunday, October 16th, 2022
  • Several contenders include Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and potentially Joey Logano
  • Below are the South Point 400 betting odds and trends ahead of Sunday afternoon

NASCAR heads to Las Vegas, Nevada, for race number 33 of the 2022 season. The Las Vegas Motor Speedway Course is a 1.5-mile intermediate course. The race distance totals about 400 miles over 267 laps. Now, who will be able to negotiate the Vegas course and can someone automatically advance to the finale in Phoenix?

The first race of segment three is a week after the Bank Of America Roval 400, where Christopher Bell found a way to slingshot past everyone to gain his entrance into the Round of  8.

Here are the South Point 400 odds.

South Point 400 Odds

Driver Odds to Win Podium Finish Odds  Top Ten Odds
Denny Hamlin +550 +155 -305
Chase Elliott +800 +230 -225
Christopher Bell +900 +255 -200
Ross Chastain +900 +255 -200
Kyle Larson +900 +255 -200
Tyler Reddick +900 +255 -200
Ryan Blaney +1000 +285 -186
William Byron +1100 +315 -175
Kyle Busch +1200 +350 -162
Martin Truex Jr. +1200 +350 -162
Joey Logano +1600 +450 -139
Bubba Wallace +1600 +450 -139
Kevin Harvick +2500 +700 -112
Daniel Suarez +4000 +1100 +115
Chase Briscoe +4000 +1100 +115
Austin Cindric +6600 +1600 +115
Austin Dillon +8000 +1800 +200
Ty Gibbs +8000 +1800 +200
Brad Keselowski +8000 +1800 +200
Erik Jones +8000 +1800 +190
Aric Almirola +10000 +2000 +325

Odds as of October 12th at Barstool Sportsbook. Get the Barstool Sportsbook bonus code.

Hamlin enters this race as a solid +550 favorite to win, followed by Chase Elliott at +600. After Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, and Tyler Reddick are all +900. This is an intermediate course where drivers can lead huge chunks of the race.

NASCAR drivers will start their engines on the 1.5-mile, 80-80-107 stage lap setup when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning around 2:30 pm ET on NBC Network.


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Denny Hamlin Advanced, Kyle Larson Did Not

Yes, this was a shocker. With Denny Hamlin looking solid on points, it was assumed that Kyle Larson would be safe. Then, disaster happened. Larson’s No. 5 car broke a toe hinge making it next to impossible to shift properly. He limped his car as Larson lost time in bunches. Eventually, Chase Briscoe was able to get enough points to pass Larson in the standings. The unthinkable happened. Kyle Larson was eliminated.

Now, Kyle Larson is third at Caesars this week at +700.  Denny Hamlin is still +550 at Caesars but Ross Chastain is at +950. The Caesars Sportsbook odds are just a reshuffling of some of the top drivers.

Who wins the October 16th race at Las Vegas? The “Round of 8” begins Sunday. Watch for those Toyota drivers.

South Point 400 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2021 Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing
2020 Kurt Busch – Chip Ganassi Racing Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing
2019 Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing Clint Bowyer – Stewart-Haas Racing Joey Logano – Team Penske
2018 Brad Keselowski – Team Penske Erik Jones – Joe Gibbs Racing Martin Truex Jr. – Furniture Row Racing

The Playoff Chase Has New Bumps

Sports bettors still love Chase Elliott. However, it will be interesting to see what Christopher Bell can do this round. The segment sets up well with Las Vegas, Homestead, and Martinsville. These are tracks Bell performs well on. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has improved in the NASCAR Cup Series odds. Remember, the two Joe Gibbs drivers are set up to advance. Now, can the Toyotas deliver on the late speed they had early in the season?

Ross Chastain has been quite fast here in testing but so have eliminated drivers Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson. Even Joey Logano has won twice on the track but not in the Fall. The September and October version races a bit different than the early season version. Keep that in mind for Sunday. See where drivers qualify first.

South Point 400 Predictions & Picks

The weather expects to be pleasant Sunday with sun and temperatures nearing 80.

Next-Gen intermediate racing featured more cautions than usual in the first race. More of the same is possible this time around.

Finally, look at Joe Gibbs Racing for the race win at +185. It is a different wrinkle of betting as Toyota has looked the strongest in Vegas at the two fastest races (2019 and 2021). Finally, do not sleep on Martin Truex Jr.

Here are our best bets:

  • Top Pick: Denny Hamlin to Win (+550 – Barstool)
  • Other Contenders: Ross Chastain (+900), Tyler Reddick (+900), Joey Logano (+1600), Martin Truex Jr. (+1200)


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