Argentina vs France Odds & Prediction – World Cup Final
- The 2022 World Cup Final kicks off at 10:00 am EST Sunday, December 18 between Argentina and France
- Both teams have -110 odds to lift the World Cup
- Read on for the Argentina vs France odds and our Argentina vs France prediction
Argentina meets France at 10:00 am EST at Lusail Stadium in Qatar for the 2022 World Cup Final. Argentina advanced by beating Croatia in the semifinals, while France defeated Morocco to book their ticket to the final. We have the Argentina vs France odds and our World Cup Final prediction here.
Argentina is looking to win their country’s second World Cup and first since 1986, while superstar Lionel Messi is in line for his first win in what is surely his last World Cup. France has also won the World Cup twice before, and looks to become the first country to win in back-to-back tournaments since Brazil did it in 1958 and 1962. It would only be the third time that accomplishment has been reached, with Italy also doing so in 1934 and 1938.
Argentina vs France Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds | Odds to Advance |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | +175 | -110 |
| France | +180 | -110 |
| Draw | +210 | N/A |
Odds as of December 16 at FanDuel. Use this FanDuel promo code to bet on all World Cup matches.
Both Argentina and Brazil have been among the favorites to win World Cup 2022 for some time. They both entered the tournament as top three in the World Cup odds, with Argentina listed at +500 odds and France at +700. Oddsmakers now see the final as a coin flip. Argentina is technically a small favorite in the odds above to win in regulation at +175, compared to the +180 France. However, both are -110 to lift the trophy by any means.
If you’re curious what the World Cup public betting trends are, the public is backing Argentina to win the trophy with 68% of the handle, however, the betting splits are an even 50/50 in bet percentages.
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Over/Under and Spread
The Argentina vs France total is set at 2.5 goals. Oddsmakers at DraftKings aren’t expecting it to be a high-scoring final as the Under is juiced to -175. Over bettors can get some good plus-money odds at +140.
With each team given nearly identical odds to win the World Cup Final, you’re either getting no value on +1.5 spreads, or a big return for betting on a team to win by more than one goal at -1.5. Both teams are +600 odds to win by two or more goals and both are also -1000 odds on a +1.5 spread.
Argentina vs France Preview
While the early odds gave both of these teams a good shot of making it to this exact spot in the World Cup bracket, it didn’t always look like that would be the case.
Argentina got their tournament started with one of the biggest shocks in World Cup history, losing 2-1 to Saudi Arabia. Suddenly, there was a real threat that Argentina and Messi may not even advance out of the Group Stage. However, 2-0 wins over both Mexico and Poland eventually saw them topping Group C and pitting them against Australia in the Round of 16. A 2-1 win looks close, but Australia’s goal came late and by virtue of an own goal.
Argentina faced another scare in the quarterfinals. A 2-0 lead after 73 minutes looked to be enough to book their semifinals ticket, but the Netherlands bounced back with goals in the 83′ and 101′ minutes to force the match into extra-time and penalties, where Argentina would go on to win 4-3. Finally, the semifinals, pit Argentina against a feisty Croatian side. After an opening half hour where any result looked on the table, Argentina opened the scoring with a Messi penalty in the 34′. Julián Álvarez doubled the lead minutes later in the 39′, and added his second of the match in the second half for a 3-0 win.
Messi currently holds the joint-lead in goals (5) in the tournament with France’s Kylian Mbappe. Messi also has three assists. Meanwhile, Álvarez, and Olivier Giroud (FRA), each sit behind their teammates in goals with four each.
Mbappe and Giroud have powered France to a similar 5-0-1 record this tournament. They started strong with 4-1 and 2-1 wins over Australia and Denmark respectively. A 1-0 loss to Tunisia was shocking, however, Didier Deschamps’ side already had progression locked up and rested several starters.
France cruised past Poland 3-1 in the Round of 16, only allowing a 99′ minute penalty. They did have a scare or their own during the quarterfinals against a tough England side. A 2-1 lead looked to be enough after 78 minutes, however, Harry Kane had the ball on his foot from the spot in the 84′ minute and skied his penalty over the bar in what proved to be England’s undoing.
In an unlikely semifinal, France got on the board early (5′ Theo Hernández) and late (79′ Kolo Muani) and defeated the Moroccans 2-0.
Argentina vs France Statistics
| 5-0-1 | 2022 World Cup Record | 5-0-1 |
| 11.8/12 | xG / GF | 11.5/13 |
| 6.2/5 | xGA / GA | 9.6/5 |
| 83/39 | Shots / Shots on Target | 91/30 |
| 58.2% | Average Possession | 52.5% |
| 3 | Clean Sheets | 1 |
| 33 | Corners | 33 |
| 95 | Crosses | 122 |
| 12 yellows | Cards | 5 yellows |
Argentina vs France Lineups & Injuries
Neither side is dealing with any serious injuries, however, a flu bug has hit the French camp and could sideline some members of the squad.
Argentina Projected Lineup: Martinez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Acuna; De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister; Di Maria, Messi, Alvarez
Injuries: Gomez (ankle)
France Projected Lineup: Lloris; Kounde, Varane, Upamecano, T Hernandez; Tchouameni, Rabiot; Dembele, Griezmann, Mbappe; Giroud
Injuries: Hernandez (ACL), Upamecano (illness), Coman (illness), Varane (illness)
Argentina vs France Prediction
I started this tournament with a bet on “Any South American team” to win, along with a prediction of Messi lifting his first World Cup for Argentina.
Both of these teams performed well in xG, ranking second, Argentina, and third, France. Their xG stats are also in line with their actual goals. For France, their xGA is a concern though. While they only conceded five goals, their xGA of 9.6 is the highest in the tournament. Sure, they’ve played more games at this point, but second-worst Brazil is a whole 1.4 better at 8.2. Argentina has played just as many games as France and sits at just 6.2 in xGA.
A leaky defense had been a problem for France as they had allowed a goal in five straight matches prior to the Morocco match, which was their longest such streak since 2013.
Meanwhile, Argentina has already conceded goals to the likes of Saudi Arabia, Australia and Netherlands. None of those teams, or really any of the teams they’ve faced thus far can boast anything near the attacking talent of Les Bleus.
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If we look back to the last time these two played, it was France that came out on top by a 4-3 scoreline in the Round of 16 in the 2018 World Cup. Anything close to a similar result would easily cash a bet on “both teams to score” at -105 odds.
Outside of their surprising defeat to Saudi Arabia, Argentina has been on a torrid run of form. It’s their only loss in their past 42 matches.
It should feel like a home match for Argentina, as their fans have filled the stadiums during this tournament. Could it sway the refs to award some soft calls or penalties in Argentina’s favor? They have been awarded the most penalties (4) this tournament, scoring on three of them. And with Messi taking penalties, surely he’s worth a look for your Argentina vs France props.
Having bet Argentina prior to the tournament it’s hard for me to turn away from La Albiceleste now. It seems the stars are aligning for Messi to win his first World Cup. But this is a dream matchup for World Cup fans and France will have every chance to get their hands on the trophy once again as well. I can easily see goals from both sides and possibly extra-time or penalties to decide the winner.
Pick: Both teams to score (-105), Draw (+210)
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Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
