Honduras vs Mexico Odds & Prediction – CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying Matchday 13
- Honduras hosts Mexico in the 13th round of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying on Sunday, March 27th at 7:05 pm ET
- Currently, Mexico sits in third place on twenty-two points, with qualification possible on Sunday, while Honduras still remain in last place on four points
- Get the Honduras vs Mexico odds, analysis, and betting prediction below
Only two rounds of matches remain in the 2022 CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers. All four matches in round thirteen will be played on Sunday, March 27th, as some teams prepare for what could be their golden ticket day for Qatar 2022. One of those teams is Mexico, who currently sit in third place of the Octagonal, ahead of their penultimate match against Honduras.
As a reminder, CONCACAF has three automatic qualification spots, with a fourth spot that faces the inter-confederation playoffs. In turn, Mexico has very favorable odds to advance to Qatar 2022. As of right now, they have the 16th best future odds to win the World Cup with odds of +10,000.
Despite coming to a stalemate in their last match against the United States, Tata Martino still has a few roads for qualification on Sunday. Firstly, Mexico can go through with a win against Honduras combined with a Costa Rica draw or loss. Additionally, they can go through on a draw only if either the United States beats Panama or Costa Rica loses.
Honduras vs Mexico Odds
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Honduras vs Mexico | HON +1.5 (-152) | MEX -1.5 (+128) | HON +700 | MEX -275 | DRAW +320 | Ov 2.5 (-112) | Un 2.5 (-110) |
Odds as of Mar 26th at Barstool Sportsbook
Overall, the moneyline odds heavily favor Mexico at -275. Furthermore, despite there only being one goal in El Tri’s last three World Cup Qualifiers, the over on 2.5 total goals in the favored choice with odds of -112.
Los Catrachos Showing Signs of Life
Now, we all know Honduras is not likely to win this match. However, this team is known to cause some anxiety when it comes down to the final few qualifying matches. While they have had an abysmal run in the 2022 octagonal, do not forget that it was their late cluster of points that knocked the United States out of 2018 World Cup contention.
📸 Las postales de #LaH🇭🇳 que ofrecen testimonio del entreno después de su retorno de #Panamá 🇵🇦.#Seguimos #LaHsomostodos #HoyHonduras #SiempreHonduras pic.twitter.com/qq0O1zUenH
— Selección Nacional de Honduras (@FenafuthOrg) March 26, 2022
In fact, the last time Honduras played Mexico at home was in that same qualifying round. More specifically, it was the last match of the round, in a game that Mexico lost 3-2. Honduras came back not once, but twice, in that match which ultimately brought them to fourth place.
Honduras vs Mexico CONCACAF WCQ Statistics
| 0.50 | Average goals scored | 1.17 |
| 1.57 (through 11 games) | Average xG | 1.88 |
| 1.92 | Average goals conceded | 0.67 |
| 1.48 (through 11 games) | Average xGA | 0.98 |
| 48.50% | Possession % | 60.75% |
| 13.24 | Shots per game | 15.67 |
Regardless, that match was four years ago. Since that infamous day, Mexico has defeated their Sunday opponents twice on matching 3-0 score lines.
In the reverse fixture this past October, El Tri controlled 76% of the ball and outshot Los Catrachos 24-6. Despite the dominating display, Mexico only held a 1-0 lead before halftime. If it were not for a Maynor Figueroa red card in the 49th minute, the game could have played out much differently.
With Honduras miles down the table, they really only have pride to play for. Nonetheless, against Panama on Thursday they clawed back from a 1-0 deficit to capture a surprising point away from home. Mexico might be the heavy favorites, but Los Catrachos is not ready to lie down and accept defeat.
Mexico Cannot Shake Sluggish Form
Conversely, Mexico have had their own struggles in qualifying. Tata Martino’s job is on very thin ice given their form in all competitions this year. Not only are they 2-2-2 in their last six World Cup Qualifiers, they also managed to lose two finals to the United States; that in itself is unprecedented.
Per medical recommendation, HC Gerardo Martino will not make the trip to Honduras for Sunday's match in San Pedro Sula.
Coach Jorge Theiler will be on the sidelines for the clash. #HechoDeLosMexicanos | #FMFporNuestroFútbol pic.twitter.com/HMvFjms4vE
— Mexican National Team (@miseleccionmxEN) March 25, 2022
Moreover, Mexico are just not producing goals at an acceptable rate. Their last goal from open play was against Jamaica on the 27th of January. With Raul Jimenez, Jesus Corona and Hirving Lozano up top, that is just not good enough.
Finally, the midfield battle in this one is going to be one to watch out for. While Hector Herrera lurks in the midfield for Mexico, the performances of Kervin Arriaga and Bryan Acosta lately have boosted Honduras. Mexico not only need to dominate possession, they need to create worthwhile chances for their attackers.
Honduras vs Mexico Best Bet
Overall, the best bet for this match is the under on 2.5 total goals with odds of -112. This pick has good value and is the most probable, given the mediocrity of these two attacks as of late.
Pick: Under 2.5 total goals (-112)
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Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
