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2020 MLS Cup Playoffs Odds & Predictions for Every Play-In and Round One Game

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Mar 3, 2021 · 12:00 PM PST

Chris Mueller
Chris Mueller is Orlando City's top scorer this season with seven goals, but has only three in their nine-game unbeaten streak, as eight different players have found the net over that spell. Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire.
  • The MLS Cup Playoffs begin on Friday with two Play-In games between New England vs Montreal and Nashville vs Miami
  • Huge Round One match between MLS Cup champs Seattle Sounders and 2019 Supporters’ Shield winners Los Angeles FC highlights Round One
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets for each of this weekend’s Play-In and Round One games

It’s been a wild and wacky year in Major League Soccer. We saw a brief two-week regular season before the lockdown, followed by a summer tournament, shortened season, travel restrictions, postponements and tons of fixture congestion, but we are finally here. The MLS Cup Playoffs will begin on Friday with four teams competing in Eastern Conference Play-In matches.

The two winners will face Philadelphia and Toronto on Tuesday, November 24 in Round One. Between those dates, the rest of Round One will take place over Saturday and Sunday, with Seattle vs LAFC also taking place Tuesday.

Coming into the MLS Cup Playoffs, it’s Supporters’ Shield winners Philadelphia, followed by Seattle, LAFC and Orlando who lead the MLS Cup odds to win the 2020 MLS Cup which will be awarded on December 12.

MLS Cup Playoffs Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
New England Revolution vs Montreal Impact -163 +320 +375
Nashville SC vs Inter Miami CF +130 +240 +200
Orlando City SC New York City FC +150 +260 +160
Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls -110 +275 +260
Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes -163 +300 +400
Minnesota United vs Colorado Rapids +105 +260 +240
Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas -106 +260 +260
Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC +130 +260 +180

All odds taken Nov 17 at Bet365

New England Revolution vs Montreal Impact

The first Play-In game sees eighth-place New England hosting ninth-place Montreal at 6:30 pm EST on Friday. These teams have seen each other plenty in 2020 as this will be their fifth meeting when they play in the MLS Cup Playoffs.

Back in February Montreal were 2-1 winners at home. Then at the MLS is Back Tournament it was a 1-0 win for New England. The Revolution gained more success against the Impact after the restart with a 3-1 home win in September and 3-2 win on neutral ground on October 14.

Neither of these teams has been strong down the stretch. The Revolution are 1-1-3 (WDL) of late, while Montreal was 2-0-5, needing a Decision Day win over DC to clinch a playoff spot.

The Impact hasn’t kept a clean sheet in their past 15 games. While the Revolution who earlier this year played to many low-scoring games haven’t kept a clean sheet in eight games themselves.

New England’s star players have underperformed all year. But perhaps, in a one-off game at home, they may have just enough to edge out Montreal. A Revolution win to the tune of say 2-1 looks likely here for me.

Pick: New England win (-163)

Nashville SC vs Inter Miami CF

One expansion team will get at least two matches in this year’s playoffs. Nashville finished seventh in the East in their inaugural campaign in MLS while Miami squeaked into the final Play-In spot in tenth. It will be the third meeting between them this season with Nashville winning at home 1-0 on August 30 and the teams drawing 0-0 in Miami a week later. The two will also play Friday at 9:00 pm EST.

Nashville cashed the most UNDER tickets this year at 16-7 to UNDER 2.5 totals. They played excellent defense but struggled to score for much of the season. In their last eight games though they scored 13 goals and conceded eight. They scored three goals three times during that stretch including during a 3-2 Decision Day win over Orlando, one of the league’s best.

Inter Miami is the mirror opposite of Nashville with a 16-7 record to OVER 2.5 totals this year. Both teams have scored in each of Miami’s past six, with a final scoreline reading 2-1 in each of their past five. In Miami’s last 14 games they have scored in 13 but have also conceded in 13.

I don’t think either team will be able to keep a clean sheet in this one.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (+137)

Orlando City SC vs New York City FC

Into their first MLS Cup Playoffs, Orlando City, fourth, will host NYCFC, fifth in Round One play on Saturday at 12:00 pm EST. The teams were separated by just two points in the table but Orlando was undefeated against New York this season. The Lions won 3-1 at MLS is Back and drew 1-1 (in Orlando again) in October.

Despite a low-scoring 1-1 in that last match. both teams had plenty of chances and New York, on the road, held an advantage in attempts (18-9) and shots on target (8-2).

To me, this one has the potential to be the most exciting matches of the weekend in the MLS Cup Playoffs. Orlando’s form dipped in October, going winless in four, but then reeled off wins in three-straight. On Decision Day they dropped a surprising result to Nashville, a 3-2 loss and their first home loss of the season.

