- France takes on Denmark in the first round of UEFA Nations League group play on June 3rd at 2:45 pm ET
- The match is being played at the recently infamous, Stade de France in Saint-Denis
- Get the France vs Denmark odds, analysis, and betting prediction below
The UEFA Nations League kicks off this week with a slew of games, including France vs Denmark on Friday afternoon. Of course, France are the defending Nations League champions following a 2-1 victory against Spain last fall.
To defend their title, they must first top Group A with the likes of Denmark, Croatia and Austria. However, as seen in the last year’s Nations League, Denmark are no easy draw. They finished second in a group with Belgium and England, accumulating ten points. With Christian Eriksen back to his best, this simply will not be a cookie-cutter victory for Didier Deschamps.
Moreover, you have to assume that both of these sides will already be looking forward to Qatar in November. Consequently, expect Kasper Hjulmand and Deschamps to rotate and test lineups a bit here. As Kevin de Bruyne so eloquently put this week, the Nations League is a set of glorified friendlies. Therefore, do not expect too many two-footed tackles or 60-yard sprints.
France vs Denmark Odds
Odds as of June 2nd at Barstool Sportsbook
France vs Denmark Moneyline, Over/Under & Futures
Overall, the moneyline odds favor France quite heavily at -150. France has been perfect in their last seven matches across all competitions in the last year, after bouncing out of the Euros to Switzerland last summer. Nonetheless, this is basically their first real test in quite some time. In fact, this is the first World Cup side they will have played since Ukraine in September.
— French Team ⭐⭐ (@FrenchTeam) June 2, 2022
Furthermore, there is some value in betting on these teams breaking the 2.5 total goal line. Those odds currently sit at +108, while the under in -130. If you combine each of France’s and Denmark’s last ten games, the over has hit 60% of the time.
Finally, even though this is Nations League play, you might want to start thinking about World Cup futures. France has the second-best odds to win the illustrious tournament at +550, while Denmark has +2800 odds.
The Danes’ Disadvantage on the Road
Now, my problems with Denmark start with their recent form on the road. In their last five away matches, they have lost three. While these were tougher opponents, you have to be critical of Denmark considering how they have played on the world stage lately.
France vs Denmark Statistics
|2.90||Goals per game||2.20|
|2.01||Expected goals per game||1.53|
|0.90||Goals allowed per game||0.90|
|0.68||Expected goals allowed per game||0.85|
|40.0%||Clean Sheet %||60.0%|
|15.3||Shots per game||12.2|
*From last ten matches
If you remember from last summer, they were actually beating England for nine minutes of a Euro semifinal. Additionally, they topped Group F in World Cup qualifying, gathering 27 of a possible 30 points. But, there are fine margins against a team like France so poor away form matters.
What a moment for Christian Eriksen! 🤩
The Brentford midfielder came on at the break for Denmark and scored within a minute on his return to international football.
📲 Follow live text coverage ⤵️#BBCFootball
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) March 26, 2022
To add to that point, Denmark started those three losses rather sluggishly on the road. For example, six of the seven goals Kasper Schmeichel conceded came in the first half.
France’s Midfield Selection
Conversely, on the French side, the only real concern for me is their midfield selection. With Paul Pogba out due to injury, there is a bit of a qualm about who to play next to N’Golo Kante in the middle of the park.
Deschamps loves to throw Adrien Rabiot in the French starting eleven. Honestly, for me, he is not that impressive. Consequently, against a strong Danish midfield three, he will get found out quite easily. As a result, Aurélien Tchouaméni seems like the obvious choice to go on and help win this match cleanly.
Aurélien Tchouaméni made more tackles and interceptions combined than ANY other player in Europe's top five leagues this season.
And he's streets ahead of his age group. 🤩
— Squawka (@Squawka) June 2, 2022
Still, Deschamps will not want to use all his tricks as these sides have to play each other in the group stage of the World Cup as well.
France vs Denmark Projected Lineups and Injuries
France Projected Lineup: Lloris, T Hernandez, Kimpembe, Varane, Kounde, Pavard, Kanté, Tchouaméni, Griezmann, Mbappé, Benzema
Injuries & Absences: Coman & Pogba
Denmark Projected Lineup: Schmeichel, Mæhle, Cristensen, Vestergaard, Wass, Hojbjerg, Nørgaard, Eriksen, Poulsen, Dolberg, Olsen
Injuries & Absences: Kjær
France vs Denmark Prediction
Overall, the best bet for this match is for France to score first and win the match. After a long season, this will not be the tidiest match of football, but France will see it out with a quick and early strike.
Pick: France to score first and win the match (-122)
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