Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Odds, Lineups – Champions League Leg 2

• Chelsea hosts Borussia Dortmund in the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 tie on Tuesday, March 7th at 3:00 pm ET
• The visitors enter this match with a 1-0 advantage thanks to a brilliant, individual goal from Karim Adeyemi in the first leg
• Get our Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund prediction and odds below

The Champions League is back this week with Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund highlighting the Tuesday slate. Of course, we are in the second legs of the Round of 16, meaning some teams will be going home. Chelsea, who have the sixth-best odds to lift the cup at +2000, are one of those teams at risk. Borussia Dortmund snuck out of the first leg with a 1-0 victory, despite facing 21 shots and a 2.1 expected goal tally from Graham Potter’s side. Is Dortmund a good bet to win again in this week’s Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund prediction?

Nonetheless, Edin Terzić and company have enjoyed some great form as of late, winning their last ten consecutive games. It would be naïve to think that Borussia Dortmund could not hold this result out, even at Stamford Bridge. When they have won the first leg of a Champions League tie, they have advanced on five of six (83.3%) occasions. While they do not necessarily have a great record against English sides, they seem to be a much more cohesive unit than they have been in recent years which should prove helpful.

Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund Odds

Overall, Chelsea are still the home favorites here with moneyline odds of -110, or an implied win probability of 52.4%. This is quite rich for a side with only three victories from their last sixteen matches and are longshots in the Champions League odds. Furthermore, the Blues have lost their last three Champions League ties (excluding finals) when they have lost the first leg. Given the form Borussia Dortmund is on, look at their +0.5 spread which also has odds of -110. A win or regular time draw would see this play through and it might be the most realistic result bet. If you are feeling more confident in BVB, their draw no bet sits at +200.

Champions League odds as of  March 6th from DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund Over/Under

Additionally, this game could fall either way in terms of the goal total. The over on 2.5 total goals sits at -120, while the reverse option sits at -105. Chelsea have hit the under in 90% of their last ten matches, averaging 1.5 goals per contest. Their offense in particular has been abysmal, averaging 0.4 goals scored over the same span. Dortmund do like to open the game up a bit more, hitting the over on the same total in 60% of their last ten matches. Again, it is important to remember this is a win-or-go-home second leg, which means the game could go off the rails in the later stages. In turn, I would probably avoid a play on the total.

Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund Props – Both Teams Won’t Score

Another play I like is the “no” option on both teams to score, with odds of +110. This hit in our last time out in the Roma vs Juventus match, and I am going to ride it again in this high-stakes affair. The Blues are definitely able to keep a clean sheet in their own right, which means this bet could hit either way.

Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund Projected Lineups and Injuries

Chelsea Projected Lineup: Arrizabalaga, Chilwell, Chalobah, Koulibaly, Fofana, James, Fernandez, Kovacic, Mudryk, Felix, Havertz

Major Injuries & Absences: Mendy, Azpilizueta, Silva, Broja, Mount, Aubameyang, Badiashile, Pulisic (questionable), Kante (questionable)

Borussia Dortmund Projected Lineup: Meyer, Guerreiro, Schlotterbeck, Sule, Wolf, Reus, Ozcan, Can, Bellingham, Brandt, Haller

Major Injuries & Absences: Ryerson, Moukoko, Morey, Kamara, Malen, Duranville, Kobel (questionable)

Chelsea Do Not Have the Attackers to Pull Off a Miracle

Again, it just does not seem obvious that Chelsea have the offensive players to pull off a comeback here after losing in leg 1. In fact, they need to score twice to end this in regular time, a feat they have only accomplished once in their last 16. When you look at individual players like Raheem Sterling, Joao Felix, Kai Havertz and Mykhailo Mudryk, almost all of them underperform on their xG.

Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund Statistics

Stats in the table from 2022/23 Champions League play.

On the other hand, Dortmund’s top goal scorer this year is Jude Bellingham, a midfielder that has outperformed his xG by over four goals. You add Sebastian Haller into that mix-up top, with Adeyemi off the bench and you have a team that can pick their spots with confidence. Right now, Chelsea is a team playing with fear and worry.

Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction

Again, I am riding with Dortmund +0.5 and the “no” on both teams to score in my Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund prediction. While I don’t like a result play on the board, I do expect Dortmund to advance through to the quarters.

Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund Picks: Borussia Dortmund +0.5 (-110), “No” on BTTS (+110)

This is one of two matches on Tuesday. See our Benfica vs Club Brugge picks here for the other match here as well.