NYCFC ended the year with a wild 4-3 win over a desperate Chicago team, their fourth-straight win of the year. New York, alongside Philadelphia, were the most in-form teams to end of the season with 22 points  (7-1-2) in their last ten and 12 points (4-0-1) in their last five.

NYCFC may be missing a few pieces, but Maxi Moralez has a goal and three assists in his past four since returning from injury and Valentin Castellanos has four goals and two assists in his past two games. NYCFC has scored 13 goals during their current winning streak and should find the back of the net this weekend. But on the road, against the likes of Nani, Daryl Dike and Chris Mueller, they’ll surely concede as well.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-120)

Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls

Despite the condensed schedule these teams only met once this season and that came back in July during the MLS is Back Tournament. That resulted in a 2-0 victory for Columbus with goals by Zyasi Zardes and Lucas Zelarayan. They play at 3:00 pm EST Saturday afternoon in MLS Cup Playoffs Round One action.

The Red Bulls finished the season strong with just a single defeat in their final seven. They were 3-3-1 (WDL) during that stretch and claimed an impressive 2-1 win over Toronto on Decision Day. That’s likely their biggest win of the year, as when you look at their other eight wins, not many big names stand out. They beat New England on October 28 who are just one game over .500 and also NYCFC, but that was way back on August 20. None of Atlanta, Montreal, Miami, DC or Cincinnati came anywhere close to posting a winning record in 2020.

That could be trouble against a Columbus Crew side who are 9-0-1 (WDL) at home this season and who have seen some of their big-time players return to the lineup of late. The Crew have been inconsistent down the stretch but are the more talented side in this one. At home they’ve recently come away with 3-1 and 2-1 wins over elite opponents in NYCFC and Philadelphia and should have the edge here.

Pick: Columbus win (-110)

Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes

As we switch to the West, we have two teams, Sporting Kansas City, first place, and San Jose, eighth, who haven’t met at all this year. They’ll kick off the Sunday action at 4:00 pm EST.

Last year though, both teams won at home, SKC 2-1 and San Jose 4-1.

In the past nine matches (eight MLS/one US Open Cup), San Jose has just that single win as SKC is 7-1-1. Home teams have also won six of those nine meetings.

After the MLS is Back Tournament SKC suffered through an inconsistent patch which saw them go 2-2-4 (WDL) during August and September. Once the calendar turned to October though, Sporting became one of the league’s best going 6-1-1 and claimed first in the conference. Even on the road, where SKC played four of their final five games, they were 2-1-1. They ended the season with 4-0, 1-0 and 2-0 wins. That’s extremely solid and consistent play at just the right time.

They will likely be down key players Alan Pulido and Gadi Kinda, though both have missed time all season.

San Jose is anything but consistent. They were winless in eight this summer and suffered 6-1 and 5-0 blowout defeats. Then they won three in a row, lost 3-0, won 4-0 and finished the year 2-1-2 (WDL). When it clicks, things go well for the Earthquakes, but when it doesn’t, it unravels quickly. And 37-year-old Chris Wondolowski is still their leading scorer with just seven goals.

Both these teams generate shots. SKC is sixth in attempts (307) with San Jose seventh (299). While San Jose puts the fifth-most shots on target with 110, and SKC ranking 12th with 98.

I’m going to trust the more consistent SKC in this one. A simple win pays -163. But San Jose could knick a goal as well (both teams to score -188). An SKC win with both teams scoring will create some better value though at +187 odds.

Pick: SKC Win & Both Teams to Score (+187)

2024 MLS Cup Odds Tracker
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Minnesota United vs Colorado Rapids

Fourth-place Minnesota will host fifth-place Colorado on Sunday at 7:30 pm EST in the MLS Cup Playoffs.

This match pits together two teams in strong form as Minnesota finished the season undefeated in eight matches at 4-4-0, ending with a 3-0 home win over Dallas.

Colorado returned in the restart with a 3-3-2 (WDL) record before positive COVID-19 tests ravaged the club and forced the entire team to sit out a month. After looking rusty in their first two games back in 4-0 and 2-1 losses, they ended the season with three-straight wins, including their last two coming on the road.

The Loons took four points off the Rapids this year with a 2-2 draw at MLS is Back and a 2-1 home win as early as October 28.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Spy91T4veAQ

Minnesota enters the playoffs with home-field and in solid form. They’re undefeated in eight and have wins in three of four, scoring at least twice in all three. They closed out the regular season with a 3-0 home win over FC Dallas.

