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2019 MLS Top Goalscorer Odds: Martínez Favored; Could A Rapids Player Win?

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 7:38 AM PDT

Carlos Vela playing for Mexico
Carlos Vela scored 14 goals last year and has odds of +2200 to be the 2019 MLS top goalscorer. Photo By Светлана Бекетова (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • Josef Martínez and Zlatan Ibrahimović are favored to win MLS top goalscorer in 2019
  • Do the new additions in Colorado stand a chance at the goal scoring crown?
  • Does LAFC’s Carlos Vela offer value at +2200?

Atlanta United’s Josef Martínez broke the MLS goal scoring record in 2018 with 31 goals. The league MVP and MLS Cup winner is back in Atlanta for 2019 and favored to win MLS top goalscorer once again at odds of +275.

Can Martínez win in back-to-back years, or will Zlatan claim the scoring title in his second MLS season?

2019 Top Goalscorer Odds

Player 2018 Goals Odds
Josef Martinez 31 +275
Zlatan Ibrahimovic 22 +350
Bradley Wright-Phillips 20 +500
Wayne Rooney 12 +600
Diego Rubio 8 +900
Gyasi Zardes 19 +1000
Raul Ruidiaz 14 +1200
Kei Kamara 14 +1600
Carlos Vela 14 +2200

*All odds taken on 02/28/19

While Martínez and Ibrahimović are heavy favorites to be top goalscorer, I took a look at the history of top goalscorers over the past ten years, and no player has improved in their following season after winning the Golden Boot in that time frame

Now, in the case of Martínez, after breaking the previous MLS record by four goals, he could certainly regress and still easily win the Golden Boot again.

Martínez improved from 19 goals in 2017, and led MLS in goals, expected goals (28.7), and shots on target (54) in 2018.

Martínez improved from 19 goals in 2017, and led MLS in goals, expected goals (28.7) and shots on target (54) in 2018.

With Ola Kamara transferred to China, the LA Galaxy should likely be playing with a single striker formation for most games. That striker will be none other than Zlatan Ibrahimović who scored 22 goals last year.

The Galaxy are one of the favorites for MLS Cup and Ibra will be key to their success. He took the third-most shots in the league last season and outperformed his expected goals by almost seven. He did all this while only playing 27 of 34 games.

While I expect plenty of goals by Zlatan in 2019, I just can’t bet on a 37-year-old turning 38, who’s known to skip matches on turf, playing for a team that failed to make the playoffs, to be the league’s top scorer at short odds.

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Rapids Add Goalscorers in Offseason

After scoring a league-worst 36 team goals in 34 games last season, it’s interesting to note that bookmakers have pegged two new Colorado Rapids players among the favorites for top goalscorer.

Much like, well, almost everyone who played on the Vancouver Whitecaps last season, Kei Kamara finds himself on a new team in 2019.

Kamara scored 14 last year in Vancouver and had 12 the year before with New England. While he had a career-year of 22 goals in 2015 with Columbus, what followed was seasons of five and seven goals.

Kamara will be counted on to lead the line for the Rapids this season. 2015 was the only season Kamara broke the 20-goal mark and now at 34-years-old, 2019 may not be the time that changes.

2015 was the only season Kamara broke the 20-goal mark and now at 34-years-old, 2019 may not be the time that changes.

Kamara is hardly the only new face in town, as Diego Rubio and his eight goals from 2018 have come over from Sporting Kansas City. With odds of +900, bookies have high expectations for the 25-year-old who has 17 goals in his three-year MLS career.

Bet on Another Big Year By Martínez

It seems unlikely Martínez can replicate his success of 2018. But then it also seems unlikely that he will suddenly drop off a cliff and not be in contention to win it again.

Since 2012, the MLS top goalscorer has finished with at least 22 goals each season and an average of 24.3 from 2012-17 before Martínez’s 31-goal outburst in 2018.

With 50 goals in two MLS seasons, his average of 25 should put him right there among the league leaders at the end of the season.

Martínez already had four goals in one preseason warm-up match and scored twice in Atlanta’s second leg match against Herediano in CONCACAF Champions League play Thursday night. Martínez looks like the best bet even at odds of +275.

From a value perspective though, odds of +1200 and +2200 on Raúl Ruidíaz and Carlos Vela are definitely appealing. Ruidíaz joined Seattle in July and despite only playing in 14 games, he scored 10 goals. Vela, meanwhile, was eighth in league scoring with 14 goals in 28 games and was a finalist for MLS MVP.

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