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Liverpool vs FC Porto Odds & Prediction – Champions League Group Stage Matchday 5

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Nov 23, 2021 · 8:24 AM PST

Liverpool vs FC Porto
Liverpool's Sadio Mane, left, celebrates with Virgil van Dijk after scoring his side's second goal during the Champions League group B soccer match between FC Porto and Liverpool at the Dragao stadium in Porto, Portugal, Tuesday, Sept. 28, 2021. (AP Photo/Luis Vieira)
  • Liverpool host FC Porto in the Champions League’s fifth Matchday on Wednesday, November 24th, at 3:00 pm EST
  • Liverpool have already secured victory in Group B with four wins, but Porto still have their work cut out of them with only a one-point lead over Atletico Madrid
  • Get the odds, our analysis, and betting prediction below

The Champions League is back this week and on Wednesday afternoon, Liverpool faces Porto in their second encounter. The reverse fixture fell heavily in Liverpool’s favor, a trend far too common between these sides over the past three years.

Once again, Liverpool’s front three decimated the Dragรตes’ defense, scoring all five goals. Porto’s goalkeeper, Diogo Costa, had a nightmare on the day, creating two errors that led directly to a Liverpool goal.

Liverpool vs FC Porto Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Liverpool vs FC Porto LIV -1.5 (+280) | FCP +1.5 (-330) LIV -110 | FCP +285 | DRAW +290 Ov 2.5 (-135) | Un 2.5 (+110)

Odds as of Nov 22nd at DraftKings

However, since the Reds have already qualified for the knockout stages and won Group B, they have far less incentive to go on and get three points.

While reward money and pride in front of the Anfield faithful is still up for grabs, expect a heavily rotated starting eleven from Jurgen Klopp. Porto desperately needs these points with Atletico Madrid hot on their tails, so the importance of this match cannot be understated.

How Klopp Will Line Up at Anfield

The big question in this match is who plays for Liverpool and how does that affect the match? Klopp is as unpredictable as England’s weather and frankly, his starting eleven is totally up in the air. Liverpool’s pressure right now comes from the Premier League as they try to keep up with Chelsea and Manchester City. In turn, expect a handful of changes to this side.

Starting out at the back, do not be surprised to see Alisson Becker take a back seat to Caoimhin Kelleher. But, do not worry about how this will affect the defense. The Irish goalkeeper only allows 0.40 goals per 90 minutes and keeps a clean sheet in 60% of matches he plays in, numbers that put him in the 99th percentile for goalkeepers.

In defense, Liverpool could line up with a backline of Andy Robertson, Joel Matip, Ibrahima Konate and Neco Williams. Kostas Tsimikas seems to be the on-form left-back at the moment, which is why I think he will start against Southampton this weekend. Still, Robertson’s 2.92 shot-creating actions per 90 make him more than suitable.

The midfield for Liverpool should stay fairly standard with plenty of options. However, in attack, I would expect a combination of Taki Minamino, Divock Origi and either Mo Salah or Sadio Mane.

Porto’s Horrific History Versus the Reds

One thing that cannot go unmentioned is how awful Porto have been against Liverpool in recent years. Somehow, they have managed to draw each other in the knockout rounds on two separate occasions since 2018. With this year’s result included, Liverpool has won four and drawn one against Porto.

Liverpool vs FC Porto Champions League Statistics

FC Porto
3.25 Goals per game 0.75
2.43 Expected goals per game (xG) 1.13
1.25 Goals allowed per game 1.50
0.93 Expected goals allowed per game (xGA) 1.18
67.3% Possession % 43.9%
88.1% Passing Accuracy % 76.1%
18.5 Shots per game 10.5

Regardless, what is more glaring about this head-to-head fixture is the one-sided scoreline. In fact, Liverpool have managed to outscore Porto 16-2 in those five matches. Of those 16 goals, only two were scored by players not named Roberto Firmino, Mo Salah or Sadio Mane. With a massive rotation in the squad, Liverpool might find it difficult to replicate those heavy-handed results.

Porto’s Strong Form Is Meaningless

Since their first loss to Liverpool, Porto have had an exquisite run of form. They have won seven out of nine, despite losing in surprising fashion to Santa Clara and drawing to AC Milan.

Unfortunately, none of that matters in a European night under the floodlights at Anfield. Liverpool’s defeat to West Ham was a major wake-up call, and they obliterated a bright Arsenal team this weekend. Even the likes of Origi and Minamino are scoring goals for the Reds as of late. Luis Diaz and Mehdi Taremi are legitimate threats to Liverpool’s backline, but in reality, Porto should be playing for a draw.

Liverpool vs FC Porto Best Bet

Overall, the best bet in this match is the Liverpool moneyline with odds of -110. These are great odds for any Liverpool side, rotated or not. Anytime Liverpool loses, I expect them to go on a scintillating run of good performances. After a 3-2 defeat to West in the EPL, they followed that up with a 4-0 romp over Arsenal on Saturday. Porto is no exception to that rule.

Pick: Liverpool moneyline (-110)

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