Manchester City vs Real Madrid Expert Pick, Score Prediction & Best Odds

• The Champions League knockout stage starts with a bang as Man City hosts Real Madrid on Tuesday, Feb. 11
• The first leg of the two-game aggregate-goals matchup kicks off at 3:00 pm ET/8:00 pm GMT at Etihad Stadium
• See the Man City vs Real Madrid expert picks, score prediction, and best available odds for Feb. 11

Both Manchester City (3-2-3, 11 PTS, +4 GD) and Real Madrid (5-0-3, 15 PTS, +8 GD) had designs on a top-eight finish and automatic berth in the Champions League round of 16 when the 2024-25 season started. But after relatively disappointing eight-match group stage, the two titans of Europe find themselves squaring off in the round of 24. The first leg of their two-game aggregate-goals matchup kicks off at Etihad Stadium in Manchester at 3:00 pm ET on Tuesday. The Man City vs Real Madrid odds slightly favor the Citizens at home.

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Man City vs Real Madrid Score Prediction & Expert Picks

• Score prediction: Man City 2-2 Real Madrid
• Best bet: Over 3.5 goals (+115) at BetMGM
  

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Man City and Real Madrid have met six times in the Champions League in the last three seasons – a trio of two-leg knockout stage battles in each of 2022, 2023, and 2024 – and the goals have flowed like a faucet. The teams have averaged 4.0 goals per game, combined, in those six matches. All six games featured at least two goals, and only one saw either team keep a clean sheet (a 4-0 Man City home victory in May 2023).

Real Madrid advanced last year (5-4 on aggregate after penalties) and in 2022 (6-5 on aggregate after extra time), while Man City advanced in 2023 (5-1 on aggregate).

While recent history is part of my bet on over 3.5 goals, so is current form, especially the lack of defensive efficacy on the part of City.

Man City has conceded at least one goal in five straight matches, all competitions, and allowed 12 total in that span (2.4 GA/G). They allowed 14 goals in eight matches during UCL group-stage play. The four-time defending EPL champions are sitting a disappointing fifth domestically and it’s entirely because of their defense. The Citizens have allowed 35 goals in 24 matches, which is four more than any other team in the top seven.

At the same time, the Citizens have scored a stunning 18 goals in their last four home games (4.5 GPG). Yes, that includes an 8-0 shellacking of League Two side Salford in the FA Cup. But they also scored four against West Ham, three against Chelsea, and three against Club Brugge. And – more on this later – they’ll have the luxury of facing a less-than-healthy Madrid backline.

Erling Haaland continues to stake his claim as best active goalscorer on the planet. He led Man City with six goals in group-stage play and has another 19 in EPL play (two back of Liverpool’s Mo Salah).

Real Madrid’s defense has been better than Man Citys, but by no means does it resemble 2005 Chelsea. Los Blancos allowed 12 goals in UCL group play and have conceded 22 in 23 La Liga matches. They’ve conceded at least a goal (four total) in three straight, all competitions. Vinícius Júnior had a team-high seven goals in the group stage while Kylian Mbappe has a team-high 16 in La Liga action (three behind Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski).

Expected Man City vs Real Madrid Lineups

Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti is dealing with injuries to myriad defenders, including Antonio Rudiger, Dani Carvajal, , Eder Militao, and Lucas Vazquez. This has forced him to use midfielders Aurelien Tchouameni and Federico Valverde in central defense and right back, respectively, something that is likely to continue on Tuesday.

Man City is battling plenty of injuries, as well. In addition to a season-ending injury to Rodri, the Citizens are likely going to be without Nathan Aké, Nico Gonzalez, and Jeremy Doku in the first leg against Real Madrid.

The table below shows where bettors can find the best odds at legal North American sportsbooks.

Best Man City vs Real Madrid Odds

Man City is a slim +130 favorite to win on the three-way moneyline with Madrid as long as +187 and the draw at +280. The two-way moneyline market (aka draw no bet) lists Man City at -134 and Madrid at +114.

The total-goals O/U favors a high-scoring game which, as mentioned, these teams have been prone to playing in recent history. Braver bettors than I could get under 2.5 at +170. All of the total goals odds and prices in the table above are from FanDuel on Feb. 11. FanDuel has the best odds available for all under bets but, as mentioned at the top, bettors can get over 3.5 at +115 at BetMGM.

Despite the fact that one of the will be headed home before the round of 16, City and Real Madrid are both top-six favorites in the latest Champions League title odds. Man City sits at +1000 while Real Madrid are +800 to win what would be a record-extending 16th European title. Man City is still on one (2023).