Minnesota hasn’t lost at home since August 21 and it was their only home loss of the year. Adrian Heath could have a number of selection concerns though. Already dealing with injuries, Minnesota are also likely without Romain Metanire, Jan Gregus, Robin Lod and Kei Kamara who will not be returned from quarantine after international duty yet. However, a recent plan has been discussed to potentially allow for international players to remain in a controlled environment on chartered flights back to allow them to not have to quarantine and be available to play. This could positively affect several teams that have players playing internationally.

The Rapids could be down forward Diego Rubio for the same reasons from an already limited attacking unit.

I don’t see much between these sides and could see them ending drawn after 90 or see value in a Rapids upset win. A double chance (win or draw) on the Rapids offers -138 odds as well.

Pick: Draw (+260)

Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas

Third-place Portland and sixth-place DC Dallas haven’t met in 2020. They’ll meet in the playoffs at 10:00 pm EST Sunday night. During the 2019 season, Dallas won the first meeting at home 2-1, while Portland won the second on their home pitch 1-0.

MLS is Back winners Portland were one of the league’s most consistent sides for much of the season but have sort of limped to the finish line. True, they’ve only lost two in seven, but they’ve also only won two in seven as well. Both of those wins came to the LA Galaxy and Vancouver Whitecaps, two non-playoff teams.

Already down Sebastian Blanco, then Jaroslaw Niezgoda and Jeremy Ebobisse being off a month with a concussion, Portland’s attacking options are running thin. Add to that potential absentees in Felipe Mora and Andy Polo from international duty and the question can be raised if the Timbers have the horses to make a deep playoff run or even get past Round One.

Dallas was riding a three-game win streak prior to ending the year with a 3-0 loss to Minnesota. Their road form could be a problem though as they’ve won just twice away from Toyota Stadium. That road form recently has been even more concerning. In their past six road matches they have a 1-0 road win over Nashville, but otherwise, have lost their other five, while being outscored 9-0.

I think Portland has just enough to get past Dallas at home in Round One.

Pick: Portland win (-106)

Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC

It’s wild that a Round One matchup in the MLS Cup Playoffs could feature last year’s MLS Cup champs against last year’s Supporters’ Shield winners. But with LAFC’s inconsistent form for much of the season, a seventh-place finish sees them traveling to Seattle to face the second-place Sounders on Tuesday at 10:30 pm EST.

We’ve seen this matchup a lot this year and this will be the fifth time these two lock horns. After LAFC won 4-1 at MLS is Back, Seattle was eager for revenge in August and won 3-1. Seattle would again take the three points in September by winning 3-0 at home. Both teams had important absentees on October 11 when LAFC evened the season series with a 3-1 win.

 

Take away the first-ever two meetings with these teams in 2018 which ended 1-0, the average goals scored when these two meet up over the last seven is now 3.86. Only one of those seven has seen fewer than three goals scored.

Seattle finished the year with only two losses in their past ten but was also just 1-3-2 (WDL) in their final six heading into Decision Day. With a shot at first in the West still on the line, the Sounders ended strong with a 4-1 win over San Jose.

LAFC may be rounding into form just at the right time with a 5-2-3 (WDL) in their final ten matches. Heading into Decision Day they still had an outside shot at home-field in the top four but could only manage a 1-1 draw with Portland.

 

Diego Rossi finished the year as the Golden Boot winner with 14 goals and also won the inaugural Young Player of the Year Award, but he, and others could be out for LAFC in this playoff match. Rossi, along with Brian Rodriguez, Jose Cifuentes and Diego Palacios are all away on international duty. Palacios has also tested positive for coronavirus while with Ecuador.

Seattle meanwhile could be out Gustav Svensson and Xavier Arreaga, but luckily not without Raul Ruidiaz. Since Ruidiaz has already had the coronavirus (during the last international break), he reportedly will not have to quarantine again this time upon returning to the team. That’s a huge get for Seattle who is nowhere near as good without the Peruvian.

With Carlos Vela back in the starting lineup and scoring goals already and Bradley Wright-Phillips still knocking in goals all season and winning the Comeback Player of the Year Award, LAFC should still have enough offense to go toe-to-toe with the Sounders.

If Ruidiaz plays, Seattle at home I think gets the slight edge. But if all those LAFC players do manage to play in this one as well, I think anything is on the table. Therefore, I think the much safer route is simply to back goals. Both teams scoring and OVER 2.5 looks good, but the better value could be with both scoring and OVER 3.5 at +115. You could also look to Ruidiaz or Vela as anytime goalscorers as well, both priced at -110.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-163)

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