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Manchester City vs Chelsea Odds & Prediction – Champions League Final

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated May 31, 2021 · 7:05 AM PDT

Man City vs Chelsea
Chelsea's Timo Werner, right, challenges for the ball with Manchester City's Benjamin Mendy during the English FA Cup semifinal soccer match between Chelsea and Manchester City at Wembley Stadium in London, England, Saturday, April 17, 2021. (Adam Davy, Pool via AP)
  • The 2021 UEFA Champions League Final takes place on Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 3:00 pm EST
  • It’s the first final for Man City, while Chelsea last reached this stage in 2012, where they won the title
  • Read on for the odds and our full match preview and best bets for Saturdays Man City vs Chelsea match

The UEFA Champions League Final is finally here and kicks off at 3:00 pm EST on Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 3:00 pm EST. It’s an all-England final for just the third time in history, but the second in the past three seasons when Manchester City meet Chelsea at the Estádio do Dragão in Portugal. A total of 16,500 fans will be allowed entry for Europe’s biggest match.

The last time two Premier League sides met, was in 2019 when Liverpool defeated Tottenham 2-0.

The Champions League title has been an elusive trophy for City and one manager Pep Guardiola will hope to capture for the first time in their history. In recent years City has reached the quarterfinals of the competition in each of 2018, 2019 and 2020. Meanwhile for Chelsea, it was only 2012 when they last tasted European supremacy, defeating Bayern Munich in penalties after being drawn 1-1 in regulation.

Manchester City vs Chelsea Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total To Lift Trophy
Manchester City vs Chelsea MCI -0.75 (+118) | CHE +0.75 (-141) MCI -114 | DRAW +240 | +360 Ov 2.5 (+132) | Un 25 (-162) MCI (-210) | CHE +165

Odds as of May 27 at DraftKings

Man City Near-Perfect in March to Final

Man City’s path to the final included topping Group C with a 5-1-0 record while only conceding a single goal. In the knockout rounds they swept aside Borussia Monchengladbach by a 4-0 aggregate in the round of 16. They then defeated another German side in Borussia Dortmund 2-1 in both quarterfinal legs. The Citizens then travelled to Paris to face PSG in the semifinals and claimed a 2-0 first leg triumph. After going down early in leg one, second half goals from Kevin De Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez gave City the advantage.

Back in England for leg two, on a hail-filled pitch, and moments after a near PK for PSG, City broke out of their end and pushed downfield on a run which ended in a deflection into the path of Mahrez to give City a 1-0 lead just 11 minutes in. Mahrez would add a second, his fourth of the competition in the 63′ for a 2-0 City lead and eventual win.


Without a pure striker in Pep’s starting XI, the four goals from Mahrez is actually a team-best in the tournament, tied alongside Ferran Torres with four tallies of his own. De Bruyne, Phil Foden and İlkay Gündoğan all have three. While the likes of Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus have scored just twice each. Domestically, it was Gündoğan who led City with 13 goals on the season. And while Aguero is unlikely to start for Pep in this one, if City needs a goal, there’s no one better to bring off the bench than the club’s all-time scorer who has 15 career goals against Chelsea in 22 matches.

Foden, alongside Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema, have totalled the most shots on target in the Champions League with 17. Foden also leads in goal-creating actions (9) in the tournament. De Bruyne (4) and Foden (3) are City’s top set-up men this competition.

For City, a Champions League title would not only be the prize jewel for the City Football Group, but would also top a season which saw Man City win the Premier League title and Carabao Cup. City are again early favorites to win the EPL title next year.

Tuchel Reaches Final for Second Year

Chelsea emerged from Group E at 4-2-0, a single point ahead of Sevilla before edging past Atlético Madrid 1-0 and 2-0 and in the round of 16. A 2-0 road win in Portugal over Porto in the quarterfinals was enough to advance into the semis despite a 1-0 leg two defeat in England.


Goals by Christian Pulisic and Karim Benzema cancelled each other out for a leg one 1-1 draw against Real Madrid. In leg two, Timo Werner (28′) and Mason Mount (85′) paced Chelsea to a 2-0 win and a spot in the finals for the first time since 2012.

Truthfully though, despite the scorelines, Chelsea could’ve easily run away from Madrid as they always looked the stronger side. Though they advanced on a 3-0 aggreate, they dominated the expected goals (xG) category at a combined 4.3 – 0.6. In fact, in their 12 UCL matches, only three times did they allow an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.0 or higher, and only once during the knockout round.

Man City vs Chelsea Champions League Stats

Man City
11 Wins 8
1 Draws 3
0 Losses 1
25 Goals 22
4 Goals Against 4
163 Attempts 138
72 Attempts on Target 57
58% Average Possession 52%

For Chelsea, it’s Olivier Giroud (6) and Timo Werner (4) who have been their standout offensive performers from a goals standpoint. Kai Havertz has tallied three assists.

And for manager Thomas Tuchel, it’s two finals in two years, after he led PSG to the finals against Bayern last year.

Recent Man City & Chelsea Matchups Last 2 Seasons

Date Competition Result
May 8, 2021 EPL Chelsea 2-1
April 17, 2021 FA Cup Chelsea 1-0
January 1, 2021 EPL Man City 3-1
June 25, 2020 EPL Chelsea 2-1
November 23, 2019 EPL Man City 2-1

Man City vs Chelsea Best Bets

There could definitely be an argument for a low-scoring first half. Both teams are strong in the opening 45 with Man City only being behind four times all EPL season at the half and Chelsea ten. The goal differential in the opening 45 minutes though greatly favors Man City by a +27 margin.

Defensively, in 26 of 38 EPL matches this season, City have allowed zero first-half goals, conceding just 13 overall. For Chelsea, 20 times they’ve had an opening half clean sheet, conceding 20 goals in the first frame overall.

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For all the offensive talent on both these sides, betting UNDER 2.5 totals was the more profitable endeavor overall this season. Man City were 19-19 to the UNDER, while Cheslea was 21-17.

Man City has transformed into a more tactical side this season, as opposed to the more swashbuckling high-scoring nature of years past. Not having a true striker in the lineup likely contributed to this, but it hasn’t mattered. Guardiola has adapted the team to fit this style.

Meanwhile, Tuchel has had much less time to mold his Chelsea side, taking charge of the team only on January 26. But, he has quickly built them into a disciplined side which doesn’t give up much. In the 29 matches overall since he took over Chelsea matches have gone UNDER 2.5 totals at a 23-6 clip. They’ve only conceded multiple goals twice. Once losing 5-2 to West Brom back in April and again on the final day of the EPL season, a 2-1 loss to Aston Villa.

As mentioned earlier, Chelsea have only given up more than 2.0 in xGA three times in the tournament, however, City can top that, having only done so twice themselves. That came once to PSG and once to Dortmund—two more dynamic offensive sides with world-class strikers, something Chelsea does not possess in their ranks. Then again, nor do City.

The past two finals have been low-scoring despite goals being expected between Bayern Munich and PSG which ended 1-0. While the last all-England final ended 2-0 but was just 1-0 until the 87′ minute.

To me this looks like it could be a similar storyline for the 2021 final. These teams know eachother well, and while Chelsea have defeated Man City in their past two meetings, it was a rotated City lineup and seeing Pep lose three times in a row to the same opponent seems unlikely. But both sides have also been very tight defensively and with so much on the line this one should be tight, especially early and could result in a low-scoring City win. City have been knocking on the door of European supremacy for years now and this looks like their time.


Man City Win (-114)
Half-time Draw (-103)
Under 2.5 (-162)
Anytime Scorers – İlkay Gündoğan (+255), Riyad Mahrez (+285), Phil Foden (+300)

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